This dyad belongs to the conflict Myanmar (Burma): Arakan
Summary of conflict Myanmar (Burma): Arakan
At the time of Burmese independence 1948, there were already two rebellions ongoing in Arakan (now Rakhine) state. In the southern part, Buddhist nationalist groups wanted independence, and in the northern part, Muslim Rohingyas rejected inclusion in Burma. Intense fighting occurred in the early 1950s; thereafter, the situation was characterized by several small groups active during different time periods. As of 1989, state-based violence sparked in the early 1990s and then again in 2016.
The conflict between the Government of Myanmar and the United League of Arakan (ULA), along with its armed wing, the Arakan Army, de-escalated in 2025 as the intensity of fighting declines across Rakhine state. Compared to previous years, fewer large-scale ground clashes were recorded, partly reflecting the Arakan Army’s consolidation of territorial control in several parts of the state and a relative reduction in direct confrontations between the two sides. Despite the decline in battlefield violence, the military regime continued to carry out airstrikes and shelling against civilian-populated areas, particularly in towns and villages under Arakan Army control or perceived support the group. These attacks resulted in significant civilian casualties and widespread destruction of homes and infrastructure. One of the deadliest incidents occurred in early January, when a military airstrike on Kyauk Ni Maw village in Ramree township killed more than 40 civilians.
Background to the conflict
The Arakan region is located along the shores of the Bay of Bengal which today form the southwest part of Myanmar bordering Bangladesh. Historically, the region was ruled as an independent Muslim kingdom with strong links to the more powerful Sultans of Bengal. In 1785, the territory was conquered by Burma, but after the first Anglo-Burmese War 1824–1826 it was annexed into British India. The Muslim population in Arakan refer to themselves as Rohingyas, and dominates especially the northern part of Arakan
In colonial times there was an increase in migration of Indians into Burma, and the newcomers became particularly prominent in the business communities. This contributed to the ethnic Burman nationalist orientation of anti-colonialist organizations and communal tension culminated with widespread violent anti-Muslim riots in cities throughout the country in 1938.
The Burman independence movement was not influential in Arakan, but it cooperated with the Arakan National Congress (ANC) which propagated for a separate Arakanese independence. Formed in 1939, this organization incorporated a broad selection of different interests but was soon dominated by politically active Buddhist monks such as U Pinnyathiha and U Seinda. During the Second World War, U Seinda created a military wing, the Arakan Defense Force, which fought alongside the advancing Japanese against the British forces. After the withdrawal, the British recruited Muslim irregular forces to launch guerrilla attacks on the Japanese and help prepare for a counteroffensive. It was claimed by Rohingya leaders that the British declared that Arakan after the war would be declared a “Muslim National Area.”
When it became clear that the Japanese would not hand over power to the Burman and Arakanese nationalists, they unified into the Anti-Fascist People’s Freedom League (AFPFL) and supported the British reconquest of the territory in 1945. Following the resumption of British rule, both Muslim Rohingyas and Buddhist-Arakanese expected independence as a reward for their Second War efforts.
Competing claims for independence
When Muslim refugees returned to Arakan after the Second World War, they found that many Arakanese Buddhists had been granted the properties during the Japanese occupation. This increased communal tension while both Buddhists and Rohingyas became increasingly militant in their demands for independence.
In southern Arakan, the Buddhist monk U Seinda left AFPFL in November 1945 and organized the Arakan People’s Liberation Party (APLP) which in 1947 started cooperating closely with the outlawed Communist Party of Burma – Red Flag. In November 1947, the APLP rebellion started and fighting was already ongoing at the time of Burmese impendence on 4 January 1948.
Muslim leaders did not immediately specify independence as their main goal. A delegation was sent in 1946 to leaders of the Indian Muslim League to request that northern Arakan would be incorporated into East Pakistan, but this plan was rejected. As communal violence between Buddhists and Muslims continued, veterans from the Second World War organized themselves into self-defense forces. Jafar Kawwal formed the Muslim Liberation Organization in 1946, a year later renamed as the Mujahid Party, which attracted many members from these militias. Following an exchange of fire with the police at a Mujahid meeting at Taung Bazaar in April 1948, the Mujahid rebellion quickly spread across northern Arakan.
The first phase of conflict
After fighting had started, the APLP and Mujahids came to an agreement to first jointly expulse the Burmese forces and then split Arakan into two separate independence states. By August 1948, the government controlled almost no territory in Arakan as APLP, the Mujahids and the communist groups of CPB, CPB-RF and PVO all had captured parts of the region.
Despite the early successes of the Arakan rebels, they were not able to consolidate their rule over the region. In part because of continued intercommunal violence and internecine struggles but also because of repeated government counteroffensives. Following the arrest by the Mujahid military leader Cassim in East Pakistan 1954, the government is able to recapture most rebel-held areas in northern Arakan. The few remaining Mujahid forces continued to launch occasional attacks on government forces but became increasingly focused on controlling the lucrative rice smuggling. The last Mujahids surrendered to the government in 1961.
As communal violence continued, APLP fighters soon became critical of the agreement with the Mujahid Party. As government forces sent to the region also primarily targeted Muslims and even openly cooperated with Buddhist militias, APLP was decimated by defections. U Seinda and the last troops took advantage of a government amnesty in January 1958.
Small insurgent groups
Different groups and names, with slightly different aims and ideology, have ever since been active in Arakan. At different times organized groups such as the Arakan National Liberation Party (ANLP), Communist Party of Arakan (CPA), Rohingya Patriotic Front (RPF) – a reorganization of the Mujahid Party, Arakan Liberation Party (ALP), Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO) and the Arakan Rohingya Islamic Front (ARIF) have pursued the struggle for independence. In general, these movements have been organized in several small groups that rarely had been capable of inflicting 25 battle-related deaths in a year. Much of the conflict activity in the region has also been non-organized, both in the form of communal conflict between Buddhists and the Muslim minority, and through one-sided violence against civilians by the government forces.
Attempts to unify the groups have been made; most notably when the ALP, AIO, and ANLP joined forces with the Communist Party of Arakan and the Tribal National Party in 1988 to form NUFA (National United Front of Arakan.) The group mainly seemed to act in the political and when it changed its name in 1994 to NUPA (National United Party of Arakan), with the creation of an armed wing, the Arakan Army, the ALP left the alliance.
Outbreak of fighting in the 1990s
When the students democracy movement led demonstrations against the government in 1988, it was soon followed by similar public displays of discontent in Arakan. Reports suggested that the military broke up the demonstrations with the use of violent force, and the opposition in Arakan became increasingly intent on an armed resistance. In 1990, Arakan state was renamed Rakhine state, and there was an increasing military build-up in the region to suppress the opposition. This led to masses of refugees crossing the border into Bangladesh, which garnered some attention from the international community. Bangladeshi intelligence sources claimed that 200 000 Muslims in Arakan had been driven from their homes in the first six months of 1991. Several organized groups started attacking government forces in late 1991, with ARIF (Arakan Rohingya Islamic Front) and RSO (Rohingya Solidarity Organisation) being the two most active.
In 1992, the government responded with a large-scale offensive that increased the refugee flows; Myanmar authorities defended themselves by claiming that the Muslims had been "illegal immigrants from Bangladesh" in the first place. In their attempts to regain control of the situation, the Myanmar military attacked civilians and Muslim symbols such as mosques. The government also imposed tighter restrictions on reporting from the area; as a result, there is little independent information available about how the conflict developed.
After the involvement of the UNHCR and some Islamic countries (most notably Iran), plans for the repatriation of the alleged 270 000 refugees in Bangladesh began in 1992. This led to some refugees escaping from the camps or arming themselves to avoid being transported back into Myanmar.
As mentioned above, reporting from Rakhine/Arakan became sparse, but it is likely the conflict continued with a lower intensity; it also possibly involved less organized actors throughout the 1990s. Between 1996 and 1999, some 50 000 to 100 000 Rohingyas again fled alleged atrocities in the province. Following the government reorganization in October 2004, an increased military presence in the region led to a new wave of refugees into Bangladesh.
Most of the remaining insurgent organizations in the area had taken refuge across the border in India and Bangladesh. After the end of reported conflict activity in 1994, occasional stated-based clashes took place in the area throughout the 1990s and the 2000s, but these clashes did not reach 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year.
Outbreak of fighting in the 2010s
After only seeing sporadic events throughout the 2000s, the number of incidences and deaths in the state-based Arakan conflict increased again in 2016 due to violent conflict between the Government of Myanmar (Burma) and the newly formed rebel group ARSA (Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army). The ARSA claim to represent the Muslim ethnic minority group Rohingya, who for decades has suffered discrimination and persecution by the government and militant Buddhists. Some Rohingyas have also been involved in communal clashes between Muslims and Buddhists in Myanmar, clashes which have further strained intercommunal relations. Against this backdrop, the ARSA was established and has stated it fights for the self-determination and self-defense of all the people in Arakan (Rakhine). This included, for example, the promotion and protection of rights of the Rohingya, and ensure their rights to full citizenship status.
On 9 October 2016, the ARSA organized attacks on multiple border guard posts in Maungdaw and Rathedaung township, located in northern Rakhine state near the Bangladesh border. At least nine police were killed in the attacks and according to the government, the attackers looted firearms and ammunition. The attacks were followed by additional fatal attacks and clashes which led to an increase in state-based violence.
Although the government denies human rights violations, one-sided violence by the Government of Myanmar (Burma) did take place following the attacks in October 2016, and at least 21 000 Rohingya Muslims fled to Bangladesh before the end of 2016.
The reported violence decreased by late 2016, but it is difficult to establish the numbers of battle-related and one-sided deaths during this violent episode as reporting is sparse.
The Rohingya Crisis 2017
State-based, as well as one-sided, violence increased dramatically in Rakhine following the ARSA’s attacks on some 30 police posts in northern Rakhine state, 25 August 2017. The attacks killed at least a dozen members of the Myanmar security forces and sparked a violent response by the government which led to a rapid escalation of violence. The government reported it killed over 370 terrorists within the first two weeks following the attack, but the identity of many of those killed remain unknown. The government stated it was fighting terrorists and insurgents but witnesses who have fled northern Rakhine state say government troops and militant Buddhists conducted a brutal campaign to drive out Rohingyas from the area. At the start of 2017, the Rohingya numbered around one million in Myanmar, at the end of the year, some 650 000 Rohingyas had fled to Bangladesh and large scale one-sided violence was used by the government. One-sided violence was also carried out by the ARSA.
Due to sparse reporting, it is very difficult to establish the numbers of battle-related and one-sided deaths caused by the intense violence following the August 2017 attacks. For these reasons, the UCDP is likely to underreport the number of fatalities during this period.
Following the fatal events relating to the Rohingya Crisis in 2017, the intensity of the Arakan conflict significantly decreased during 2018. The ARSA claimed responsibility for an attack in January 2018, but the state-based dyad of the ARSA and the government was not active in 2018.
Arakan Army increase fighting in and around Rakhine state
Although the ARSA drastically reduced its military activity in 2018 the state-based Arakan conflict was still active in 2018 as another previously low-intensity dyad became active for the first time. The Arakan Army (AA), which fights for self-determination for the people of Arakan, clashed with the government of Myanmar (Burma) in northern Rakhine state as well as in southwest Chin state. The Arakan Army was founded in 2009 and is closely connected to the KIO. It is also part of the tactical alliance “Northern Alliance (Burma)”, also including the MNDAA, the PSLF (TNLA) and KIO.
In 2019, the clashes between the Arakan Army and the government of Myanmar (Burma) continued with an increase in the level of violence compared to the previous year. Besides direct clashes, the two sides continued to attack one another via missile attacks and landmine explosions. Even though the conflict is concentrated on the state-based level, attacks have often resulted in civilian casualties throughout the year.
The clashes between the government of Myanmar (Burma) and Arakan Army continued until the end of October 2020. In November, the government of Myanmar (Burma) and the Arakan Army had an informal ceasefire as both parties started to discuss the potential of peace process negotiations.
