This dyad belongs to the conflict Russia: Islamic State
Summary of conflict Russia: Islamic State
From 2015 forward large parts of the Caucasus Emirate swore allegiance to the Islamic State instead. The situation changed little on the ground, and as of 2020 local IS affiliates continued to wage a low intensity insurgency against Russian security forces, mainly in the Caucasus region. The groups activities decreased further between 2021 and 2023, with only a handful of attacks recorded during the period. IS saw a resurgence of activity in 2024, starting with the March Crocus City Hall attack in Krasnogorsk, conducted by the Khorasan province of IS. Two factors led to the formation of the Islamic State (IS) in the Caucasus - first, the severe weakening of the Caucasus Emirate through the elimination of much of its leadership between 2013 and 2014; second, external influences brought by fighters returning to the Caucasus from Syria and Iraq. Returning fighters promoted the strength of IS as opposed to the traditional allies of the Caucasus Emirate such as Jabhat Al Nusra.
Seeing the unraveling of the existing networks of power and allegiance that composed the Caucasus Emirate, a number of local leaders of the insurgency pledged allegiance to the Islamic State. One of the first such pledges was that of Abu Muhammad, the "emir" of Dagestan, previously one of the most powerful cells of the Caucasus Emirate. His pledge on 19 December 2014 led to a cascade of pledges by other local leaders and by May 2015, a majority of the fighters of the Caucasus Emirate had defected and pledged allegiance to IS.
Official acceptance of the pledges came on 21 June 2016, when the IS leader al-Baghdadi inaugurated the Caucasus Province of the Islamic State through a video. However, IS did not supply the Caucasus province with any resources beyond those already available locally. Thus, the insurgency continued on similar low levels as before, with the Russian Government continuing to have an upper hand. The Russian FSB conducted several operations to flush out suspected IS militants in the region, but also in other parts of Russia before the 2018 FIFA World Cup, severely weakening the group. Between 2015 and 2020, IS did not stage any major operations in the Caucasus; most armed activities limited themselves to small skirmishes with security forces. After 2020, the groups activities were limited to criminality and attacks by lone-wolves or small cells. The largest IS attack carried out in Russia was the 22 March 2024 Crocus City Hall attack in Krasnogorsk, outside of Moscow, which killed 145 people going to a concert. The attack was conducted by the Khorasan province of IS, based in Afghanistan, and not by the domestic Caucasus province. Following the attack, IS showed renewed activity and strength in the Caucasus, with a large coordinated attack on law enforcement, churches and synagogues being conducted in Dagestan in June 2024.
