UCDP

General information

Part of Conflict: Iraq: Government

Date of first stated goals of incompatibility: 2004-04-24
Comment on date of first stated goal of incompatibility: TQJBR was allegedly established by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. There was, however, throughout 2004 an ongoing debate among analysts about whether al-Zarqawi was involved in the organisation. Several aspects of the evidence connecting al-Zarqawi to TQJBR were questioned, and there was even some uncertainty whether he was alive.

The Jordanian al-Zarqawi allegedly went to Afghanistan in late 1999 where he joined forces with a Lebanese-formed group called Jund as-Sham. According to some sources, the time in Afghanistan linked al-Zarqawi to Osama bin Laden while others claim that Al-Zarqawi refused to join with al-Qaeda. In 2000, the Jordanian government sentenced al-Zarqawi to death in absence for supposed involvement in a foiled bomb plot. Following the escalation of fighting in Afghanistan in 2001, al-Zarqawi left the country and settled with the anti-government group Ansar al-Islam in northern Iraq.

During the lead-up to the invasion of Iraq in 2003, US intelligence argued that al-Zarqawi was the key link between Iran, the Iraqi government and al-Qaeda. Many analysts have discredited these claims as co-operation between Iran and Iraq, as well as the anti-Saddam Ansar al-Islam organization seemed quite unlikely. Later, it was claimed that the "al-Zarqawi network" had participated in planning terrorist attacks in Morocco 2003 and Madrid 2004. According to other sources it was reported that al-Zarqawi was killed during the US bombings of northern Iraq in March 2003.

On 6 January 2004, an audio message attributed to al-Zarqawi was posted on an Islamic website which called for armed struggle against US troops. In the message, no mention was made of any organized entity for this fight. In the early months of 2004, a letter captured by Iraqi security forces and several internet statements claimed to initiate a step-by-step insurgency directed against the US-supported government, Israel, the Kurd minority, and Shiite Muslims in Iraq. Several analysts argued that details in the recordings and the letter suggest that someone else was claiming to be al-Zarqawi.

It is thus unclear whether al-Zarqawi was alive and if so, whether he was active in the organization that started its activity in Baghdad. It was suggested that using the high-profile persona of al-Zarqawi, and later also the al-Qaeda connection, was useful for the organization to attract recruits. It has also been argued that the group probably had some base among former Iraqi secret police since it had resources to quickly launch large-scale operations in several parts of Iraq.

Regardless, on 24 April 2004, a statement proclaimed the objectives of the group Jamaat al-Tawhid waal-Jihad were to overthrow the Iraqi government, expel the multinational coalition forces from the country and establish a Sunni Islamic State under Sharia Law. This statement, as well as most of the ones that followed throughout the year, were not signed by al-Zarqawi but by the "Military Department" of the group.

TQJBR later changed name several times. In 2014, the group changed its name from ISI (Islamic State in Iraq) to its current name; IS.

Following the UCDP coding rule regarding the first stated goal of incompatibility, the conflict between Government of Iraq and IS remained a conflict over government, even after IS proclaimed in 2014 that they had established a caliphate in parts of Syria and Iraq. In contrast, state-based conflicts in for example Syria and Afghanistan, where IS made a first state goal concerning territory, were coded as territorial conflicts.

Date of first use of armed force: 2004-05-17
Comment on date of first use of armed force: According to government statements, the first attack by the al-Zarqawi group was directed against the Jordanian embassy in Baghdad in August 2003. The organization did not confirm this accusation.

Government statements following three suicide bombings in February, April, and May 2004 accused al-Zarqawi, and US forces claimed to have killed a member of the group in a clash in February. There is still some uncertainty about these incidents, why the date for first use of armed force which can be attributed to Jamaat al-Tawhid waal-Jihad was 17 May 2004.
First Battle Related Death: 2004-05-17
Comment on First Battle Related Death: The second communiqué issued by the "Military department" of the Jamaat al-Tawhid waal-Jihad was released on 2 May 2004. In the communiqué, posted on the internet, the group claimed that two suicide bomb attacks on 30-31 April had led to the killing of over 120 soldiers. No such attacks had been reported, why the claims seemed unfounded.

In its sixth communiqué, the "Military department" of the Jamaat al-Tawhid al waal Jihad claimed responsibility for the killing of the head of the Iraqi Governing Council and eight other people. This incident was also claimed by another group, but the details given by Jamaat al-Tawhid waal Jihad suggested their responsibility for the attack.

Date when dyad reached 25 battle releated deaths: 2004-06-19
Comment on date when dyad reached 25 battle related deaths: Further incidents in forms of shootings and car bombs followed in May and June 2004 in Baghdad, and US spokespersons claimed that air strikes in Falluja targeted bases for the group during mid-June. On June 19 US aircraft fired two missiles on two houses in the Jubayl neighbourhood, south west of Al-Fallujah, causing the death of over 20 Iraqis.

Conflict issues

Conflict Goal Issues: Islamic State, al-Dawla al-Islamiya, (IS) was a Salafist-Sunni Islamist global rebel group that emerged in Iraq and Syria in 2004. The group originally emerged with the goals of toppling the Iraqi regime and replacing the government with an Islamic state with Sharia law as well as ousting the occupying forces currently residing in the country, but its goals drastically shifted as it grew in size to wish to establish a global Islamic caliphate governed by Sharia law. Whilst the group was international for the majority of its existence, IS is considered a rebel group involved in several dyads as the group fought against, and attempted to overthrow, several individual governments as part of its international aims, and has been coded as such. However, many IS statements were not pertaining to specific countries, and the project has, hence, chosen to code them as pertaining to all countries with significant IS presence. Finally, whilst various groups have claimed allyship and adherence to IS, only statements from official IS groups have been coded by the project as legitimate sources for interpreting conflict issues. Whilst groups that would later become IS became active in Iraq in 2004, following the ousting of Saddam Hussein and the foreign occupation of Iraq by U.S., UK, and Australian forces, the group ISI, Islamic State in Iraq, was established in 2006. During the year of its emergence, the group pronounced several conflict goal issues. They called for the oppression of Sunni Muslims by “hateful rejectionists and the occupying crusaders” (non-believers, Shiites, and the occupying forces) to be ended and for their religious rights to be restored and respected. ISI also stated its intent in changing the political and judicial system through the establishment of an Islamic State governed by Sharia law.

As the conflict progressed, the ISI continuously reaffirmed its intent in protecting religious rights and changing the political and judicial system in Iraq. Furthermore, many new issues were pronounced by the group and related international IS groups, which is why only issues that were mentioned continuously will be discussed in this narrative. In the beginning of the conflict, as a part of its plan to establish an Islamic State, the group began calling for the ousting of the Iraqi government with accusations of governmental corruption. The group also called attention to blasphemous acts perpetrated by Iraqi soldiers whilst also calling for the restriction of non-Sunni and non-Muslim religious rights. The group also indicated for cultural rights of Muslims to be protected, although this was not as frequently mentioned throughout the conflict as the other issues. In 2007, the group was pushed back significantly by coalition forces, and was, thus, far less communicative until 2009. In 2009, these issues were reemphasized, and also joined with calls for law and order to be protected and for economic reform, which are two issues the ISI would continuously call for toward the latter stages of the coded conflict. During 2014 ISI and IS as a whole initiated a clear shift in policy, goals, and aims toward the establishment of an international Islamic caliphate. This also had an effect on the pronounced conflict goal issues as the group became more communicative and more focused on becoming positively regarded by international Muslims. Likely for this reason, ISI began calling for the civil rights and basic needs of Muslims to be protected and respected, whilst also calling for gender-, civil-, and religious rights to be restricted for non-Muslims. The group also began calling for and implementing changes to infrastructure to ensure the availability of public services in their controlled areas. Finally, they also began calling for increased religious, particularly Sunni-Muslim, teachings in schools.

Throughout the conflict, ISI continuously pronounced several conflict goal issues as important to the group. Preventing blasphemy, changing the judicial system, establishing an Islamic State, ousting the Iraqi government, protecting Muslim rights, and restricting religious rights of non-believers were all frequently mentioned throughout the conflict. The most heavily emphasized issues were, however, the establishment of an Islamic state, the establishment of Sharia law, and the protection of Muslim rights, as these were frequently stated with heavy emphasis and became foundational pillars for the Islamic State as a group, which is why they are considered its main issues.

Conflict Dynamics Issues: During the first year of ISI’s existence, the group stated several conflict dynamics issues. They called attention to collective targeting and structural oppression of Sunni Muslims based on their faith, whilst also calling for the collective targeting of non-Muslims in Iraq. The group also heavily emphasized the removal of foreign forces and foreign influence from Iraqi soil: “lift the injustice suffered by the Sunnis overpowered by the hateful rejectionists and the occupying crusaders, and to assist the oppressed, and restore his rights to him”. They also called for the release of prisoners.

As the conflict progressed, the ISI began calling attention to alleged atrocities against Muslim civilians based on their religious beliefs, which would become a commonly stated issue for the group. They also continued to emphasize the removal of foreign forces and influence throughout the entire coded conflict. The group also continued its emphasis on collective targeting of non-Muslims, specifically calling for the targeting of ‘Kuffar’ (non-believers). ISI also began calling for vengeance against atrocities committed against Muslims and called for the international Muslim diaspora to assist the group’s cause financially and militarily. These two issues would become heavily emphasized after 2014 as well. Throughout the conflict, ISI released sparse statements pertaining to collective targeting of political supporters of the Iraqi government and non-commissioned members of the military and for international financial support from non-Muslims, although these were not continuously stated.

The main conflict dynamics issues of the ISI were the calls for removal of foreign forces, calls for collective targeting of non-Muslims, specifically relating to international terrorism toward the later stages of conflict, and the accusations of atrocities perpetrated by state militaries in the area against Muslims based on their Islamic faith. These issues were continuously mentioned, but also especially emphasized throughout the entire conflict.

Conflict Resolution Issues: ISI made few remarks regarding conflict resolution issues, and the resolution of conflict does not seem to have been a high priority for the group. Throughout the conflict, they stated its support of Islamism, its opposition to peace agreements, and a call for compensation of Muslim civilians who had been targeted by government violence on singular instances. These were the only stated conflict resolution issues interpreted by the ISI.

Type of conflict issues: The coded conflict issues for this group are: Conflict Goal Issues: Basic needs, Blasphemy, Change economic system, Change judicial system, Change of administrative divisions, Civil rights, Corruption, CPS: Islamic state, Destruction of cultural heritage, Economic reforms, Education system: culture, Education system: increase religion, Gender rights, Labor rights, Law and order, Oust full executive, Protection of cultural heritage, Public services, Reform executive structure, Religious rights, Restriction of gender rights, Restrictions on civil rights, Restrictions on religious rights, Restructure military forces, Restructure police forces, Revenues from natural resources, Rule of law, Security sector power-sharing, State structures, Unification of states, Water resources

Conflict Dynamics Issues: Atrocities and abuses, Call for collective targeting: other group, Call for collective targeting: political, Call for collective targeting: religious, Collective targeting: ethnic, Collective targeting: religious, DFI: Removal of foreign influence, DFI: Withdrawal of military intervention/foreign forces, IFI: Financial support, IFI: Support from diasporas/foreign fighters, Release of prisoners, Revenge/vengeance

Conflict Resolution Issues: Compensation/restoration, Islamism, Opposition to peace agreement