This dyad belongs to the conflict Philippines: Mindanao
Summary of conflict Philippines: Mindanao
Rooted in Moro nationalism as a response to large-scale influx of settlers, the territorial conflict in the Philippines centers on independence for the Moros in the southern region of Mindanao. Since the conflict onset in the 1970s, several armed groups have fought for the Moro issue. The conflict has proven intractable in nature, despite attempts at a solution. Several agreements have been signed, none of which have ended the conflict. In 2018, the government of Philippines initiated the Program Against Violent Extremism (PAVE) for peace, which offered livelihood assistance to any fighters who would surrender to the government. Since the establishment of PAVE, the number of ASG fighters active in the Sulu Archipelago, the stronghold of ASG, decreased. In 2021, tens of ASG fighters surrendered to the government which led to significant decrease in ASG activities and associated fighting.
In 2025, the conflict did not surpass the UCDP’s minimum threshold of 25 deaths and was therefore excluded from its dataset.
Background and context
The Philippines is made up of 7100 islands (some 1000 of which are populated) that can be loosely divided into three groups: Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. The Mindanao region in the south bordering Malaysia consists of several islands such as Basilan, Jolo, and Tawi-Tawi. Mindanao Island is the second largest island of the Philippines with 16 million inhabitants, rich in natural resources such as oil and natural gas. Both the Communist insurgency (for more information see the Philippine conflict over government power) and the Moro national struggle have been active in Mindanao and the region is one of the most underdeveloped in the Philippines, with the lowest literacy rates (75%) and life expectancy (57 years).
The Philippines was ‘discovered’ by the Spanish in the early 16th century and was a Spanish colony for more than three centuries. The Spanish colonizers brought their religion to the islands and today nearly 90% of the country’s population is Roman Catholic. However, the Spanish armies never managed to colonize the southern regions which had been Muslim since Arab traders had brought Islam to the region between the 10th and 12th centuries. The Spanish referred to the natives of the southern islands as "moros," since they shared the religion of the old Spanish enemy, the Muslim moors.
Under the Treaty of Paris, which ended the Spanish-American war in 1898, Spain ceded the Philippines to the Americans, and the country became a US protectorate. Just like the Spanish forces, the US army had difficulties controlling the Muslim areas in the south. When the Philippines was granted independence after the Second World War, the new government, dominated by Christian Filipinos, encouraged the landless poor from the northern and central islands to move to the southern regions in order to defuse rural unrest, not least in light of the communist Huk war in the 1940s-1950s (For more information see the Philippine conflict over government power). This influx of Christian settlers at the rate of thousands a week naturally led to social conflicts. The government saw this as a manifestation of the "violent" character of the Moros, and launched several pacification campaigns during the 1960s. Moro nationalism became increasingly self-assertive and expressed in combination with a Malaysian word, Bangsa (nation); the Bangsamoro movement was born.
In the late 1960s, only 25% of the population in Mindanao was Muslim, compared to 75% at the turn of the century, and little if any revenue from exports found its way back to the province. On 17 March 1968, Christian officers killed at least 28 Muslim recruits in what is referred to as the Jabidah massacre. Reports suggested that the young Moros had refused to participate in training for infiltration of the (Muslim) Malaysian state of Sabah. The incident sparked violent communal clashes all over Mindanao that lasted for several years, including some attempts by Christian paramilitary groups to evict all remaining Muslims from parts of the island. In May 1968, a political leader in the province of Maguindanao formed MIM (Mindanao Independence Movement), with the outspoken goal to create an independent state in Mindanao. The youth section of MIM was sent to train in Malaysia, and soon thereafter some of the trainees formed MNLF (Moro National Liberation Front) under the leadership of Nur Misuari.
Conflict onset and activity during the 1970s and 1980s
During its first three years of existence, MNLF made a point of being a political underground movement. It took until the fall of 1972 before the group staged its first offensive. Soon, MNLF and its military wing BMA (Bangsa Moro Army) became the symbol for independence that the Moro struggle rallied around. MNLF emphasized that its target was the Philippine government rather than the Christian population, and by 1975, MNLF was considered a popular revolutionary movement supported by almost all Muslims in the Philippines as well as abroad.
The war was intense, and some sources claim that over 120 000 people were killed in total. Threats of an embargo from oil-producing countries that supported MNLF led to negotiations in 1975-76. Under pressure from OIC (Organisation of the Islamic Conference), MNLF dropped its demands for independence and settled for autonomy. The Tripoli Agreement of 1976 provided for the granting of autonomy to 13 of the 23 provinces in Mindanao, Sulu and Palewan islands, and the cities located therein. Several months later, President Ferdinand Marcos implemented his own version of autonomy by establishing two separate regional governments, which were regional but not autonomous.
When MNLF dropped its demand for independence, breakaway factions emerged: the MNLF-Reformist Group led by Dimas Pundato, and the "New MNLF" that later became MILF (Moro Islamic Liberation Front) led by Salamat Hashim. Hostilities resumed and continued into the early 1980s, with MNLF accusing the government of insincerity during the negotiations. There has still not been any redistribution of land which can be exemplified by the small island of Basilan where 71% of the population is Muslim, but where Christians own 75% of the land and ethnic Chinese control 75% of local trade.
In 1986, the newly elected President Corazon Aquino drafted a new constitution for the area and launched initiatives to bring peace to Mindanao. Peace talks were initiated but broke down in 1987, and in February 1988, MNLF resumed its armed insurrection. In 1987, the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) was passed in Congress and was subjected to a plebiscite in November 1989. Only four provinces opted for inclusion into the new autonomous structure. Both MNLF and MILF were against the proposition claiming it was not enough, and that they had not been invited to participate in the process.
The 1990s: a period of negotiations
In the early 1990s, increased international attention was directed towards Mindanao, as there were several incidents of high-profile kidnappings by criminal gangs as well as conflict parties. The newly established group ASG (Abu Sayyaf Group), based on the islands of Basilan and Jolo, was responsible for several kidnappings and attacks on civilians.
When Fidel Ramos was elected president in 1992, peace talks were once again initiated. Shortly after he had been instated, Ramos created NUC (National Unification Commission) in order to find a solution to the conflicts in the Philippines. After four years of negotiations in Tripoli and Jakarta, under the auspices of Indonesia, Libya and OIC (Organization of the Islamic Conference), the Final Peace Agreement was signed by the government and MNLF (Moro National Liberation Front) in Manila on 2 September 1996. The leader of MNLF, Nur Misuari, was elected governor of the new Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM). Even though MILF did not participate in the 1996 agreement, the group had committed not to stand in the way of peace and fighting decreased in the following years, as low-level talks between MILF and the government were held. Despite the start of formal negotiations in 1999, the government launched an "all-out war" policy against the Moro groups in 2000. Several government offensives during the first half of the year resulted in MILF leaving the negotiations in June 2000. The conflict escalated and in June, the government claimed that they had defeated MILF.
Conflict activity and developments during the 2000s
After President Joseph Estrada was ousted on corruption charges in early 2001, the peace process seemed to resume, and fighting decreased. The governor of ARMM, Nur Misauri, was also accused of corruption and was removed from his position as head of MNLF (Moro National Liberation Front) in March 2001. A week before new elections for the governorship were scheduled, Misauri claimed that the peace agreement of 1996 was not valid. Arguing that the Philippine government had not fulfilled their end of the agreement, Misauri took up arms with a faction of MNLF members in November 2001, attacking a military base. More clashes followed in December as Misauri fled into Malaysia, where he was arrested. When he was extradited and charged for rebellion in the Philippines in 2002, new clashes between the MNLF faction and government forces broke out. After Nur Misauri was jailed, the faction ceased to exist in the absence of his leadership. Most of the people involved in the clashes of 2001-02 rejoined MNLF or MILF .
During 2003, the conflict between the government and MILF escalated again, especially in the first six months. Numerous clashes and a couple of major offensives conducted by the military resulted in approximately 700 casualties (compared to less than 100 in the previous year). During the second half of 2003, relations between the parties became less hostile and several attempts to start peace talks were made; several ceasefires were also in place. The ceasefire lasted for the most part of 2004 as well. Sporadic clashes continued between 2004 and 2005 amidst fresh peace talks, but in 2006 the ceasefire was largely respected and the fighting de-escalated below the 25 battle-related death threshold for the first time since 1995. However, ASG (Abu Sayyaf Group) continued to carry out attacks and bombings. On 1 August 2006, the Philippine government launched a major offensive against the rebels on Jolo and by the end of the year, it was reported that ASG chieftain Khaddafy Janjalani had been killed.
In 2007, the conflict in Mindanao flared up again after the lull in 2006. MILF became active again as a negotiation deadlock between the warring parties persisted for the larger part of the year. A new rebel group became active in 2007 when a 400-strong MNLF faction under Habier Malik declared jihad (holy war) against the government in April. Further, ASG showed a tendency of greater tactical and logistical cooperation with other armed Moro groups in 2007 and carried out several attacks together with MILF, mainstream MNLF and the new MNLF - Habier Malik faction separately.
From three active rebel groups in 2007, the conflict in Mindanao was in 2008 down to only one, namely MILF. The first half of 2008 was characterized by low activity and few clashes between rebel groups and the armed forces. Nevertheless, due to collapsed peace talks between MILF and the Government during summer, violence flared up again and reached the highest levels since 2003, this in spite of the fact that fighting between ASG and the armed forces de-escalated below the 25 battle-related deaths threshold, leaving MILF the only active rebel group.
In 2009, violence escalated as MILF and ASG (Abu Sayyaf Group) stepped up their attacks on the government. However, when MILF signed a unilateral ceasefire in late July and shortly thereafter started negotiating with the government, violence decreased dramatically. Fighting between government forces and ASG continued, however, and during the fall of 2009, violent encounters took place in the Sulu province and on the island of Basilan.
Conflict dynamics during the 2010s
In 2010, violence decreased significantly as MILF upheld the ceasefire declared in 2009, while negotiating with the government of the Philippines. ASG was the only active group in the conflict and clashed with government forces, particularly in the first half of the year. In spite of ongoing peace talks and a stated willingness to conclude a peace deal, violence between the government of the Philippines escalated in late 2011. However, both parties confirmed that the ceasefire proclaimed in 2009 was still in place.
Throughout 2012, the government of the Philippines and MILF progressed in peace talks, resulting in the signing of the Framework Agreement on Bangsamoro (FAB) in October. However, a splinter group from MILF called Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Movement (BIFM) renounced the peace agreement and clashed with the government of the Philippines on several occasions. Moreover, ASG remained active with no attempts at negotiation.
Building on previous years, negotiations led to the signing of three out of four annexes to the Framework Agreement in 2013, and battle related deaths between the MILF and government forces remained low. Still, ASG, BIFM and [MNLF-NM] (/#/actor/275) continued fighting. Notably, [MNLF-NM] (/#/actor/275) attacked the Zamboanga city Center, reappearing as an active group. The group opposed the peace talks with MILF and declared a short-lived "Bangsamoro Republik”. In March 2014, the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB) was signed by the Philippine government and MILF, formally ending four decades of conflict. Despite the agreement, ASG and BIFM continued fighting. BIFM vowed to continue the armed struggle for a separate Islamic state. 2015 saw the breakdown of a three year ceasefire between MILF and government forces, and the peace process was stalled amid delays in passing the Bangsamoro Basic Law. Meanwhile, ASG and BIFM remained active combattants.
Although fighting subsided between the MILF and the government of the Philippines in 2016, the BBL (Bangsamoro Basic Law) continued to be delayed by the new President Rodrigo Duerte. ASG, the ASG splinter al-Harakat al-Islamiyah, BIFM, and the emerging Maute group continued operating.
ASG was the focus of a large offensive launched by the government during which the latter captured several rebel camps and deployed thousands of soldiers to ASG strongholds in Sulu. ASG splintered on 4 January 2016 when commander Isnilon Hapilon announced the unification of the pro-IS groups in a video. He then referred to his part of the ASG (based on Basilan) with their original name, al-Harakat al-Islamiyah. The part of ASG remaining in the Sulu region is from that date seen as the continuation of the group, under the leadership of Radullan Sahiron, while the actions of ASG in Basilan is recorded in the al-Harakat al-Islamiyah dyad. Al-Harakat al-Islamiyah formally joined IS on 20 April 2016, when the IS Al Naba newsletter presented Hapilon as the emir of the Islamic State forces in the Philippines. Consequently, their activity after 20 April is recorded in the conflict over the territory called Islamic State.
Fighting with BIFM continued during 2016, with a government offensive launched in February. The operation resulted in the capture of a major BIFM camp in Maguindanao. The group became part of IS on 20 April 2016.
The Maute group emerged as a training unit around 2011, but it was not until 2016 that fighting between the Maute forces and the Philippine government resulted in at least 25 battle-related deaths. The group became part of IS on 20 April 2016, and their activity after that date is recorded in the conflict over the territory called Islamic State.
In February 2017, efforts to revive the peace process led to the drafting of an expanded, more inclusive, Bangsamoro Basic Law. Fighting was limited to clashes with ASG, which faced several government offensives. That year, ASG and a breakaway faction, BIFM-K, were active in combat. BIFM-K had split from BIFM following the latter’s alignment with IS. In July 2018, President Duterte signed the Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL) creating the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao in line with the peace agreement signed with MILF in 2014. The clashes between the government forces and BIFM-K, a splinter faction that broke away from BIFM after its 2016 decision to join IS, led to 25 battle-related deaths. BIFM-K and ASG were the two groups active in fighting in 2018.
In January 2019, the Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL) was ratified and a transitional Bangsamoro authority was sworn in. Many of the factions originating from MILF joined IS in its conflict against the Philippine Government over the territory Islamic State instead. ASG remained the sole active combattant group. In 2020, ASG’s activity intensified, including kidnappings, roadside bombings, shootings, and various attacks on military and police installations, mainly in Sulu and Basilan provinces.
From 2017 to 2023, more than 900 ASG fighters on Sulu island surrendered to the government, which led to disarmament and a significant reduction in ASG activities and related violence. The conflict has since 2022 remained inactive as it has not exceeded the UCDP's threshold of at least 25 battle deaths in a year. During this period the transitional Bangsamoro authority have continued to govern the region while preparations for the first regular parliamentary elections remain ongoing.
