This dyad belongs to the conflict Somalia: Government
Summary of conflict Somalia: Government
The armed conflict in Somalia dates back to the beginning of the 1980s, when armed opposition groups were formed to overthrow President Barre. In 1991, President Barre was ousted from power and a new government was formed by USC (United Somali Congress). A breakaway faction of USC refused to accept the new government, which led to resuming of the conflict. Even though both UN and US troops deployed in Somalia in order to stop the fighting 1992-1995, the fighting continued between different groups in the following years. Since 2008, jihadist group Al-Shabaab has emerged as the main insurgent actor in Somalia.
In 2025, the conflict over government between the Government of Somalia and Al-Shabaab intensified significantly, with fatalities over 2 900, compared to just over 2 100 in 2024. The escalation was driven primarily by Al-Shabaab’s renewed large-scale offensive operations beginning in early 2025, particularly across central regions such as Middle Shabelle and Hiran, where the group temporarily seized a number of strategic towns and increased pressure on government-controlled areas surrounding the capital, Mogadishu. In response, the government launched counteroffensives supported by Ma’awisley clan militias and African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) and the United States, including intensified airstrikes and military operations, which enabled the recapture of some areas.
Al-Shabaab threat 2008-2022
While there are several versions of when and by whom Al-Shabaab was actually formed, Al-Shabaab can be seen as a successor to the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC). The UIC was an umbrella organization formed by Shari'a (Islamic law) courts which took control of the capital Mogadishu in June 2006. Following war threats by UIC to Ethiopia, Ethiopia's ally Somali Transnational Federal Government (TFG) allowed Ethiopian military support to Somalia to strengthen the fight against UIC. In December 2006, the Ethiopian and Somali TFG forces defeated UIC, which led to UIC to dissolve itself.
Al-Shabaab, comprised of youth members of Islamic Courts, rose to prominence emerging from anger towards the government of Somalia and Ethiopia's invasion. Their aim was to overthrow the government, expel foreign troops, install a system of governance based on Shari'a law, and pursuit irredentist claim of establishing "Greater Somalia", a territory that would include Somaliland, Putland, Ethiopia's Ogaden region, Djibouti, and north-eastern Kenya.
Al-Shabaab became the primary insurgent group in Somalia as they quickly asserted themselves as the main opposition to the government forces as well as to Ethiopian troops deployed in Somalia. Initially, Al-Shabaab managed to conquer large swaths of territory and were well perceived by Somalis for bringing order and stability to the largely dysfunctional and highly fragmented society of the previous decades. However, Al-Shabaab practiced a strict form of Shari'a law, such as punishing theft by amputation and infidelity by stoning, which turned the population against the group.
Al-Shabaab mainly used conventional guerrilla tactics against the government forces and Ethiopian troops until 2008. However, since 2008, Al-Shabaab launched campaigns proving their ability to conduct deadly attacks which established them as the main opponent. Al-Shabaab's increasing ties with al-Qaida and receiving training in their camps led Al-Shabaab to carry suicide attacks against government and foreign forces. The largest attack which was perpetrated by the group occurred on 14 October 2017 when Al-Shabaab detonated a vehicle-borne suicide bomb in central Mogadishu which resulted in killing at least 512 people.
Starting from 2008, the conflict saw a geographical expansion, spreading many locations outside of insurgency hot-spot Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab increasingly staged hit-and-run attacks on small towns which were lacking significant security presence, oftentimes only to hold the towns briefly. The group brought most of south-central Somalia under their control by the end of the year. However, in the following years, operations carried out by Somali security forces and AMISOM (see following chapter) pushed Al-Shabaab out of many of their strongholds. In 2011, and African Union offensive pushed Al-Shabaab out of Mogadishu. Furthermore, by the end of 2017, Al-Shabaab lost the control of their territories and the Somali army pledged to continue its offensive against the group rooting them out of their previous safe havens. Even though Al-Shabaab does not control as many towns as before, they still operate camps and bases in the rural areas of Somalia, and continue to pose threat to security forces and civilian population, as well as disrupt the elections.
Regionalization of the conflict
On 19 January 2007, the African Union Peace and Security Council, together with UN, authorized a peacekeeping mission to Somalia under the name of African Union in Somalia (AMISOM). The mission's task was to protect the government and people of Somalia. The first countries to provide troops for the mission were Uganda and Burundi, which helped to push Al-Shabaab from Mogadishu. In the following years, Djibouti, Sierra Leone, Kenya, and Ethiopia joined the mission by sending troops.
In 2012, the AU mandate changed into peace enforcement, which meant that the mission's new task was to fight Al-Shabaab directly to reduce the threat posed by them. Over time the presence of foreign troops in Somalia increased. Furthermore, in 2016 the government of United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) stepped up the intensity of their drone and air strikes against Al-Shabaab. Most notably a drone strike in March 2016 was the single most deadly attack carried out by the US. Over 100 Al-Shabaab fighters were reportedly killed in the attack. This further established the conflict dynamics in Somalia as asymmetrical warfare fought with episodes of high-profile attacks carried out by Al-Shabaab.
Starting from 2020, United States dramatically decreased its use of drone and air strikes against Al-Shabaab, following then-President Donal Trump's announcement of the withdrawal of the majority of the estimated 700 US military troops in Somalia from the country in December 2020. Furthermore, AMISOM was set to expire on 31 December 2021, which was later extended until 31 March 2022.
The presence of foreign troops in Somalia increased the number of areas under government control, however, it did not improve the security of civilians. Rather, Al-Shabaab increased its hit-and-run attacks against the politicians and foreign officials in Mogadishu and attacks on hotels and restaurants frequented by government officials. In addition to attacks in Somalia, Al-Shabaab also targeted Kenya, most notably the attacks on the Westgate shopping mall in Nairobi in 2013 and on the Garissa University in Garissa town in 2015 which killed at least 61 and 152 people, respectively. These attacks strengthened Kenya's determination to eradicate Al-Shabaab, which led to a significant increase in the attacks conducted by the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF), mainly along the Kenya - Somali border.
Background to the conflict and the emergence of armed opposition groups
Following a coup in 1969, Major General Siad Barre was installed as president of the newly formed governing body, SRC (Supreme Revolutionary Council). SRC banned political parties, abolished the National Assembly and suspended the Constitution. After Somalia was defeated in a war with Ethiopia in 1977–1978 (often referred to as the Ogaden war, Ogaden being the name of the disputed Ethiopian territory), the criticism of Barre’s regime grew. An attempted coup tried to remove President Barre from power on 9 April 1978, but the coup failed within a few hours.
At a conference 19 September–5 October 1981 three parties, SSF (the Somali Salvation Front), SWP (Somali Workers Party) and DFLS (the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Somalia) joined together to form SSDF (Somali Salvation Democratic Front). The new unified party promised to intensify the military and political struggles against President Siad Barre. Some incidents of violence were reported in 1981, but it was not until the following year, in 1982, that the conflict reached the threshold of 25 battle-related deaths. In July 1982, the group claimed to have captured the Somali border towns of Balamabal and Galdogob (situated close to the Somali–Ethiopian border). The Somali government claimed that this was done by Ethiopian troops, which Ethiopia firmly denied. SSDF also rejected these claims and stated that it was fully responsible for the seizure of the two towns. Neutral observers argued that Ethiopian troops in fact had been involved in the attacks, together with the rebels. Ethiopia is not coded as a warring party in the conflict since the government denied any involvement and thus did not express any incompatibility towards the Somali government.
In April 1981, SNM (Somali National Movement) was formed. The group’s main stated goals were to overthrow President Barre and establish a representative democracy. The main difference between SNM and SSDF consisted in SSDF being clearly Marxist while SNM was non-Marxist (but neither clearly pro-western). Furthermore, SNM mainly drew support from the Issaq clan while SSDF mainly relied on the Majeerteen clan. Both clans were concentrated in the northern part of Somalia. Although SNM conducted some attacks in 1982, the dyad did not reach the threshold of 25 battle-related deaths until 1983.
SSDF and SNM met on several occasions in 1982 and 1983 in order to establish a unified opposition front. Despite a few joint military operations and joint broadcasts of the radio station Radio Halgan ('struggle'), the two groups did not manage to agree on the political program.
Struggling with internal divisions and fighting, SSDF only conducted a few military attacks in 1984. At the end of 1985, the group had almost completely fallen apart following the arrest of the leader Col Abdullahi Yusuf by Ethiopian authorities. None of the two opposition groups were coded as active during 1985 due to the lack of references to clashes and battle-related deaths.
In 1986 and 1987, SNM continued its low-scale fighting, mainly in the northern part of the country. In 1988, SNM launched several attacks in the northwestern region and the conflict escalated into a full-scale war.
In 1989, two new opposition groups were formed; SPM (Somali Patriotic Movement) and USC (United Somali Congress). SPM emerged in 1989 after a group of Ogaden officers deserted the army and took up arms against Siad Barre, to overthrow the regime and establish a democratic form of government. There is little information available on the formation of USC, other than that they launched their insurgency in central Somalia in 1989, although the group was not coded as active until in 1990.
The fall of President Barre’s regime in 1991
In January 1991, Siad Barre was overthrown by USC (United Somali Congress), which consequently seized power and proclaimed the formation of a new government under Ali Mahdi. The new administration did not control the entire Somali territory, and it was not formally recognized by several of the other opposition groups. A breakaway faction of USC led by Mohammad Farrah Aideed refused to accept the new government, and these two groups, controlling different areas of Mogadishu and the country, continued the fighting over government power. Several other groups were also involved in the political and armed struggle, but Aideed's faction was the main opposition to the new government.
On 16 May 1991, one of the groups that had fought against Siad Barre, SNM (Somali National Movement), proclaimed the independent Republic of Somaliland. This territory corresponded to the former British colony located in the northern part of the country. Although Somaliland has not been internationally recognized, it has since then been a de facto independent state. The leadership of the Republic of Somaliland has been democratically elected and does not consider the region as part of Somalia.
The deployment of UN and US troops in Somalia 1992–1995
Following a severe famine, the UN decided in 1992 to establish UNOSOM I (United Nations Operation in Somalia), deploying 3500 troops that arrived in September. Aideed's faction, by mid-1992 part of a broader alliance under the name of USC/SNA (United Somali Congress/Somali National Alliance), strongly opposed the UN presence. In December, the USA initiated Operation Restore Hope, with the mission to provide security for UN's humanitarian relief work in Somalia. Subsequently, UNITAF (Unified Task Force) was established, and its approximately 28 000 US troops and some 17 000 troops from over 20 other countries started arriving in Mogadishu on 9 December.
In early 1993, negotiations were held, and in March Aideed and Mahdi signed a peace agreement wherein the parties agreed to set up a Transitional National Council that eventually would lead to democratic governance. UNITAF was transformed into a UN operation (UNOSOM II) with 28 000 troops. Despite having agreed to cooperate with UNOSOM II and hand over weapons, Aideed stalled on the implementation of the agreement. In June, a series of attacks against UNOSOM II led to the death of at least 25 UN soldiers. US forces (not under UN command) were then deployed in Mogadishu. On 3 October 1993 these forces launched an operation in south Mogadishu aimed at capturing a number of Aideed’s key aides, who were suspected of complicity in the attacks on UN personnel. During the operation hundreds of Somalis and 18 US soldiers were killed. The scenes of the bodies of US soldiers being dragged around the city were broadcast in international media, and the US announced the withdrawal of its forces from Somalia by 31 March 1994.
On 9 October 1993 USC/SNA declared a unilateral cessation of hostilities against UNOSOM II forces. On 24 March 1994 Aideed and Mahdi signed a UN-brokered peace agreement, but the agreement did not result in an ending the conflict. The remaining UN forces kept a low profile until they were removed in 1995.
Continued fighting despite negotiations and ceasefires 1996–2003
Mohammad Farrah Aideed, the leader of USC/SNA (United Somali Congress/Somali National Alliance), died in 1996 and was replaced by his son Hussein Aideed. This created an opportunity for a peace conference, and in October 1996, 22 Somali organizations, including USC/SNA, met in Nairobi. No agreement was signed, but a resolution was agreed upon, in which Mahdi and Aideed committed to an immediate cessation of hostilities. The ceasefire lasted until December when new fighting broke out in Mogadishu. In the time period between 1997 and 2000 it was impossible to identify a “government side” in Somalia, which is why UCDP does not include the conflict as active in these years. Fighting continued between militias, often organized along clan-specific relations.
Meetings continued as part of the process initiated by the Nairobi resolution from October 1996. The negotiations led to a peace agreement on 22 December 1997 signed by 22 faction leaders (including both Mahdi and Aideed). Even though the agreement was never implemented, Mahdi and Aideed started cooperating and formed a joint administration in the Banadir region. In 2000, a Transitional National Government (TNG) was elected by clan elders in a conference in Djibouti, boycotted by many opposition parties.
When TNG had been established as the government, the opposition formed an umbrella organization in March 2001, and the conflict resumed. All Somali armed groups became allied with either TNG or the newly formed SRRC (Somali Reconciliation and Restoration Council). Some negotiations between the two parties were held in December 2001 but without any substantial outcome. On 15 October 2002, the parties met in Eldoret, Kenya, under the auspices of the sub-regional body of IGAD (Inter-Governmental Authority on Development). IGAD was comprised of the member states of Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan and Uganda. The conference aimed at bringing all Somalis together for reconciliation and the creation of a government that would be inclusive, representative, and acceptable to all parties. On 27 October, a ceasefire agreement was signed between TNG and the opposition groups.
The Peace Conference continued throughout 2003, and the parties that had signed the Eldoret Cessation of Hostilities Agreement in 2002 eventually signed an Interim Charter in July 2003 and a Transitional Constitution in September 2003. While negotiations continued, TNG’s official mandate ended on 30 August 2003 and Somalia entered a new period without an official government.
The formation of a new government in 2004
After a revision of the Interim Chapter in early 2004, the first members of the new transitional parliament, selected in accordance to clan affiliation, were sworn in on 22 August 2004. According to the basic principles agreed to, Somalia would become a federation during the five-year transition period. The parliament elected Abdullahi Yusuf as the transitional president on 10 October, and he appointed a new transitional government in December 2004.
The new government only returned to Somalia in June 2005 but opted, citing security concerns, to establish its base in the city of Jowhar. This led to a war of words that temporarily split the government between a Jowhar and a Mogadishu faction. In early 2006, the two government factions met to reconcile their differences but when the parliament reconvened, it was decided that it should be based in the city of Baidoa until Mogadishu had become safer.
The former Mogadishu-based faction of the government did not protest as they and their militias at the same time were forced out of Mogadishu by an expanding network of local Islamic courts. After having taken control of Mogadishu, the courts' militia changed its name to SICS (Supreme Islamic Council of Somalia), and declared its opposition to the Ethiopian aid given to the Baidoa government. The constellation was later on reconstituted as ARS/UIC (Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia/Union of Islamic Courts), and is therefore referred to as such in UCDP data.
In July–November, almost all of the territory of southern Somalia became controlled by SICS as the group incorporated local militias and founded new courts. At the same time, the Ethiopian military advisers to the government were supplemented by forces from the Ethiopian army and smaller clashes started between the two groups. In December 2006, the government army and its Ethiopian ally launched a large-scale offensive that in a few weeks pushed SICS back towards Mogadishu.
On 27 December, SICS’s leaders announced that the group was abandoning Mogadishu and left the political leadership to sub-clan leaders. The government entered the capital two days later, and continued to pursue militant SICS members in southern Somalia into the New Year.
The violence persisted after the dissolution of the administrative wing of SICS in late December 2006. However, remnants of SICS withdrew to the southern reaches of Ras Kamboni, Kismayo and Afmadow in the Lower Juba region, where they fought against the Transitional Federal Government (TFG)/Ethiopian coalition.
The escalation of violence in 2007
On 8–9 January 2007 the US carried out air strikes in southern Somalia in an attempt to target al-Qaida operatives fighting alongside SICS. In late January SICS’s security chief, Sheik Muktar Abu Mansur urged the Somalis to “stand by the Mujahidins [milita] of the Islamic courts”, indicating that the military components of SICS were still active.
During the spring, SICS militias alongside Hawiye clan militias waged an "urban guerrilla-style" insurgency, primarily in Mogadishu. There were near daily gun, grenade and mortar attacks on government targets and Ethiopian troops, but very often civilians got caught in the crossfire or were the victims of the frequent and imprecise mortar shelling. In September 2007, a new anti-Ethiopian and anti-TFG umbrella group was officially launched in Asmara, Eritrea, called ARS (Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia). The political leadership of SICS was subsequently subsumed under the formation of ARS while SICS more militant leaders pledged support to the new formation in the fall of 2007. Violent acts continued to take place for the remainder of the year. Although it was difficult to discern precisely the level of contact between the Asmara-based ARS and insurgents on the ground, there were clearly still elements in the leadership of the new umbrella formation who continued to promote and coordinate the violent opposition. However, the insurgency appeared to be growing increasingly fragmented.
In 2008, the security situation in Somalia deteriorated further. The insurgency grew both in scope and in complexity, with actors previously grouped under ARS (Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia) umbrella increasingly acting out of its sub-groupings. UN-hosted talks in mid-2008 brought promise, but their impact was limited by hard-line opposition elements refusing to participate. The presence of Ethiopian troops in support of the fledgling TFG (Transitional Federal Government) remained the most divisive issue, and eventually effectuated a split in the opposition, between ARS/Djibouti who agreed to negotiations and the more hard-line ARS/Asmara who refused to negotiate as long as Ethiopian forces of “occupation” remained on Somali soil.
In combination with the expansion of the insurgency in both intensity and scope – in addition to hot spot Mogadishu, 2008 saw fighting spread to many central and southern Somalia locations – the continued use of indiscriminate tactics had disastrous effects on the civilian population. The worsening security situation, coupled with severe drought and a significant number of IDPs, resulted in immense humanitarian need. At the end of the year, political infighting resulting in the resignation of President Abdullahi Yusuf, in combination with Ethiopia announcing its intention to withdraw troops deployed to Somalia, left the TFG weak and seemingly unable to resist the insurgent advance.
