This dyad belongs to the conflict Rwanda: Government
Summary of conflict Rwanda: Government
The Rwandan conflict has been highly internationalized, and conflicts in the neighboring region have had a great effect on one another. The population in Rwanda is made up of Hutus and Tutsis, with Tutsi being the minority. In October 1990, Tutsi rebels launched an armed struggle against the Hutu government which culminated in the 1994 genocide and change of government. After a Tutsi victory, the new government now fought its predecessors who then had regrouped in neighboring Zaire (Democratic Republic of Congo).
In 2025, the Government of Rwanda continued to fight the rebel group FDLR-FOCA (Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda, Democratic Liberation Forces of Rwanda). The conflict over governmental power, taking place on Congolese soil, increased somewhat in intensity compared to previous year, although did not reach the same level as in 2023. Fighting mostly occurred in the first half of the year. In April 2025, Rwandan soldiers clashed with FDLR fighters in Goma town on Congolese territory, resulting in over 50 fatalities. In July, the Rwandan military reportedly backed AFC in a military campaign against FDLR in Rutshuru territory, North Kivu province of DR Congo.
Background to the conflict
The population in Rwanda is made up of Hutus and Tutsis, with Hutus outnumbering the Tutsis by at least four to one. During the colonial period, the German and later Belgian rulers exacerbated divisions between the two groups by favoring the Tutsis. In effect, they established a governing class of Tutsis and justified this by relying on racist ideologies claiming that Tutsis were "sub-Aryan," rather than Bantu like the Hutus, and thus superior.
However, on the eve of independence, Belgium shifted policy and instead supported the main Hutu political party, which subsequently came to power once the country gained independence in 1962. Pogroms against Tutsis took place on a regular basis after this, and thousands fled the country, ending up in Ugandan refugee camps. In these camps, extremism flourished, and an armed opposition organization was formed.
On 1 October 1990, the FPR (Front patriotique rwandais, Rwandan Patriotic Front) launched its armed struggle, invading the country from the north.
The armed conflict: 1990–1994
The armed conflict in Rwanda can be divided into two phases: 1990–1994 and 1997–2002. In the first phase, the government was fought solely by the Tutsi rebel force FPR. The rebel group had been established in 1988, and its key leaders had previously been in the Ugandan National Resistance Army (NRA) fighting alongside Museveni when he seized power in Uganda in 1986.
The group demanded democracy and the right for refugees from previous violence to return to Rwanda. Citing overpopulation, Rwanda had continuously denied the latter request, fueling resentment among the refugee community. From 1990 to 1992, the government side was represented by President Habyarimana and the Hutu party Mouvement révolutionnaire nationale pour le dévelopement (MRND), the sole legal party in Rwanda since 1975. Real power lay not with the formal political structures, however, but rather with the president himself, the Presidential guard and a small grouping of people close to him, called the akazu (little house). Furthermore, apart from controlling the national armed forces, the Forces armees Rwandais (FAR), the MRND elite, and the akazu also controlled the youth wing of MRND, the Interahamwé, which received military training towards the end of Habyarimana's reign.
From 1992 and onwards, external pressure forced Habyarimana to move towards democracy, and in the spring of 1992, a token multiparty government was formed. As further pressure mounted, a second coalition was formed, this time with more significant representation from newly formed opposition parties. However, even after this change, power largely resided in the group closest to the president. In April 1994, unknown assassins shot down President Habyarimana's plane over Kigali. The Akazu and a small group of other Hutu extremists subsequently seized power and made up the government side in the conflict during the last months of this phase.
The armed conflict: 1997–2002
During the second phase of the conflict, the roles were reversed, as FPR had succeeded in seizing power in mid-1994 and now made up the government side in the conflict.
Officially the country was headed by a multiparty government, but most analysts agree that real power resided in FPR and that non-FPR cabinet ministers possessed no real authority. After FPR's defeat of the Hutu government in 1994, the ex-FAR, i.e. the former Rwandan Hutu army, and the Interahamwé militia together with more than one million Hutu refugees fled to Zaire where the rebels regrouped in the refugee camps.
In the camps, the Hutu opposition started to make up plans on how to regain power in Rwanda. In June 1996, the Party for the Liberation of Rwanda (PALIR) appeared, and in March 1997, they stated their goal to overthrow the regime. The armed wing of PALIR was known as Liberation Army of Rwanda (ALiR).
Most ALiR fighters were new recruits from the refugee camps, but the organization also included elements from the Interahamwé and ex-FAR. In 1998, ALiR consisted of two parts: ALiR I and ALiR II. ALiR I was mainly based in the North Kivu but also the South Kivu and Maniema Provinces. ALiR II fought alongside the government army in conflict in DR Congo. They were considered younger and were not thought to have participated in the 1994 genocide. After contacts with exiled politicians, ALiR II in May 2000 formed a politico-military organization: Democratic Liberation Forces of Rwanda (FDLR). On 30 September 2000 ALiR I formally dissolved into FDLR and the armed group accepted the political leadership of FDLR.
The Rwandan conflict in a regional context
Events in Rwanda from 1990 onward have had great influence on the Central African region, and – likewise – the dynamics of the regional conflict have affected the Rwandan internal conflict. In the early years of the conflict, the former trend was more prevalent, as many cite the events in Rwanda as the origin of the whole Great Lakes Crisis. Thus, throughout the conflict, there has been a high degree of foreign involvement on both sides. Neighboring Zaire was involved in the conflict already in the early phase of the conflict, as it supported Habyarimana's government with some 500 elite paratroopers as part of a military cooperation agreement. Since 1975, also France had a military cooperation agreement with Rwanda, and relations between the presidents of the respective countries were close. Thus, when FPR launched its invasion, president Habyarimana invoked the agreement, and France subsequently sent troops in aid of the government.
As of yet, the extent of these troops' involvement in the actual fighting has not been determined. Whereas some reports indicate direct military involvement, France has continuously denied all such claims. However, the French military was openly involved in the operation of the army: French troops were deployed operating checkpoints and also interrogated military prisoners, provided military intelligence, and trained the Presidential guard as well as other troops. Besides, France was also Rwanda's main arms provider. Apart from this, the government also received logistic help from Belgium and South Africa.
The rebels, for their part, received invaluable help from neighboring Uganda. After the invasion, Uganda 's president Museveni immediately denied both having any beforehand knowledge of the offensive and supporting the rebels, a claim which he upheld throughout this first phase of the conflict. However, there is strong evidence that Uganda allowed the rebels to use its territory as a rear base, where they were able to regroup as well as recruit among the refugees in the border area.
In the second phase of the conflict, it becomes increasingly difficult to analyze and understand the conflict separated from the regional context within which it took place. The outbreak of fighting in DR Congo (Zaire) in 1996 was by many seen as a direct continuation of the Rwandan conflict, as the new FPR government aided the Congolese rebel organization AFDL in invading the country. This, in turn, was done partly to remove the Hutu militias from the refugee camps along the border.
During this second phase, which to a large extent has taken place on Congolese territory, Ugandan and Burundian troops have been fighting for and with the Rwandan army against Hutu extremists. It is important to keep in mind, however, that these alliances often have been of a tactical nature. In line with the regional logic of the conflict, ALiR has also fought together with a number of outside actors, allying with Burundian Hutu groups CNDD-FDD and PALIPEHUTU-FNL, as well as with the Congolese Mayi-Mayi militia. Apart from this direct military cooperation, invaluable support has also been given by Laurent Kabila's regime in DR Congo, which allowed the movement to maintain bases on its territory. The DR Congo also, until 2001, assisted ALiR with airdrops of equipment and ammunition. With the death of Laurent Kabila and the rise to power of his son Joseph Kabila, this support has decreased significantly, although some Congolese army officials continued to support the group.
After the end of the regional war in the DR Congo (Zaire), the Rwandan army also lost its rear base inside this neighboring state, and the number of deaths in the conflict dropped below 25 in 2003. In 2009 a new regional alliance was built as Rwanda signed an agreement with the government of DR. Congo, launching the joint operation Umoja Wetu targeting the FDLR and a Congolese rebel group previously supported by Rwanda. DR Congo (Zaire) was now seen as a Secondary Warring Party supporting the Rwandan side in the conflict. Their fight against FDLR continued even after the Rwandan withdrawal in late February 2009 when the main part of Rwandan forces left DR Congo (Zaire). The country kept a small group of Special Forces that continued to work with Congolese armed forces to track down FDLR leaders. This alliance continued 2010–2012 when the regional context once more changed dramatically. A new conflict broke out on Congolese territory, and Rwanda was once more accused of supporting the opposition side. Thereby the fragile alliance between Rwanda and DR Congo (Zaire) broke down. Rwanda was forced to withdraw their Special Forces from its neighbor on 30 August 2012. On 23 September 2015, Rwanda and DR Congo (Zaire) launched a fresh round of security talks to start "a new chapter" in their bilateral relations. The day after, they had agreed to urgently move to eradicate FDLR, which had been under attack from the Congolese army, FARDC. DR Congo (Zaire) was again seen as a secondary warring party in the conflict between Rwanda and FDLR. Clashes between the Congolese government and FDLR in the North Kivu Province of DR Congo (Zaire) activated the conflict again in 2016.
Conflict dynamics
During the first phase of the conflict (1990–1994), two parallel processes of violence were prevalent. Apart from the fighting between the FPR and the government troops, events in both the civil war and in the negotiations were mirrored by large-scale violence against civilian Tutsis in government-held areas. FPR initially advanced on the capital, seizing control over large areas in the northern prefectures of Ruhengeri and Buyumba. Massacres were perpetrated on Hutus, which in turn led to a mass exodus of Hutus to government-held territory. In October 1990, the military cooperation agreement with France was invoked, and French troops entered the conflict. This eventually led to a stalemate, with both parties equally unable to secure a military victory. A number of ceasefires were agreed upon but continuously violated.
Over time, it became increasingly clear that the military initiative had passed to the rebels, and after FPR 's offensive in February 1993, the only thing that stopped the movement from seizing power was the French troop presence. When a peace agreement was signed in August 1993, FPR stopped its offensive. Even though the civil war was thus terminated for the time being, the other process of violence, i.e., the violence against civilian Tutsis as well as against moderate Hutus, had just started gaining momentum. Hutu extremists, excluded from the peace agreement, were stepping up their hate propaganda, and implementation of the agreement proved next to impossible. As the ethnic climate grew increasingly tense, the anti-Tutsi violence escalated, and the Interahamwé went on repeated rampages in Kigali, killing dozens of Tutsis. This process culminated with the launching of the genocide in April 1994, which, in turn, restarted the civil war.
FPR once more launched an offensive, with the intent of stopping the killing. On 19 July 1994 the movement managed to seize Kigali and the former government, army (ex-FAR) and militias, together with around two million Hutus, fled to neighboring Tanzania, Burundi and DR Congo (Zaire), gathering in huge refugee camps along the border. During the roughly three and a half months, the genocide was carried out, around one million Tutsis and Hutu-moderates were killed.
The inactive year of the conflict, 1995, was by no means peaceful, but rather served to set the stage for the next phase of organized fighting. The Rwandan invasion of the DR Congo (Zaire) in 1996 succeeded in temporarily scattering the Hutu militants and removing them from refugee camps along the border, but after Mobutu had been ousted in DR Congo (Zaire) the opposition movement regrouped and began carrying out raids into Rwanda from bases in the DR Congo (Zaire). However, the government relatively soon managed to crush this attempt to move the conflict back into Rwanda.
Instead, the Rwandan army invaded DR Congo (Zaire) once more, pushing the rebels back from the border area. For four years, Rwandan troops occupied eastern DR Congo (Zaire), effectively keeping the fighting away from Rwandan territory. In May 2001, ALiR launched a major offensive, attempting to gain a hold in Rwanda. The subsequent crushing of the attempt by the government forces weakened the rebel movement significantly. Remaining parts of ALiR reorganized themselves under FDLR's banner.
After Rwanda withdrew their forces from DR Congo (Zaire), as part of a peace agreement within that conflict context, the fighting de-escalated as no significant FDLR attacks or movements took place near the Rwandan border. In 2002 fighting occurred between FDLR and the Rwandan army, but then inside Burundi. In April 2004, FDLR attacked a village in northeastern Rwanda. Rwanda retaliated the attack and made incursions both into Burundi and DR Congo (Zaire). In 2009 the conflict escalated once again as Rwanda and DR Congo (Zaire) launched joint operations against FDLR, these operations continued 2010–2012 but then with less involvement from Rwanda which was only allowed to deploy a small group of Special Forces.
The context changed dramatically in 2012 as a new conflict broke out on Congolese territory, and Rwanda was accused of supporting the opposition side. Thereby the fragile relationship between Rwanda and DR Congo (Zaire) broke down once again. Rwanda was forced to withdraw their Special Forces from its neighbor on 30 August 2012. After this date, no real clashes have been reported between Rwanda and FDLR. The Congolese government continued to battle the group in operations, trying to dismantle them.
Peace efforts – negotiations and agreements
Negotiations were undertaken early in the conflict. Zairian President Mobutu and Tanzanian officials acted as mediators, and the OAU came with several peace initiatives.
In 1993, the Arusha Accords peace agreement was concluded between FPR and the government, providing for a new transitional government open for the FPR. It was to be headed by a Prime Minister who would be mutually approved by the parties. Multiparty general elections were to take place after a 22-month period. The Arusha agreement also stipulated the formation of a national army open to the FPR. Finally, the agreement allowed for repatriation of all Rwandan refugees and the return of internally displaced persons to their homes.
However, the implementation of the agreement was continuously postponed despite the UN presence, and in the end, it could not prevent the genocide from taking place. During the second phase of the conflict, the Rwandan government continuously rejected the armed oppositions' demands for negotiations, accusing its leadership of war crimes and of genocide. Even if the question of the insecure border situation was touched upon in negotiations in the DR Congo (Zaire) conflict, this was never the focus of these talks and the Hutu opposition militias did not take part in the proceedings.
In 2002, different Rwandan exile movements called for an Inter-Rwandan-Dialogue, but to no avail. However, due to the regionalized character of the conflict, progress in negotiations with neighboring DR Congo (Zaire) influenced the conflict. On 30 July, Congolese president Kabila and his Rwandan counterpart Kagame signed a peace agreement under which DR Congo (Zaire) promised to disarm and arrest thousands of Hutu rebels and send them to Rwanda. In return, the Rwandan government agreed to withdraw 30 000 of its troops from eastern DR Congo (Zaire). By late 2002, Rwanda had abided by the agreement and withdrawn their troops from Congolese territory, while Kabila's government started to disarm and repatriate Hutu rebels. In May 2003, a referendum on a new constitution was held in Rwanda, and in November, there were general elections. The FDLR military commander Paul Rwarakabije was repatriated to Rwanda in November 2003.
In March 2005, negotiations were held between the government of DR Congo (Zaire) and FDLR as an effort to start a dialogue on the conflict. The talks were sponsored by the Community of Sant'Egidio. The negotiations were followed by the Rome declaration on the part of FDLR, promising a ceasefire and the start of disarmament. In the same declaration, the FDLR condemned the Rwandan genocide. No real progress in the disarmament process was made after the ceasefire, and Rwanda continued to refuse to enter a dialogue with FDLR.
In 2011 DR Congo (Zaire) negotiated a new preliminary ceasefire agreement with FDLR. Initial contacts were taken in early 2011, and talks led to a preliminary agreement on 17 March. The two FDLR leaders General Gaston Rumuli Iyamuremye and Lieutenant General Sylvestre Mudacumura opposed the agreement, and the proposal was discarded by the organization in a vote on 29 June, and the peace efforts again broke down.
In 2019 and 2020, DR Congo (Zaire) was a secondary warring party in the conflict between the Rwandan government and FDLR. New actors in the Rwandan conflict over government power were also involved, namely FDLR-RUD and CNRD. As the secondary warring party, FARDC (Forces armées de la république démocratique du Congo, The Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo) clashed with the rebel groups in both North and South Kivu provinces of DR Congo. 2019 was also the year with the highest number of fatalities since 2010 in this conflict.
