This dyad belongs to the conflict Ukraine: Novorossiya
Summary of conflict Ukraine: Novorossiya
On 16 September 2014, a union between the armed forces of Lugansk Peoples Republic (LPR) and Donetsk Peoples Republic (DPR) was announced as part of the larger Novorossiya project. The new group - the United Armed Forces of Novorossiya - had a new stated incompatibility for a larger territory than Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast combined, referred to as Novorossiya. The Novorossiya project was "put on hold" in May 2015, and on 9 June the DPR and LPR became de facto independent actors again, but with the new incompatibility for the Novorossiya area. As such, they exist in the data as new entities separate from the groups with the same names which were active in 2014, in the territorial conflicts of Donetsk and Lugansk respectively, prior to their merger (see the old DPR and old LPR).
From 2016, the conflict in eastern Ukraine remained in a deadlock. While violence remained at levels far below those in 2014 and 2015, the warring actors continued to exchange fire across the line of contact, causing hundreds of fatalities yearly. The Minsk II agreement from 2015 was the basis for negotiations, even though neither side show any desire to implement its political clauses. A new ceasefire signed in July 2020, made it the calmest year since the start of the conflict. The conflict continued at a slow pace throughout 2021, even whilst tensions were building between Ukraine and Russia, the erstwhile backer of DPR and LPR.
When Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the intrastate conflict over Novorossiya terminated as DPR and LPR were integrated to the Russian forces. Russian officers have been found to act as the highest commanders of the militias, indicating that they are part of the Russian military's command structure.
A United Novorossiya
A few weeks after the Maidan protests, which overthrew the Russia-friendly government of President Viktor Yanukovych on 22 February 2014, Russia invaded Crimea. Furthermore, opponents of Maidan living in Eastern Ukraine proceeded to organize themselves in armed opposition by mid-April 2014. The opposition movements of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR) initiated territorial armed conflicts over Donetsk and Lugansk in Eastern Ukraine. The two separatist movements managed to establish effective control over significant portions of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast respectively, including the administrative capitals of both provinces.
On 16 September 2014, a union - the United Armed Forces of Novorossiya - between the armed forces LPR and DPR was announced as part of the larger Novorossiya project. The United Armed Forces of Novorossiya had a new stated incompatibility for a larger territory than Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast combined, referred to as Novorossiya.
While both DPR and LPR already were under the incidence of a ceasefire signed on 5 September 2014, a new ceasefire was agreed to as part of the Minsk agreements on 19 September 2014. This ceasefire, while reducing the severity of fighting somewhat, did not prevent fighting from continuing at high intensity. Main tactics included heavy shelling by both sides of military positions, including Luhansk and Donetsk towns, producing daily casualties amongst both civilians and fighting forces, as well as extremely violent clashes in strategic areas (i.e. around Donetsk airport, around Stantsya Luhanska railway node, in the Debaltseve corridor, and near Mariupol). The goal of the United Armed Forces of Novorossiya changed from significant expansion to the elimination of the final governmental pockets in their territory, and creating a defensible, functional territory. Further goals were gaining strategic locations used by the government in attacking Novorossiya military positions and in shelling Luhansk and Donetsk towns. These strategic ambitions led to extremely vicious clashes in Debaltseve and near government areas, such as Donetsk Airport - the ferocity of fighting and the stalwartness of the defence led to the portrayal of defending Ukrainian troops as invincible "cyborgs".
Ukrainian military goals included defending their ground and gaining territory in order to protect civilians in Mariupol, the most strategic city in Donetsk Oblast, from shells fired by Novorossiya fighters. Despite the fighting throughout 2014, the frontline held, with minor exceptions.
By early January 2015, the ceasefire completely collapsed; even more intense fighting began over the airport and in the important communications node of Debaltseve. Shelling further intensified. At the same time, negotiations over a new cease-fire and peace plan began in Minsk.
By 11 February 2015, a draft form of an agreement was reached, which included a full withdrawal of heavy equipment from the front-line, return of control over the state border to Ukraine, a path to self-governance of the rebel areas. However, Novorossiya troops stalled a final decision on the draft until their army captured two strategic points - the ruins of Donetsk airport and the Debaltseve communication hub linking Luhansk and Donetsk. Upon these strategic achievements, both parties agreed to the ceasefire terms, which mostly held throughout the remainder of the year, reducing violence significantly.
Fatality levels decreased from more than 10-20 per day in January and February 2015 to less than one in the aftermath of the ceasefire. Further, while shelling and local fighting for strategic points along the ceasefire lines continued, their overall intensity was significantly reduced. Similarly, while shelling did continue, it manifested itself as isolated events rather than a generalized and continuous practice, as before. In effect, the largest encounters were on punctual demarcations of the ceasefire/demilitarized zone, in places such as Marinka or Shyrokyne. These clashes led to further talks in August and September 2015, resulting in further de-escalation. As such, by December 2015, spells of over a week without any fatalities on either side were reported.
Novorossiya "Put On Hold" - DPR and LPR emerges as new actors
In late May 2015, high-level officials from the DPR indicate that the development of the Novorossiya project as an independent country is "put on hold" as an effect of the Minsk II agreement which determined a different path for the future self-determination of the Donbass region. Further, Novorossiya as a larger confederation, including places like Kharkiv and Odessa, was deemed a failure, as these regions could not break-away on their own from Ukraine. Following this, the DPR and LPR formally became independent actors, whilst retaining the new incompatibility for the Novorossiya area, on 9 June. However, except for the (decorative) confederate parliament, organisations established prior to the were immediately abolished. Military coordination, as well as joint organizations established prior to the freeze (such as integrated battalions) continued to exist. Both the DPR and LPR political leadership continued to assert the "liberated" territory controlled by the "army" as a joint entity (referred to as Donbass) in their official statements.
However, from 9 June the United Armed Forces of Novorossiya is considered defunct, with DPR and LPR having splintered from it. Worth noting, however, is that the DPR and LPR that left the United Armed Forces of Novorossiya shares the new incompatibility for the Novorossiya area, and therefore exist in the data as new entities separate from the groups with the same names which were active in 2014, in the territorial conflicts of Donetsk and Lugansk respectively, prior to their merger (see the old DPR and old LPR).
Post-Minsk: Ceasefires signed, ceasefires breached
Shelling and low-intensity clashes continued after the Minsk II agreement in February 2015, and the parties remained locked in conflict. While several more ceasefires were signed since 2015, none had a significant effect on the intensity of fighting. While violence has remained at levels far below those in 2014 and 2015, the warring actors continued to exchange fire across the line of contact, causing hundreds of fatalities yearly. In 2018, the number of fatalities dropped to its lowest level since the start of the conflict, and remained at similarly low levels in 2019. In March 2018, the government of Ukrainian replaced its “Anti-Terrorist Operation” (ATO) in the east with the “Joint Forces Operation” (JFO), shifting command and control of the operation from the Ukrainian State Security Service (SSU) to the military.
Between June and December 2019 the parties agreed to withdraw their forces from some of the most hotly contested areas; from Stanytsia Luhanska railway node, Zolote and Petrivske. However, the violence in 2019 remained at roughly the same level as it was in 2018, and implementation was slow or non-existent as new bouts of violence erupted during the first half of 2020. On 23 July 2020 a new ceasefire was signed, however, which significantly reduced the violence for the remainder of the year. Sporadic shelling continued to claim lives, but at a much slower pace than during the earlier part of the year, making 2020 the calmest year on record since the start of the conflict in 2014.
Violence picked up slightly in 2021, compared to the end of 2020, but continued throughout the year at a relatively slow pace. Frustration with the lack of progress with implementing the Minsk II peace settlement (according to Moscow’s interpretation of the terms) was repeatedly voiced by Russia, along with warnings of the consequences of a supposedly upcoming Ukrainian offensive to crush the break-away republics. This alleged planned violation of the ceasefire agreement by Ukraine was one of the motivations provided by Russia for its military build-up during the year, in preparation for its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
When Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the intrastate conflict over Novorossiya terminated as DPR and LPR were integrated to the Russian forces. Russian officers have been found to act as the highest commanders of the militias, indicating that they are part of the Russian military's command structure.
