This dyad belongs to the conflict India: Nagaland
Summary of conflict India: Nagaland
The territorial conflict in the Nagaland region dates back to 1980, when NSCN (National Socialist Council of Nagaland) stated their goal of an independent Nagaland. The group later split into two factions in 1988, and again into three factions in 2011. A peace process was initiated in 1995, but despite several ceasefires, violence continued, although on a relatively low scale.
In 2015, several groups in the northeast of India and northwest of Myanmar's formed an umbrella group, the UNLFW. In subsequent years, various groups joined the UNLFW, which, as of 2018, consisted of at least 10 groups: KCP, KLO, KYKL, GNLA, NDFB-S, NSCN-K, PDCK, PREPAK, ULFA (I) and UNLF.
The incompatibilities over India's Assam, Bodoland, Garoland, Manipur and Nagaland were subsumed under the West South East Asia incompatibility. As a result, the conflicts over the the individual territories comprising the West South East Asia territory became inactive in the years in which the main groups fighting over the territory, and consequently contributing to the battle-related deaths threshold for inclusion in the UCDP data, joined the UNLFW. For example, when the groups fighting over the Manipur incompatibility joined the UNLFW, this conflict became inactive, and the fighting has since then been recorded under the conflict over West South East Asia.
Conflict background and the NSCN
Among all the ethnic groups and tribes living in the northeast, the Nagas were the first to raise the banner of revolt against the Indian government. The term ‘Naga’ is used to collectively identify a whole range of sub-groups of tribes that share a common cultural, ethnic and linguistic heritage in and around the present-day Indian state of Nagaland. Another unifying bond is the overwhelming predominance (some 98%) of Christianity, most Nagas having converted after coming into contact with early Christian missionaries.
Arguing that the high level of independence given to the Naga during British rule should be mirrored in the post-colonial make-up the NCC (Naga Nationalist Council) voiced its demand for a separate Naga state already on 14 August 1947 when the Indian Union was first created after the retreat of the British Empire. Having come to an agreement in June 1947 on the Naga areas being joined to India did little to end the conflict in the long run, as the agreement made contained stipulations that were interpreted differently by the signatory Nagas and the Indian government. Whilst the NCC interpreted the so-called Nine Point Agreement as mandating a referendum after 10 years on independence, the government only saw the possibility to renegotiate the level of autonomy of the Naga areas. The conflict of interests thus continued throughout the 1950s.
In an attempt to bring about a political settlement of the conflict, Nagaland was established as a separate state under the Indian constitution in 1963. The NNC chose to continue the insurgency, but was eventually forced to the negotiation table in the mid-1970s. The Shillong Agreement was signed in November 1975, whereby NNC accepted the Indian constitution and agreed to surrender.
A group of about 140 cadres refused to surrender and in 1978 formed a new underground movement, called the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN). Its manifesto, issued in January 1980, called for the establishment of a "greater Nagaland," referred to as "Nagalim" or "The Peoples Republic of Nagaland”. It declared the "unquestionable sovereign right of the Naga people over every inch of Naga territory," and advocated the "dictatorship of the people" within a socialist state of Nagaland. Furthermore, the armed struggle for a free Nagaland was undertaken in the name of God: "Nagaland for Christ." This was the insurgents’ first stated goal of incompatibility.
Simply put, the conflict concerns the constitutional status of the state of Nagaland. It should, however, be noted that the insurgents perception of the incompatibility differs from that of the government. Firstly, the territory that falls within NSCNs vision of a "greater Nagaland" not only includes the present state of Nagaland, but also parts of Assam, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Myanmar. Secondly, the NSCN refuses to consider the call for a separate state a "secessionist demand." In its view, the Naga areas have never legitimately been a part of the Indian Union. The NSCN has taken an inflexible stand on the issue of the Nagas’ historically established right to independence from India. For the Indian government the separatist agitation is perceived as a violation of the territorial integrity of the state.
Divisions along clan lines among the Nagas resulted in a vertical split in the organisation in 1988. The Konyak tribe, which formed the rank and file of the NSCN, formed a breakaway faction under the leadership of S.S Khaplang. The Tangkhuls, which dominated the command structure of the NSCN, continued under the leadership of Isaac C. Swu and T. Muivah. Even though the Khaplang faction (NSCN - K) remained active operating from bases in Myanmar, it did not reach the threshold of 25 yearly battle-related deaths during any year in the 1990s. It was instead the Isaac-Muivah faction (NSCN - IM) that emerged as the dominant military and political force even though the threat of cross-border attacks from NSCN - K influenced government activity in the region.
Conflict dynamics
Sporadic incidents of rebel violence were reported in the period following the split of the NSCN (National Socialist Council of Nagaland) in 1988, but it was not until 1992 that it could be confirmed that 25 persons had been killed in clashes between the NSCN - IM and Indian security forces. From 1992 and onwards the insurgency continued at a relatively low level of intensity but the total number of casualties in the area has been far higher than those suggested by estimates of battle-related deaths. As a part of a deliberate strategy to enforce the vision of a "greater Nagaland," the insurgents have targeted other ethnic groups and forced their violent expulsion from the territory. Inter-factional fighting between the Isaac - Muivah and Khaplang factions of NSCN has also taken a heavy toll both on insurgents and civilian life. It has been estimated that the conflict has claimed 20 000 lives during the last four decades.
In line with the insurgents' expansive vision of the territory to be included in a "greater Nagaland," fighting has not been limited to Nagaland territory. While immediate interests have coincided, strong regional linkages have remained between territorial insurgencies in the neighbouring Indian states. NSCN is, however, widely considered to be among the strongest outfits in the region. It has allegedly also received secondary support from sections within Bangladesh, Thailand, Burma and Myanmar. According to the Indian government, NSCN cadres have also been trained by Pakistan's Inter Service Intelligence in Pakistan. These allegations were denied by the Pakistani government.
As relations have improved between India and the Myanmar government, there was increased co-operation in the fighting against the NSCN - K. After several high-level meetings where the issue of Indian rebel groups moving across the border was discussed, the Myanmar government agreed to support India in the conflict. Even though Myanmar claimed to have launched offensives in the region earlier, these were generally considered as ineffectual and not serious attempts to target the NSCN - K. Starting in 2004, and guided by Indian intelligence, Myanmar initiated several large-scale operations against rebel bases on the border which led to a conflict between Myanmar and NSCN-K (See conflict description Myanmar (Burma): Nagaland). Low-level violence have persisted between Indian security forces and the NSCN-IM.
Negotiations
Attempts to find a political solution to the conflict have become a drawn-out process, initiated in 1995, and has more or less continued through the end of 2003. An informal process of dialogue commenced in mid-1995 when the then prime minister met the NSCN - IM leadership in Paris, and later offered to hold unconditional talks with the rebel outfits. The offer was repeated in early 1996, but the NSCN - IM remained determined that there were three preconditions for talks: 1) negotiations should focus on sovereignty; 2) talks should be held in a third country; 3) a third party mediator should be included. This left the peace process in a temporary deadlock.
In early 1997, several factors coincided to put pressure on the NSCN - IM and facilitate negotiations for a political solution: the success of the government's counter-insurgency operations in the northeast; the arrest of several prominent persons in the NSCN - IM leadership; Myanmar's hostile attitude towards NSCN activity on its territory; Indo-Bangladesh cooperation on preventing rebel activity along their joint border; and, finally, the strengthening of the hostile Khaplang-faction of the NSCN under the alleged patronage of the local Nagaland state government.
The two leaders of the NSCN - IM, Issac Swu and T.H. Muivah, met the prime minister in February 1997 and expressed their willingness to find a political formula that could settle the Naga issue. Peace talks initiated by the government formally began in late July, and was concluded with the announcement of a three-month ceasefire between the parties, in place from 1 August 1997. No issues specifically relating to the incompatibility were addressed in these initial talks. Talks resumed in May 1998 and three series of talks were held in the latter half of the year. During these talks NSCN - IM reiterated its stand that the Naga right to self-determination was non-negotiable. The parties thus also failed to agree on the legitimacy of the Indian constitution as the framework for a political solution.
Furthermore, the government also signed a ceasefire with the rival faction NSCN - K in 2000 to limit the occasional cross-border attacks. This ceasefire was only valid on the territory of the Indian administrative Nagaland region. Both the ceasefire with NSCN - K and the ceasefire with NSCN - IM have been extended on several occasions.
In 2003, it was possible for the NSCN - IM leaders Isak Chishi Swu and Thuingaleng Muivah to visit India for the first time in 36 years, something that was hailed as an important breakthrough in the peace process. Negotiations between the NSCN - IM and the government have continued, with dozens of rounds of talks taking place in India, Amsterdam, and Thailand. Despite their frequency, the talks remained deadlocked, as Indian officials were unwilling to meet NSCN - IM's demands for Naga unification. The ceasefire between the government and NSCN - IM was extended several times.
In August 2015, after many years of negotiations, NSCN - IM signed a "framework peace agreement" with the government. While provisions of the agreement have been kept secret by the two sides, provisions such as integration of NSCN - IM forces as local Indian army units as well as an agreement on some kind of cultural/ethnic autonomy did transpire.
