This dyad belongs to the conflict Tajikistan: Government
Summary of conflict Tajikistan: Government
When Tajikistan became independent in 1991, communist leaders continued to exert control over the country. Unified in their opposition, democratic and Islamist parties challenged the communist rule. The opposition bloc later formalized itself under the name of UTO (United Tajik Opposition). UTO fought against the government until 1998 in spite of the several peace agreements signed during the period. UTO also controlled the government of Tajikistan for a short period in 1992, before another rebel coalition, PFT (People’s Front of Tajikistan) took power.
Several influential UTO field commanders rejected the power sharing agreement between UTO and the government signed in 1997 and refuse to lay down their arms. First, in 1997, forces loyal to Colonel Makhmud Khudoberdiyev attacked government forces. The clashes continued in 1998. In 2000, another dissatisfied former UTO field commander, Mullo Abdullo, engaged government forces for the same reason.
Another dissatisfied commander was Juma Namangani. Originally an Uzbek commander of UTO, he rejected the peace agreement and formed the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). The IMU eventually turned its attention to Uzbekistan and sought to overthrow Uzbek President Islam Karimov. Although IMU engaged Tajik government forces as early as 2006, the conflict only escalated in 2010 when Tajik security forces launched large-scale military campaign in order to dislodge IMU from their strongholds in Tajikistan. 2010 also marked the return of Mullo Abdullo. His forces ambushed a military convoy in September, killing at least 25 Tajik security forces. Mullo Abdullo was later killed in a special operation in 2011.
Conflict in Tajikistan 1992-2000
Unlike other former Soviet republics, independence was not particularly embraced in Tajikistan. In fact, Tajiks voted against independence just six months before the eventual declaration on September 9, 1991. Groups that under Soviet rule had felt disadvantaged and excluded by the communist regime, participated in street protests in Tajikistan's capital, Dushanbe, against the communist-backed leadership of the newly independent state. Rakhmon Nabiyev, who led the Tajik branch of the Communist Party (CPT), was forced to resign on 2 October, but seized power with 58 per cent of the votes in the elections that followed in November.
The opposition did not acknowledge the election result and rallies organised by IRP (Islamic Renaissance Party), the Democratic Party and the Rastokhez (Renaissance) movement, who later together came to be known as UTO (United Tajik Opposition), was held repeatedly during the spring of 1992 in Tajikistan's capital, Dushanbe. The situation intensified during the first week of May when armed skirmishes took place between the Tajik government and its opponents. Opposition militia took control over large parts of the city, including the Presidential Palace and the television station, and on 10 May the opposition gathered outside the KGB headquarters where President Nabiyev had taken refuge. KGB troops loyal to Nabiyev fired at the demonstrators from the building, causing up to 20 deaths. Simultaneously, in the same building, the government and representatives of some of the opposition groups held negotiations, which resulted in President Nabiyevs agreement to form a coalition government in which the opposition parties were included.
Following the agreement, fighting decreased in Dushanbe, but a non-state conflict between the opposition and a pro-communist alliance, PFT (People’s Front of Tajikistan), broke out in the southern parts of the country, particularly in the Qurghonteppa area. Talks between the government and the opposition resulted in a ceasefire agreement, signed on 27 July 1992, which committed the signatories to exchange hostages, to lift roadblocks, to disband armed formations and to hand over illegal weapons. President Nabiyev was not able to implement the agreement and restore stability in the country and after a number of failed attempts, UTO finally managed to force Nabiyev to resign from power on 7 September. However, the new leadership also failed to prevent an escalation of violence, and Mahmadruzi Iskandarov and his government resigned two months later, after heavy clashes between the UTO-controlled government of Tajikistan and PFT. After these politically turbulent months the pro-communists regained power and Emomali Rahmon (Imomali Rakhmonov), who remained in power throughout the whole course of the conflict, became President of Tajikistan.
The government under Rahmon was as unsuccessful as their predecessors in halting the violence despite help from peacekeeping troops sent by CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States). Instead, the conflict intensified during 1993 and there were no signs of progress or reconciliation between the conflict parties. The conflict over government remained active through 1998, exceeding the threshold for war two more times in 1993 and 1996. Most of the fatalities from this time resulted from fighting between the Tajik government and UTO, geographically encompassing most of the country except for its north. At the end of 1996, negotiations under the auspices of the CIS resulted in a ceasefire agreement. Fighting diminished in 1997 and after several rounds of negotiations under the auspices of the UN, a peace agreement, "The Moscow declaration", was signed on 27 June 1997. The agreement stipulated, among other things that 30% of all parliamentary seats should go to UTO and that part of the UTO troops was to be integrated into the Tajik army.
However, the peace remained fragile. UTO continued to attack soldiers and policemen in the region around the capital Dushanbe. Moreover, not all factions belonging to UTO agreed to the terms of the peace accord. Colonel Makhmud Khudoberdiyev, who previously lent support to the government, rejected the power-sharing agreement between the UTO and the government and started fighting government forces in 1997. Despite making initial gains and holding the city of Khujand, as well as the Dushanbe airport for some time, the forces of Khudoberdiev had been defeated by 1999. Government forces—which now included UTO forces following force integration per the peace agreement—claimed victory, and 1999 would mark the first year since 1992 with no active conflict in Tajikistan.
In a similar vein, Mullo Abdullo, once a well-known field commander of UTO, clashed with the government forces in September 2000. The government forces inflicted heavy casualties on the rebel forces, and as a result the conflict became inactive for the next decade. In August 2010, a military convoy was ambushed, resulting in 25 deaths. Mullo Abdullo claimed responsibility for the attack, but he was killed during a military operation later that year.
Except for CIS peacekeeping troops, Russia had had a number of border troops in Tajikistan since the beginning of the conflict. Some claim that the Russian border troops were part of the peacekeepers whereas others claim they were not. The question of Russia's role in the conflict is hence a tricky one. The facts are that Russia had troops on Tajik territory and that Russia had a clear interest in the outcome of the conflict, and therefore had an interest in supporting the Tajik government. Russia and Tajikistan had also signed a friendship treaty, after which President Yelstin stated Russia's commitment "to assist peacekeeping efforts on the part of the leadership of the Republic of Tajikistan". However, Russia's actual interference with the conflict on the side of the Tajik Government has not been verified and the possibility that Russian troops were there for a peacekeeping purpose only cannot be excluded. This leaves Russia's true involvement in the conflict an unsolved question.
IMU attacks Tajikistan in 2010
In Tajikistan, the originally Uzbek rebel group IMU (Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan) escalated attacks in 2010. When the group was formed in the late 1990's, it initially focused its attention on removing the Uzbek government. However, already in this early phase, IMU was present in Tajikistan, where it had some of its rear bases. After heavy government pressure, the group was forced to retreat to its bases in Afghanistan in October 2000, after which the IMU fighters fought alongside the Taliban.
In the wake of the US and UK invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, remnants of the group moved to Pakistan’s tribal areas. Around this time, IMU expanded its goals, announcing that it was now fighting for the creation of an Islamic Caliphate in Central Asia (the area called Maverannahr, which includes the territory between the rivers Amu Darya and Syr Darya in present-day Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and southwest Kazakhstan). In line with this new goal, IMU regionalized its attacks. Some reports state that IMU changed its name to Islamic Movement of Turkestan and that they fought for the area called Turkestan including Central Asia and China’s Xinjiang region. However, this has not been confirmed by the IMU leadership. In later interviews with IMU leader Yuldashev, published online, he claimed that IMU now wants to establish an Islamic Caliphate in the entire world.
Since 2001, most cells of IMU were based in Pakistan (mainly in South Waziristan), including the leader Yuldashev. They also had some bases in the northern parts of Afghanistan and have fought together with the Taleban and al-Qaida there.
Although the leadership has not been based in Uzbekistan or Tajikistan since 2000, small cells of IMU fighters have stayed in the Fergana Valley and have performed attacks in the border areas between Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Moreover, Tajik groups who fought against the Tajik government as part of UTO developed close ties to IMU. One example is commander Mullo Abdullo who, together with his fighters, crossed into Tajikistan’s Rasht Valley from Afghanistan in 2009. Rasht Valley was the main area of fighting between IMU forces in Tajikistan and the government in 2010.
After 2010, IMU shifted its efforts to Pakistan and Afghanistan, for many years fighting under the Afghan Taleban. In 2015, most IMU fighters joined the newly announced Islamic State – Khorasan Province.
