This dyad belongs to the conflict India: Assam
Summary of conflict India: Assam
The territorial conflict in Assam has pitted ULFA (United Liberation Front of Assam) against the government of India. The rebels sought independence for Assam, which they considered never to have been a legitimate part of India. The ULFA has set up bases beyond Indian borders in Bangladesh and Bhutan, and each of these countries has- on occasion- cooperated with Indian counterinsurgency operations. Early attempts to hold negotiations between the ULFA and Government of India were hampered by the ULFAs demand that independence be a point of discussion. In 2011 ULFA dropped this demand and proclaimed a ceasefire with the government. After this both sides have engaged in negotiations.
During negotiations between ULFA and India, Paresh Barua, who had been commander in chief of the group, broke away from the group and formed ULFA-Independent (ULFA-I). In 2015, several groups in the northeast of India and northwest of Myanmar's formed an umbrella group, the UNLFW, with ULFA-I being a founding member. In subsequent years, various groups joined the UNLFW, which, as of 2018, consisted of at least 10 groups: KCP, KLO, KYKL, GNLA, NDFB-S, NSCN-K, PDCK, PREPAK, ULFA (I) and UNLF.
The incompatibilities over India's Assam, Bodoland, Garoland, Manipur and Nagaland were subsumed under the West South East Asia territory. As a result, the conflicts over the the individual territories comprising the West South East Asia territory became inactive in the years in which the main groups fighting over the territory, and consequently contributing to the battle-related deaths threshold for inclusion in the UCDP data, joined the UNLFW. For example, when the groups fighting over the Manipur incompatibility joined the UNLFW, this conflict became inactive, and the fighting has since then been recorded under the conflict over West South East Asia.
Origins and start of the conflict
The insurgency in Assam primarily emerged out of one single issue: the influx of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh/East Pakistan. An anti-foreigner movement emerged in the late 1970s, mobilising support based on the sense of relative deprivation among the tribal people vis-à-vis the Bengali settlers. This movement demanded the settlers expulsion from Assam. ULFA (United Liberation Front of Assam), established on 7 April 1979, was a part of this movement, and took on an operational agenda closely connected to the anti-foreigner campaign of the other Assamese groups. However, its political agenda was broader, as it declared that its goal was "to establish a sovereign, independent Assam." The incompatibility underlying the Assamese conflict is framed by this separatist demand. ULFA rejected the notion that Assam ever legitimately has been a part of India, and thus saw themselves as freedom fighters rather than a secessionist-movement.
The ULFA launched its military campaign in 1983, but violence remained at a low level throughout the 1980s. The Assam Accord, signed in 1985, paved the way for a change of government in favour of the nationalist movement. ULFA, however, refused to submit to the new government established by its former associates, and remained determined to continue the armed struggle for an independent state. As violence continued in the late 1980s, the close personal linkages between ULFA and the state administration became a problem. The latter progressively lost control over the situation, and on 28 November 1990 the state government was dismissed on grounds of its support of ULFA; Assam was subsequently brought under central rule. The conflict escalated to the level of an armed conflict in the same year. The primary warring parties in the conflict have since been the ULFA and the Indian government.
Conflict dynamics and regional linkages
Throughout the 1990s the central government pursued a twofold strategy to curb the insurgency waged by ULFA (United Liberation Front of Assam). On the one hand it launched major military counterinsurgency operations, while at the same time pursuing negotiations with the insurgents. In December 1991, negotiations resulted in a large-scale surrender of ULFA cadres. Approximately 4000 rebels surrendered in exchange for amnesty, but a group of hardliners refused to surrender and continued the armed struggle.
Due to the military and diplomatic success of the government, the remaining ULFA cadres were forced to operate from neighbouring countries. Bangladesh, Myanmar (Burma) and Bhutan have been accused by the Indian government of aiding the rebels, but apart from operational bases on neighbouring territory, it is difficult to verify information about active secondary support. ULFAs links with the Pakistan Inter Services Intelligence seem somewhat more established, though they are denied by Pakistan. Many of the other insurgency groups in northeast India have, at different points in time, acted as secondary supporting parties on the side of ULFA, among them NSCN (National Socialist Council of Nagaland) and NDFB (National Democratic Front for Bodoland).
As a consequence of the conflict’s regional linkages, the government’s efforts to reach a political solution to the conflict have had an equally broad-reaching span, as have attempts to defeat the rebels militarily. India has negotiated with Myanmar, Bangladesh and Bhutan to agree on joint efforts to curb rebel activity. Progression in such talks has at times forced ULFA to move its bases. The government of Myanmar has cooperated in operations to flush the rebels out of bases on their territory. Similarly, in 2003 the government of Bhutan, with assistance from the Indian armed forces, attacked rebel camps on its territory, many of which belonged to ULFA. However, Bhutanese officials stated that they undertook this operation purely for their own security interests, so this incident is not included in the Assam conflict.
The governments ongoing counterinsurgency campaign has put ULFA under heavy pressure. Large numbers of cadres have surrendered, popular support seems to have deteriorated, and the government has announced that the ULFA has been contained. Even though the territorial extent of the conflict has diminished, rebel activity of an increasingly criminal character has continued to inflict significant casualties. Following the military and organisational setbacks of the mid and late 1990s, ULFA also began to deliberately target Hindi speaking non-Assamese in civilian massacres.
Negotiation attempts
Prior to 2011, there had been no substantial talks between the primary warring parties, apart from the negotiated surrender of ULFA (United Liberation Front of Assam) cadres in 1991. In December 1991, talks were held and a general amnesty was declared for rebels who laid down their arms. Within one year approximately 4000 ULFA cadres had surrendered, jointly referred to as SULFA (Surrendered ULFA). A core of hardliners within the ULFA cadres, however, refused to surrender. Among them were several persons in the military and political leadership, and by mid-1992 it was apparent to all that the campaign of violence had resumed.
Following a long period with no progress, some steps towards negotiations were made in 2004. During that year, ULFA dropped two of its preconditions for talks, insisting only on including the issue of sovereignty. In September, the government made a ceasefire offer to ULFA; the latter, however, rejected the offer and instead urged for a referendum to decide the issue of independence. In 2005, despite continued fighting, tentative dialogue was commenced, and in 2006 several rounds of talks were held between the central government and ULFA, represented by the People’s Consultative Group (PCG), made up of 11 authors, lawyers and other professionals from Assam. A ceasefire was in place for much of the year, with only sporadic attacks taking place. However, the talks eventually broke down as both sides accused each other of violating the provisions of the ceasefire agreement, which was not extended after it ran out in September.
Subsequent attempts to find a political solution to the conflict have been hampered by disagreement over the initial preconditions for any such talks. ULFA has demanded: 1) that negotiations should take place under supervision of the UN; 2) that talks should be held outside India; and 3) that talks should center on their central demand of sovereignty. The Indian government has responded that the surrender of the ULFA cadres is a precondition before talks can proceed, and that UN participation would infringe on Indias sovereignty. During 2010, there were some indications that the demand for Assamese sovereignty might be loosened, as Chairman Rajkhowa indicated willingness to negotiate without preconditions. This has been proved during 2011, when the first official rounds of negotiations were held. After this talks have contentiously been held between the parties but so far they failed to produce a permanent peace agreement.
The Splitting of the ULFA into Pro- and Anti-Talk Factions
Signs of a potential breakup within the ULFA manifested themselves in early 2011, when the Indian Government moved to begin peace talks with the organization. ULFA Commander-in-Chief Paresh Baruah remained adamantly opposed to ending his armed struggle before receiving recognition of Assamese sovereignty, which the Indian government denied it would ever do. A significant portion of the ULFA’s leadership, however, remained in favor of the peace talks despite the anti-sovereignty position of the Indian Government.
The ULFA split vertically between a pro-talk faction and anti-talk faction on 8 February 2011. The split occurred when the ULFA General Council- chaired by Arabinda Rajkhowa in Assam- voted to begin unconditional talks with the Indian Government. Commander-in-Chief Paresh Baruah (believed to be hiding near the Myanmar-China border) denounced the General Council and its decision as unconstitutional and vowed to continue the fight for Assamese sovereignty. It is reported that approximately two dozen of Baruah’s officers and aids deserted their posts in Bangladesh around the time of the split and re-joined the pro-talk ULFA forces in India. In 2013 the anti-Talk faction of ULFA changed name to ULFA-I (Independent).
