SUMMARY
Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, is a country with a diverse population made up of numerous ethnic groups. Since its independence from the United Kingdom in 1948, Myanmar has experienced continuous conflict between the central government and various ethnic armed groups seeking self-determination and rights for their respective communities.
Myanmar military, also known as Tatmadaw, has been a dominant force in Myanmar’s politics and society since the country’s independence. The military has played a major role in the country’s politics and has ruled the country through military regimes by conducting coups or by electing former generals as presidents. Most recently, the coup on 1 February 2021 has deepened the divide and fuelled the ongoing conflict and instability in the country, with long-standing ethnic armed groups joining forces with the pro-democracy NUG (National Unity Government) in opposing the military regime.
Since 1946, Myanmar (Burma) has experienced the inter-state, intrastate, non-state and one-sided categories of organized violence, as defined by the UCDP.
2025
In 2025, the level of violence in Myanmar decreased compared to the previous year, with recoded fatalities falling to just over 2 300. Both state-based conflict and one-sided violence decreased, while non-state conflict remained at a low level, with no dyad reaching the threshold of 25 battle-related deaths. The decrease in fatalities may, in part, be attributed to limited media coverage from Myanmar.
State-based violence nevertheless remained at high levels, as the country continued to be a battleground involving six armed groups and five active conflicts. The conflict over government between the Government of Myanmar and National Unity Government (NUG) remained the primary driver of the violence. Fighting between the two sides was particularly intense in Sagaing and Magway regions. Government forces maintained a violent campaign of airstrikes, artillery shelling, and raids, while the local People Defense Forces (PDF), the armed wing of NUG, continued ambushes, landmine attacks, and sabotage operations against military convoys and outposts. The conflict over government between the Government of Myanmar and Palaung State Liberation Front (PSLF) also remained active in 2025, with fighting concentrated in Kyaukme and Taunggyi districts, and Pa Laung Self-Administrative Zone in Shan state, as well as Pyinoolwin district in Mandalay region. In Rakhine state, the Arakan conflict between the Government of Myanmar and Arakan Army, although experienced decline in fatalities, remained intense as the military airstrikes and shelling targeted civilian-populated areas, particularly in Kyaukpyu, Mrauk-U and Sittwe districts. The Karen conflict between the government and Karen National Union (KNU) in Kayin and Mon states, and Bago region, and the Kachin conflict between the government and Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) in Kachin state witnessed slight decrease in violence levels compared to 2024. Meanwhile, the Karenni conflict between the government and Karenni National Progressive Party in Kayah state remained active throughout the year, particularly in Bawlakhe and Loikaw districts of Kayah state. The Kokang conflict saw a major development in January 2025, when the MNDAA and the Government of Myanmar signed a ceasefire agreement during China-brokered negotiations. Following the ceasefire, large-scale fighting ceased for the remainder of the year.
One-sided violence against civilians also declined in intensity in 2025. Mandalay, Magway, and Sagaing regions continued to account for the majority of civilian targeting. The Government of Myanmar continued to carry out atrocities in areas suspected of harboring or supporting resistance. Documented abuses included mass killings, burning civilians alive, abductions for use as human shields, and extrajudicial executions.
Constant violence
Myanmar has experienced constant internal conflict since its independence. Between 1989 and 2022, there have been significant periods of violence and instability that have had an impact on Myanmar’s political, social, and economic development, hindering the country’s transition to democracy. The situation in Myanmar remains volatile, with ongoing conflicts and human rights abuses.
The early 1990s: the Karen conflict
KNU (Karen National Union) has been engaged in a long-standing conflict with the central government since its establishment in 1947. They have been fighting for self-determination, greater autonomy, and the protection of Karen rights and culture. The Karen ethnic group is one of the largest in Myanmar.
The clashes between the government and KNU intensified in the early 1990s. Most notably, in 1992, the KNLA, the armed wing of KNU, launched a major offensive called the “1992 Summer Offensive” against the military positions in Karen state, consists of Kayin state and southeastern Myanmar, including the towns of Papun, Pa-a, and Myawaddy. However, the Myanmar military launched a counter-offensive, and the KNU was eventually forced to retreat from many of the areas it had captured. The offensive was a turning point in the Karen conflict. It demonstrated the KNU’s ability to mount large-scale operation and highlighted the group’s determination to fight for its cause. However, it also showed the Tatmadaw’s superior resources and firepower, underscoring the challenges that the KNU faced in its struggle against the military.
In 1994, the KNU entered into peace talks with the government, resulting in a ceasefire agreement in 1995. However, the ceasefire was short-lived, and fighting resumed in 1997. By the end of the year 1990s, the Tatmadaw had managed to push the KNU back and retake much of the territory it had lost.
After the 1990s, the violence de-escalated and remained at around the same levels until 2021.
Rohingya crisis and the Arakan conflict
The Rohingya are a Muslim ethnic group that has been living in the Rakhine state of Myanmar for generations. The roots of the conflict go back to the British colonial period when Myanmar was known as Burma. The British colonizers brought many migrant workers from India and Bangladesh to work In Burma, and the Rohingya were among them. After Burma gained independence in 1948, the Rohingya were not recognized as citizens, and many of them were stripped of their land and property. The conflict has escalated over the years, with various military campaigns being launched against the Rohingya. In response to discrimination and persecution by the government and militant Buddhists, ARSA (Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army) was established to fight for the self-determination and self-defense of all the people in Rakhine, previously known as Arakan, including the promotion and protection of Rohingya rights and their right to full citizenship status.
State-based and one-sided violence increased dramatically in Rakhine state, with the most recent military crackdown occurring on 25 August 2017, following ARSA attacks on approximately 30 police outposts in northern Rakhine state, resulting in the death of at least a dozen Myanmar security forces. The government reported that over 370 ARSA militants were killed within two weeks following the attack, but the identities of many of those killed remain unknown. The military claimed it was fighting terrorists and insurgents, but witnesses who fed northern Rakhine state reported brutal campaigns on campaigns on civilians by government troops and militant Buddhists, including burning villages, rape of women, and killing of thousands of Rohingya civilians, resulting in the displacement of Rohingyas from the area. By the end of the year, approximately 650 000 Rohingyas had fled to Bangladesh. Due to limited, it is challenging to establish numbers of battle-related and one-sided deaths, caused by intense violence following the August 2017 attacks. Consequently, the UCDP is likely to underreport the number of fatalities during this period.
Following the fatal events related to the Rohingya crisis, the intensity of the Arakan conflict significantly increased as ARSA reduced its military activity in 2018. However, in the same year, the Arakan Army, which fights for self-determination for the people of Arakan, became active and reignited the arakan conflict in northern Rakhine state, as well as in the southwest Chin state, until the end of October 2020. In November 2020, the Arakan Army and government under then-Prime Minister Aung Suu Kyi, had an informal ceasefire agreement as both parties started to discuss the potential of peace process negotiations. However, the ceasefire was short-lived as the Arakan Army joined the fighting against the military regime in 2022.
The aftermath of the 2021 coup
On 1 February 2021, the Myanmar military, led by General Min Aung Hlaing, ousted the democratically elected National League for Democracy (NLD), arrested State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, and seized power. The military claimed that the NLD’s victory in the 2020 General elections was fraudulent and called for new elections.
The aftermath of the coup has been characterized by widespread protests, strikes, and civil disobedience movements throughout the country. The people of Myanmar have taken to the streets in large numbers, demanding the restoration of democracy and the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners detained by the military junta. The protests have been met with violent repression, with the military using live ammunition, tear gas, and other brutal tactics to disperse the crowds. This has prompted people to bear arms in self-defense, leading to the formation of local defense groups in villages and towns. Additionally, some individuals have sought training and weapons from long-standing ethnic armed groups, KIO, KNU, and KNPP to resist the Myanmar military. Consequently, the groups have increased their activities in response to the military junta’s crackdown on civilians, expressed support for the pro-democracy movement, and called for a united front against the military regime.
Following the establishment of the pro-democracy NUG (National Unity Government) and its armed wing, the People Defense forces (PDF), the conflict over government has become more organized, as the previously formed self-defense groups have pledged allegiance to the NUG and rebranded themselves as the local chapters of the PDF. The conflict took a significant turn when the long-standing ethnic armed groups allied with the NUG. The KIO in Kachin and northern Shan states, KNU in Kayin state and neighbouring Pekon township in Shan state, along with the CNF (Chin National Front) in Chin state, united their forces with the local chapters of the PDF in their territories and launched attacks against the security forces. The previously calm and peaceful Sagaing region became the NUG’s stronghold.
The conflict between the government and the NUG, as well as between the government and the aforementioned ethnic armed groups, escalated dramatically after 7 September when the NUG officially declared war against the military regime.
