SUMMARY
Tanzania experienced an active intrastate armed conflicts for the first time in 2020, as it was attacked by Islamic State (IS) insurgents based in Mozambique. Tanzania had long been an important recruitment ground for the Islamic State insurgency in Mozambique, and its arrival in Tanzania meant the expansion of IS’ Central Africa Province's goal to include integrating Tanzania into its Islamic State (see Tanzania: Islamic State). Some small-scale raids continued in 2021, but violence overall decreased below the threshold of activity, partly due to a large coalition of African states, including Tanzania, sending troops to combat IS inside of Mozambique as secondary warring supporters to the government there.
Since 1989, Tanzania has experienced the intrastate and one-sided categories of UCDP organized violence.
2025
Tanzania has since its union with Zanzibar been ruled by CCM, which since the 1990s allowed for multiparty elections while retaining one-party rule. During the rule of John Magufuli (2015-2021), civic space shrunk further as his regime became increasingly authoritarian. Recurring waves of protests and violent suppression in connection to elections thus took place in 2020 and 2025, with the 2025 crackdown being particularly brutal. The government and the long-ruling CCM faced a crisis upon the death of Magufuli whilst in office in 2021, as his vice president Samia Suluhu Hassan inherited power. The party had become increasingly unpopular, and Hassan lacked the personal popularity that Magufuli had been able to enjoy. Early attempts to portray herself as a reformer were quickly abandoned, as they appeared to both emboldened opposition within CCM and from the opposition. As Tanzania held general elections in October 2025, Hassan appeared determined to secure an overwhelming electoral victory to shore up her legitimacy, no matter what. The main opposition party Chadema was barred from participating, and the elections themselves were immediately condemned as fraudulent. Hassan's government claimed to have won 97.66% of the vote with record turnout, a result largely ridiculed both within and outside Tanzania. Demonstrations began on 29 October, the day of the election, in several cities across Tanzania, demanding free and fair elections and the resignation of the government. Although largely peaceful, the protests were met with violence from the security forces. More than 1,000 civilians were killed by the government in one-sided violence over the next few days, both as part of protests and through extrajudicial executions by government forces that roamed around to enforce a curfew and ban on any form of gatherings. A further 360 people died in violent protests, recorded in the VPP category of UCDP violence. It is very likely that many more people were killed, as unverified claims by the opposition and some NGOs put the death toll at somewhere between 3,500 and 10,000. The election crackdown has shattered Tanzania's image of being a stable 'island of peace' in a turbulent neighborhood.
Background: From Independence to Invasion by Uganda
Modern-day Tanzania was created through the merger of the mainland Tanganyika and the island of Zanzibar in 1964. Mainland Tanganyika achieved independence from the British in 1961, whilst Zanzibar reached such status in 1963.
The Tanganyikan campaign for independence from the British was led by the TANU (Tanganyika African National Union) movement whose leader Julius Nyerere became the first Prime Minister of independent Tanganyika. On Zanzibar, independence was granted in the form of a constitutional monarchy, being ruled by an elected government and a Sultan of Arab descent. This constitutional order was overthrown in early 1964 by Abeid Karume’s ASP (Afro-Shirazi Party), however, which drew support from the poorer African classes to create dissent against the richer Arabs. Most of the Arab population was subsequently expelled from Zanzibar following this takeover. In April 1964 Zanzibar entered into a union with Tanganyika, creating the state of Tanzania.
Nyerere instituted a rule of one-party socialism in the new state of Tanzania, which was relatively benign when compared to those of other contemporary autocratic rulers in Africa. His ambitious socialist project for agricultural and industrial development brought improvements in health care and education, but also caused harsh economic difficulties, with the country becoming more and more reliant on foreign aid throughout the 1970s and 1980s. Nyerere passed on control of the country to Ali Hassa Mwinyi in 1985 and Tanzania abandoned one-party rule in the mid-1990s and held multiparty elections. Whilst Tanzania has since formally been a multiparty democracy the ruling party has continued to maintain its control by severely limiting opposition activities.
Tanzania has managed to avoid intrastate armed conflict during most of its time as an independent state, but has become embroiled in conflicts in neighboring countries. In 1978 and 1979 Tanzania gave secondary warring support to Ugandan rebel groups in their intrastate armed conflict against the regime of Ugandan president Idi Amin. Uganda under Amin had in 1978 attempted to annex parts of Tanzania (see the Tanzania–Uganda) and relations between the two countries were sour in general, in part due to constant accusations made by Amin of Tanzania wanting to reinstate his rival Milton Obote (whom Amin had ousted when seizing power). Tanzania committed combat troops to the fight in Uganda, which ended with the ouster of Idi Amin in 1979.
Persistent small-scale violence
Tanzania did not experience any active intrastate armed conflicts until 2020, but had many small communal conflicts and unclear violence prior to this. Notably, Tanzania has had long-standing conflicts with small-scale violence with its pastoralist Maasai community, that have long faced pressure, occasionally resulting in armed violence, from the government and private corporations to vacate their traditional grazing land. Maasai pastoralists have also repeatedly clashed with farming communities in Serengeti and Loliondo. There has also been instances of violence in Zanzibar, the archipelago off the coast of the mainland. The 2000 election was especially divisive and resulted in a government crackdown on protests in Zanzibar, killing at least 37 people. Elections have often resulted in [one-sided violence from the government(/#/onesided/937) as the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party, in power since independence in 1961, has cracked down on opposition activities and protests.
During the period 2013-2017, Tanzania suffered from violence committed by a suspected Islamist group often called Ansar Sunnah or al-Shabaab, reportedly linked to al-Shabaab in Somalia. The group never released a statement of its intent other than to punish injustices committed by the government, and is thus coded as not having an incompatibility. Following a government crackdown in 2017 members of the group reportedly fled to Cabo Delgado in Mozambique, where they participated in the conflict over government in Mozambique perpetrated by a group variously known as Ansar al-Sunnah, al-Shabaab, and Ahlu al-Sunna wa'l Jama'a (ASWJ), which later became part of Islamic State (IS).
Arrival of Islamic State
Tanzania experienced an active intrastate armed conflicts for the first time in 2020, as it was attacked by IS insurgents based in Mozambique. Tanzania had long been an important recruitment ground for the Islamic State insurgency in Mozambique, having experienced its own home-grown Islamist insurgency by unknown groups in Kibiti and Rufiji districts in 2017, many who fled to join the budding insurgency in Mozambique following a government crackdown. The arrival of IS) in Tanzania meant the expansion of the goal of its Central Africa Province to include integrating Tanzania into the Islamic State (see Tanzania: Islamic State). Some small-scale raids continued in 2021, but violence overall decreased below the threshold of activity, partly due to a large coalition of African states, including Tanzania, sending troops to combat IS inside of Mozambique as secondary warring supporters to the government there.
Government suppression
The government of Tanzania, since independence ruled by the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party, has at times made use of one-sided violence against its population, in particular when suppressing opposition activities in connection with elections. The CCM had introduced a limited form of multiparty democracy in 1994, while retaining power for itself through a mixture of oppression, electoral fraud, and genuine legitimacy as the party that secured the country's independence from colonial rule and organized the union between Tanganyika and Zanzibar. One-sided violence surpassed 25 deaths for the first time as protests broke out on Zanzibar in January 2001, in response to reports of widespread election fraud during the October 2000 elections. During the rule of John Magufuli (2015-2021), civic space shrunk further as his regime became increasingly authoritarian. Recurring waves of protests and violent suppression in connection to elections thus took place in 2020 and 2025, with the 2025 crackdown being particularly brutal. The government and the long-ruling CCM faced a crisis upon the death of Magufuli whilst in office in 2021, as his vice president Samia Suluhu Hassan inherited power. The party had become increasingly unpopular, and Hassan lacked the personal popularity that Magufuli had been able to enjoy. Early attempts to portray herself as a reformer were quickly abandoned, as they appeared to both emboldened opposition within CCM and from the opposition. As Tanzania held general elections in October 2025, Hassan appeared determined to secure an overwhelming electoral victory to shore up her legitimacy, no matter what. The main opposition party Chadema was barred from participating, and the elections themselves were immediately condemned as fraudulent. Hassan's government claimed to have won 97.66% of the vote with record turnout, a result largely ridiculed both within and outside Tanzania. Demonstrations began on 29 October, the day of the election, in several cities across Tanzania, demanding free and fair elections and the resignation of the government. Although largely peaceful, the protests were met with violence from the security forces. The crackdown was particularly brutal in Dar es Salaam, the country's largest city, where a majority of fatalities took place. Mwanza and Arusha also saw significant violence. At least 1,000 civilians were killed by the government in one-sided violence over the next few days, both as part of protests and through extrajudicial executions by government forces that roamed around to enforce a curfew and ban on any form of gatherings. A further 360 people died in violent protests, recorded in the VPP category of UCDP violence. It is very likely that many more people were killed, as unverified claims by the opposition and some NGOs put the death toll at somewhere between 3,500 and 10,000. The election crackdown has shattered Tanzania's image of being a stable 'island of peace' in a turbulent neighborhood.
