SUMMARY

Pakistan became an independent state in 1947, when the colony of British India was partitioned into one predominantly Muslim state (present-day Pakistan and Bangladesh) and one predominantly Hindu state (present-day India). Since the country’s formation, the Government of Pakistan has fought various groups such as MQM, Lashkar-e-Islam and more recently with TTP, HGB, and IMP over government power. The government has also been engaged in armed conflict over the status of the territory known as Balochistan with various separatist rebel groups. Pakistan has also experienced one interstate conflict with India over the area of Kashmir that both countries claim is part of their respective territories. The conflict first broke out in 1948 and has continued with varying intensity since then. In May 2025, clashes escalated after a period of less fighting following a ceasefire agreement in 2021. A new ceasefire was agreed upon on 10 May 2025.

Since 1989, Pakistan has experienced the interstate, intrastate, non-state and one-sided categories of UCDP organized violence.

2025

In 2025, the trend of escalation present in Pakistan for the past years continued. The total number of fatalities reached over 3300 which made 2025 the deadliest year in the country since 2014.

The main reason for the continued escalation in violence was related to the state-based conflict category. Compared to 2024, the number of recorded fatalities in state based conflicts increased steeply while all active conflicts continued to escalate. The conflict between the Government of Pakistan and BRAS over the territory of Balochistan continued and reached the highest number of fatalities since the conflict was first recorded in the UCDP. The conflict over governmental power remained the deadliest state-based conflict in Pakistan with 2025 becoming the most fatal year in the conflict since 2014. The TTP, the primary group in the conflict, and HGB continued their fight against the government. Fighting primarily took the form of shootings, suicide attacks, and the use of landmines with intelligence based operations being carried out by the Pakistani government. In April 2025, a new alliance IMP was announced, combining forces from Lashkar-e-Islam, HGB and Harakat-e-Inqila-e-Islami.

The conflict between the Government of Pakistan and the Islamic State in Pakistan became active again in 2025, after a one-year lull.

In May 2025, the interstate conflict with India over the area of Kashmir escalated after a period of less fighting following a ceasefire agreement in 2021. A new ceasefire was agreed upon on 10 May 2025.

Instances of one-sided violence were primarily connected to the conflict in Balochistan. BRAS targeted civilians they claimed were government employees, informants, and non-Baloch residents and workers. Moreover, in 2025, the government of Pakistan became active in one-sided violence for the first time in UCDP data, following attacks against civilians in Balochistan carried out by state-affiliated death squads.

Periods of violence

Since 1989, Pakistan has experienced periodical violence with the period between 2007 and 2016 being especially violent. During this period, the number of deaths never fell below 1000 in the country. Between the years 2008 and 2014, the number of fatalities never fell below 2900. The incredible violence intensity during this period was primarily caused by violence in the state-based category. Both the conflict over Balochistan and the conflict over government were active during the entire period with a vast majority of deaths occurring within the governmental conflict.

The year 2009 stands out as the year with the highest number of recorded deaths in the entire post-1989 period. In 2009, Pakistan was hit by the combination of an escalating intrastate governmental conflict as well as escalating violence in both the intrastate conflict between the Government of the United States and al-Qaida and the intrastate conflict between the Government of the Afghanistan and the Taleban that both took place partially on Pakistani territory.

Starting in 2007, Pakistan experienced a wave of one-sided violence that began to decrease in 2014. The violence was mainly perpetrated by five groups: BLA, IS, Lashkar-e-Islam, LeJ, and TTP. The most violent year, 2013, left over 800 civilians dead following acts such as bombings and explosions perpetrated by TTP, LeJ, and BLA.

The separatist conflict over the territory of Balochistan began in the 1970s but reignited in 2004 following increased Baloch nationalism. The conflict has been ongoing since. Initially, the government fought against the groups BLA, BLF, and later BRA. In 2019, the groups merged into the BRAS that has operated since. The violence has fluctuated in intensity over the years, but has seen a clear upward trend starting in 2018. In 2025, fatality numbers reached its highest level ever, with more than 500 fatalities recorded.

Following 2009, the number of deaths in Pakistan were on a downward trend for almost 10 years until 2019 when fatalities began to increase again. The trend was primarily due to increased violence in the state based category. In 2019 and 2020, the interstate conflict between the government of Pakistan and the government of India became active once again which resulted in many fatalities. In addition, both the conflict in Balochistan as well as the conflict between the government and the Islamic State have continued. With the exception of the 1990s, the conflict over government has consistently been the most fatal state based conflict in Pakistan. Since 2019, TTP has been the primary group fighting against the government. HGB has been involved in the conflict since 2023 with TJP also fighting in 2023. In April 2025, a new alliance IMP was announced, combining forces from Lashkar-e-Islam, HGB and Harakat-e-Inqila-e-Islami.

Pakistan also experienced high levels of non-state violence between different groups such as IMU, TTP, and Lashkar-e-Islam, as well as tribes such as Bangesh, Mangal, and Turi beginning in the late 2000s. Beginning in 2023, there have been sectarian conflict between Shia and Sunni communities in Kurram district. The conflict escalated dramatically in the second half of 2024, and UCDP recorded over 200 deaths in the conflict. Negotiations took place during the year with ceasefires being reached in late 2024.

Pre-1989 Conflicts

Prior to 1989, Pakistan experienced one interstate conflict and two intrastate conflicts. The interstate conflict between India and Pakistan emerged quickly after each state’s respective formation as they both claimed the territory of Kashmir. The conflict reached the intensity of war in 1947, 1965, and 1971. The conflict came to dominate Pakistan’s first 60 years as a sovereign state and has continued past 1989.

Pakistan experienced two armed intrastate conflicts prior to 1989, both in the 1970s. The first conflict took place in 1971 between the Pakistani government and the Mukti Bahini (Liberation Force) movement over the territory then known as East Pakistan. The conflict resulted in the secession of East Pakistan and the formation of the independent country of Bangladesh in 1971. Additionally, the Pakistani government has fought Baloch separatists since before 1989. The armed conflict over the territory of Balochistan began in 1974 and ended in 1977 before resuming again in the 2000s.