SUMMARY

In 1991, Somalia suffered from a total state collapse and descended into a state of civil war. Numerous factions and warlords fought for control over Somalia, leading to a countrywide violence. In 2006, the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), an umbrella organization for Islamist groups, established control over Mogadishu. In early 2007, the UIC was defeated by Ethiopian forces and the Somali Transnational Federal Government (TFG). This led to the emergence of Al-Shabaab in 2008, seeking to overthrow the government of Somalia and establish a strict version of Sharia law in the country. Al-Shabaab is the most prominent insurgent group in Somalia.

Since 1989, Somalia has experienced inter-state, intrastate, non-state and one-sided categories of organized violence, as defined by the UCDP.

2025

In 2025, the level of violence in Somalia escalated compared to the previous year, with fatalities exceeding 3 800. While one-sided violence remained relatively low, both state-based and non-state conflicts increased significantly.

The state-based conflict landscape in Somalia was shaped by intensified fighting between the Government of Somalia and Al-Shabaab, as well as a more localized but persistent insurgency by Islamic State in Somalia. Compared to 2024, an increase in state-based violence was recorded in 2025, with the number of state-based fatalities reaching a little over 3000, compared to over 2100 fatalities in 2024. The conflict over government between Al-Shabaab and the Somali government remained the primary driver of violence. The conflict was characterized by fragmented and fluid territorial control, with the government, supported by clan militias and international partners, retaining territorial control over Mogadishu and most major towns, while al-Shabaab exercised territorial control across rural areas in Middle Shabelle, Hiran, and parts of Lower Shabelle and Galgadud. At the same time, the conflict involving IS increased significantly. IS continued to operate primarily in the mountainous areas of Bari region in Puntland, where it maintained a limited territorial foothold, despite periodic counterterrorism operations by security forces and international partners.

Non-state conflict between Puntland State of Somalia and IS increased significantly, with fatalities exceeding 700 in 2025. Puntland security forces carried out periodic ground offensives, complemented by targeted raids and efforts to disrupt IS financing and extortion networks.

IN DEPTH

Historical development: gaining independence

In the middle of the 19th century France, Italy, Great Britain and Ethiopia competed for prominence on the Horn of Africa and the territory inhabited by Somalis was divided by the above-mentioned nations. In the 1860s France occupied the current territory of Djibouti and called it French Somaliland. The British established a protectorate, British Somaliland, in northern Somalia in the 1880s. The Italians bought the territory of southern Somalia, Italian Somaliland, from the sultan of Zanzibar in 1889 and the Ethiopians seized the area called Ogaden. After the Second World War, Italian Somaliland came under a UN trusteeship, administered by Italy in preparation for self-rule. On 1 July 1960, the Italian and British Somaliland, having gained independence, formed the United Republic of Somalia.

Following independence, many ethnic Somalis in Ethiopia and Kenya wanted to join the newly formed Somali state. The Somali government supported the concept of self-determination for the people of the Somali-inhabited areas as well as the right to be united within a greater Somalia. This stance became particularly contentious with regards to the Ogaden region, leading to several outbreaks of inter-state conflict between Somalia and Ethiopia over the course of three decades (in 1960, 1964, 1973, 1983 and 1987).

Approaching state collapse: The Barre regime

Internally, the multi-party democratic form of governance set up at independence was abruptly ended in 1969 with a bloodless military coup. The Supreme Revolutionary Council, under the leadership of General Siad Barre, established a socialist political system under military rule. The Barre regime outlawed the clan system that deeply characterizes the Somali society and forged close ties to the Soviet Union. However, the Soviet Union ceased to support Somalia as it opposed the Somali invasion of Ethiopia during the inter-state conflict over Ogaden and instead, Somalia started to seek support from western countries such as the United States.

In the 1980s, the Barre regime became more and more dominated by the leader’s own Marehan clan (in contradiction to its ideology) and increasingly repressive towards other clans. The authoritarianism incited popular discontent and largely clan-based armed resistance started to sprout, marking the beginning of the intrastate conflict that still haunts Somalia today. For the remainder of the 1980s, these groups waged guerrilla warfare in different parts of the country with the aim of overthrowing the regime. Towards the end of the decade, the main rebel groups combined forces and managed to overthrow the Barre regime on 26 January 1991.

In the power vacuum after Barre’s fall, the various clan-based armed militias began to violently compete for government power and thus pushed the intrastate conflict to the degree of state collapse. As the Somali state lost central authority, the north-western region took the chance to self-declare the independent Republic of Somaliland in 1991.

Towards a new government

Following the fall of the Barre regime, Somalia was without a central government for several years. By 2000, an attempt at forging a central administration was made when clan elders elected a Transitional Nation Government (TNG) during a conference in Djibouti. Many opposition parties did however boycott the election and the TNG was soon met with violent resistance by the newly formed Somali Reconciliation and Restoration Council (SRRC). When the TNG’s mandate expired in 2003, it was succeeded by Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in 2004. As the violence in the country did not cease, the new government was forced to operate from Kenya during its first year. In August 2012 the transitional period for the internationally sanctioned TFG of Somalia ended and a few weeks later, the Federal Government of Somalia was inaugurated. Ever since, the Government of Somalia has remained challenged by rebel groups and struggled to gain control of Somalia. Main insurgent group Al-Shabaab was however unable to severely disrupt the 2017 elections, which saw Mohamed Abdullahi "Farmajo" Mohamed elected as the new President of Somalia.