SUMMARY
The interstate conflict over Kashmir has been marked by both the Government of India and the Government of Pakistan claiming the territory as part of their respective countries. High tensions and fighting have characterized the conflict; however, the beginning of the 21st century saw dialogue between the parties, and both demonstrated a willingness to uphold the ceasefire instituted in 2003. Despite the commitment to maintaining the ceasefire, the conflict steadily increased in intensity from 2013 onward, remaining active for eight consecutive years. Following particularly intense clashes along the Line of Control (LoC) in the second half of 2020, the parties agreed to a ceasefire on 25 February 2021.
Several reports of ceasefire violations emerged during the following years, but the conflict remained inactive until 2025. In late April 2025, a terrorist attack against Hindu tourists near Pahalgam in the Indian-administered part of Kashmir led India to launch Operation Sindoor against Pakistan, which it accused of supporting cross-border terrorism. Over four days in May, the parties carried out strikes along the Line of Control, making the conflict active, before agreeing to a ceasefire on 10 May.
IN DEPTH
Post-independence origins: The first Kashmir War
Three of four wars fought between India and Pakistan since independence have been over the territory of Kashmir. The conflict has its origin in the state's disputed accession to India following the turbulent partition of the subcontinent. In the period of indecisiveness following Britain's departure in August 1947, both India and Pakistan voiced their desire for the strategically important Kashmir territory. On both sides, emergent national identities were important rationalizations behind this claim. Pakistan, which was formed on the basis of the Muslim demand for a separate state, saw the overwhelmingly Muslim Kashmir as a natural part of its territory. For India, Kashmir's importance lay, among other things, in the fact that India's claim to be a secular state would be strengthened by the inclusion of the predominantly Muslim territory. For the Kashmiri ruler Maharaja Hari Singh, the choice of accession to either of the states was subordinate to the option of Kashmir's independence. However, indecisiveness gave way to a sense of urgency in the face of a tribal invasion from Pakistan and an uprising in Western Kashmir. The Maharaja was forced to request military assistance from India, and this was admitted on the condition of Kashmir's accession to that state.
The Indian troop deployment was met by the protests of the Pakistani government. The controversy soon escalated into a full-scale war between India and Pakistan, as Pakistani soldiers decided to join the Pakistani irregulars in Kashmir. UN mediation brought an end to the war and established a UN monitoring mission along the ceasefire line, agreed upon in 1949, and dividing the territory into Indian and Pakistani controlled sections. This ceasefire line, called the Line of Control, was initially referred to as a temporary solution of Kashmir's accession to India but has effectively defined the de facto borders of Kashmir since then.
The unsettled issue of the territorial status of Kashmir has remained at the core of the incompatibility between India and Pakistan up until today. Pakistan believed then, and has continued to insist, that the status of Kashmir ultimately should be decided on through a plebiscite under UN auspices – as was originally agreed upon by India in the 1949 settlement. Pakistan has projected the Kashmir conflict as an unfinished agenda of partition. India has argued that the option of a plebiscite has become obsolete and impossible to implement. India's government has claimed that "self-determination" in the context of a pluralistic state like India can only mean "internal self-government within the overall constitutional framework."
Renewed war in 1965 and 1971, and developments in the 1980s
After the first war, the tension and military presence remained high. The dispute over Kashmir re-escalated into armed conflict in 1964–1965, triggered by the infiltration of Pakistani-controlled guerrillas into Indian-held Kashmir. In 1971, fighting between the two states broke out again, this time in connection to the independence struggle in East Pakistan, eventually leading to the creation of Bangladesh. During late 1971, fighting between India and Pakistan took place across both borders, affecting areas in West Pakistan, northern India and East Pakistan. Both in 1965 and in 1971, fighting between India and Pakistan reached the intensity of war. Following the 1971 war, the position of the Line of Control (LoC) dividing the Indian and Pakistani-controlled sections of Kashmir had shifted. In July 1972, the parties signed an agreement confirming the new ceasefire line, but disagreement arose regarding the continued mandate of UNMOGIP, the UN mission monitoring the LoC. While Pakistan embraced UNMOGIP’s continued presence, India argued its mandate had ceased following the adjustment of the LoC. However, following a decision by the UN Secretary-General, the monitoring mission remained in place.
In the early 1980s, Indo-Pakistani relations worsened following a dispute over the Siachen glacier. The dispute stemmed from the inadequate demarcation of the Line of Control in this geographically inhospitable area. Both countries deployed troops on the glacier to back their territorial claim, and the militarization gave rise to a series of military encounters between the two countries during the 1980s, escalating into a minor armed conflict in 1984 and 1987. Tensions during this period were further exacerbated by allegations of Pakistani support to the Sikh insurgency facing the Indian government. Furthermore, concerns arose at this time that a nuclear confrontation between the two states was imminent, as both states were reported to have developed nuclear weapon capacities by the mid-1980s. However, these tensions appeared to have abated when India's and Pakistan's Prime Ministers met in December 1988 to sign the first agreement regulating interstate relations in 16 years, committing themselves not to attack each other’s nuclear installations. Despite reports of sporadic fighting India and Pakistan also managed to agree on the outlines of a peace settlement for the contested territory in mid-1989.
The 1990s: nuclear arms race and the Kargil War
Interstate tension again intensified in 1990 as India accused Pakistan of orchestrating and fanning the territorial insurgencies in Kashmir and Punjab. Pakistan vehemently denied such allegations of secondary support, though clearly expressing their political support to Kashmiri "freedom fighters." The situation along the countries' joint border intensified, and long-standing border skirmishes and alleged re-enforcement of troops by the Indian army sparked fears of a third Indian-Pakistani war over Kashmir. In April 1990, the situation escalated further, and the UN and the USA engaged in an intense diplomatic activity to calm the situation. In June 1990, India announced it was moving its troops back from the border, and delegations of the two countries met in Islamabad to try to ease the tension. The issue of cross border activity and what India termed "Pakistan's undiminished support to the separatist rebellion in Kashmir" continued to infect interstate relations all through the decade, where periods of heightened tension were proceeded by political accommodation and negotiations.
In the late 1990s, the demonstrated arms race between the two nuclear powers gave a further twist to tense interstate relations. The conciliatory efforts regarding nuclear security had barely been seen through before Indo-Pakistani relations again deteriorated over the issue of Pakistani involvement in the Kashmir insurgency. The “Kargil War" was triggered by the large-scale movement of Kashmiri Mujaheddin militants from Pakistan to Kashmir in May 1999, which allegedly took place under the auspices of Pakistan. The conflict escalated to include the use of artillery, helicopters, and airstrikes and stood at the brink of a wider war between the countries. The fighting claimed over 1000 lives and forced 70 000 to flee from the area. The immediate risk of a protracted interstate war abated after Pakistani troops were withdrawn in July 1999 in response to the heavy losses and lack of international support. However, occasional clashes continued over the next few years.
Peace initiatives in the early 21st century
2003 saw a warming of relations between India and Pakistan, with several positive events occurring. First, a package of confidence-building measures was accepted as the two nations agreed to resume air and land connections. Moreover, the two countries agreed to discuss the Kashmir issue in 2004, raising hopes throughout the region that the countries would undertake substantive discussions. Late in the year, Pakistan decided to institute a unilateral ceasefire along the Line of Control, a move which was welcomed by India and led to a cessation of violence between the two nations from 26 November through the end of the year. It was the first formal truce between the two armies since the outbreak of militancy in Kashmir.
A "composite dialogue" between Pakistan and India was announced in early January 2004. In mid-February, the parties met in Islamabad to hold the formal talks and announced a "basic roadmap" to end their enmity. This included agreement on modalities and a timeframe for the negotiations. Top-level talks between India and Pakistan over the disputed region seemed to gain momentum in late June 2004 with the parties agreeing on various confidence-building measures and initiating a series of talks proceeding until late August. These talks covered serious points of conflict, such as the demilitarization of the Siachen glacier. However, the progress was slow, as the two sides were still far apart over the main bone of contention: control of Kashmir. The year 2004 ended without any substantial breakthrough in the talks, but the ceasefire between the parties continued to hold, and the informal peace process continued. High-level meetings and tentative confidence-building measures occurred throughout 2005, resulting in symbolic measures like the opening of bus service between Indian and Pakistani-administered Kashmir in April. An earthquake that struck the region in October 2005 also resulted in the opening of several crossing points along the Line of Control, allowing people to cross the border on foot for the first time in 60 years. But despite Delhi's declaration that the "peace process is now irreversible," negotiations between the parties continued to avoid the issues of Kashmir's future.
Although the continuing dialogue resulted in little substantive change, both parties kept reaffirming their commitment to dialogue and peaceful relations. Despite sporadic firing across the Line of Control in recent years, both parties expressed a commitment to maintaining the ceasefire. The dialogue was hindered, however, by domestic political upheaval in Pakistan and by the political fallout of the Mumbai attacks, which India claimed were perpetrated by Pakistani members of Lashkar-e-Taiba. Indian security officials also claimed that Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan was linked to a suicide car-bomb attack on the Indian embassy in the Afghan capital of Kabul.
Despite the expressed commitment to maintaining the ceasefire, the conflict steadily increased in intensity since 2013 and remained active for eighth consecutive years. Following particularly intense clashes across the Line of Control (LoC) in the second half of 2020, the parties agreed to a ceasefire on 25 February 2021. Although there were reports of ceasefire violations during the year, UCDP recorded no fatalities in this conflict after the ceasefire agreement was signed. The conflict did not reach the threshold of 25 battle-related deaths during the year, and hence was not recorded as active in 2021. The conflict remained inactive until it escalated again in 2025.
In late April 2025, a terrorist attack against Hindu tourists near Pahalgam in the Indian-administered part of Kashmir led India to launch Operation Sindoor against Pakistan, which it accused of supporting cross-border terrorism. Over four days in May, the parties carried out strikes along the Line of Control, before agreeing to a ceasefire on 10 May.
