SUMMARY
Mexico gained independence from Spanish colonial rule in 1821 and briefly existed as an empire until it became a federal republic in 1824. The majority of the 20th century saw the country being controlled by the PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party), which dominated elections (at times through oppression and manipulation) for 70 years before being defeated in the 2000 elections by the PAN (National Action Party). By then Mexico had made substantial progress in the democratic and economic spheres.
Authoritarian politics and the economic marginalization of some of Mexico’s indigenous populations, primarily in the southern parts of the country, spawned widespread discontent among the poor and landless throughout the second half of the 20th century. This discontent sometimes took violent expression, such as in the intrastate armed conflict that took place in Chiapas state between the Government of Mexico and the EZLN in 1994 and between the Government of Mexico and the EPR in 1996. The conflict with the EZLN ended with a minimal accord on increased rights for the indigenous population; an accord that was not implemented to the satisfaction of the rebels. The conflict with the EPR was terminated by low activity. For more information on these, see Mexico: Government conflict. In the context of this state-based violence, paramilitary groups supporting the Mexican government also made use of one-sided violence, such as Paz y Justicia, who targeted mainly Zapatista sympathizers in Chiapas state (see Paz y Justicia - Civilians, for more information).
Mexico also experienced a notable rise in non-state violence after the PRI hegemony over the Government of Mexico ended. This emerged primarily in the form of powerful criminal cartels, such as the Sinaloa Cartel and Los Zetas, fighting each other for dominance over drug trafficking routes to the United States of America. Since 2006, the Mexican government aggressively targeted Mexican drug cartels using both civilian and military forces. This resulted in substantial amounts of violence but it was not possible to include this due to a lack of incompatibility, which meant that the violence did not fulfill the necessary UCDP requirements to be included as state-based violence.
Since 1946 Mexico has experienced the intrastate, non-state, and one-sided categories of UCDP organized violence.
2025
While organized crime violence in Mexico remained at high levels, 2025 saw a notable decline, likely driven by a combination of factors. In some areas, violence intensified. Sinaloa state in particular, experienced intense clashes between factions of the Sinaloa Cartel, with the Jalisco Cartel New Generation (CJNG) aligning with the Los Chapitos faction, and acting as a force multiplier. Meanwhile, The escalation in Sinaloa likely absorbed resources and attention from the warring Sinaloa Cartel factions, contributing to decreased violence in other regions. At the same time, fatalities remained high in states such as Baja California, Guanajuato, and Michoacán. Elsewhere, cartel consolidation reduced violence. In Zacatecas, previously a central battleground between the Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG, violence declined as CJNG grew more dominant.
The overall decline may also reflect more targeted security efforts, including intelligence-led operations and improved federal-state coordination, although their impact remains difficult to isolate. At the same time, the overall decrease masks significant geographic variation, with violence increasingly concentrated in a limited number of states even as national figures fall.
Yet, while fatality figures point downward, they may not capture the full extent of violence. Rising levels of disappearances suggest a possible displacement or undercounting of lethal violence. In Sinaloa state, for example, reported disappearances were comparable to recorded homicides.
