This dyad belongs to the conflict South Sudan: Government
Summary of conflict South Sudan: Government
After decades of war between rebels based in what was formerly southern Sudan and the Sudanese government in Khartoum, South Sudan became independent on 9 July 2011 as a result of a referendum. From its inception, however, the new regime in Juba faced challenges as two Sudan-supported rebel groups engaged South Sudan in an intrastate conflict: SSDM/A and SSLM/A. By December 2013 high-intensity fighting between different factions of the presidential guard, started in Juba. The faction loyal to former vice-president Riek Machar formed the rebel group SPLM/A - IO (SPLM/A in Opposition) which quickly became involved in extensive fighting against the government forces, affecting large parts of the country leading to a vast humanitarian crisis in the following years. Several years of negotiations between the Government of South Sudan and SPLM/A - IO finally led to the formation of a unity government on 22 February 2020. Salva Kiir remained president, and Riek Machar, leader of SPLM/A - IO was appointed first vice president, four additional vice presidents were appointed representing different political factions in the country.
The conflict over government between the Government of South Sudan and SPLM/A-IO resumed in 2025 for the first time since Riek Machar, the leader of SPLM/A-IO, becoming the First Vice President within the transitional government. The deterioration accelerated in early March following large-scale attacks in Nasir country in Upper Nile state, led by the White Army, an independent Nuer self-defense militia that has at times been loosely aligned with SPLM/A-IO but operates autonomously. Following the attacks, President Salva Kiir arrested Riek Machar along with several senior SPLM/A-IO political and military officials, accusing them of backing the rebellion. SPLM/A-IO rejected the accusations, denied responsibility for the Nasir violence, and declared the peace agreement effectively collapsed. Throughout the remainder of 2025, fighting between government forces and SPLM/A-IO intensified across Upper Nile, Jonglei, and parts of Equatoria, with fatalities reaching over 280.
Decades of war leading to independence
Fighting between the Government of Sudan and southern-based rebels has a decades-long history. Between 1963 and 1972, the government in Khartoum fought the secessionist rebel group Anya Nya, and later during 1983–2005, the government fought SPLM/A (Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement/Army) in a conflict over government power. In 2005, warfare between the regime and rebels in the south stopped as a result of the Comprehensive Ceasefire Agreement (CPA) signed 9 January that year (for more information, see Sudan country page).
One important stipulation of the CPA was the holding of a referendum on the future status of the territory of South Sudan. The referendum was to be held six years after the signing of the agreement, and one of the options would be the independence of South Sudan. If the turnout would favor independence, South Sudan would gain its sovereignty six months later.
The referendum was held on 9 January 2011, and an overwhelming majority (almost 99%), voted in favor of independence. Consequently, on 9 July 2011 the new country, the Republic of South Sudan was born.
Conflictual beginning (2011–2012)
From its very birth South Sudan was involved in intrastate conflict as the new regime in Juba was challenged by the two rebel groups SSDM/A (South Sudan Democratic Movement/Army) and SSLM/A (South Sudan Liberation Movement/Army). These groups were supported by the government in Sudan. Fighting started about one month after the country’s independence and continued throughout the year.
The fighting with SSDM/A mainly took place in Jonglei state, but some clashes were also located in the neighboring Upper Nile state. On 19 December 2011, SSDM/A leader George Athor was killed in an attack in Central Equatoria state. The SSDM/A claimed that Uganda bore the responsibility for this – accusations that were denied by both Uganda and South Sudan.
The SSDM/A and the Government of South Sudan held negotiations and signed a peace agreement in February 2012. This ended the fighting in this dyad.
The SSLM/A fought the Government of South Sudan during 2011 and 2012. SSLM/A leader Peter Gadet joined the Government in 2011, but other parts of the SSLM/A continued their rebellion. In late April 2013, President Salva Kiir announced a presidential pardon to all rebels active in South Sudan. The leaders of SSLM/A accepted this amnesty and thereby ended their rebellion. The SSLM/A troops became integrated into the National Army. No clashes were reported between the group and the National Army.
New actors and increased intensity of violence (2013–2014)
Despite the violence between the government and SSDM/A (South Sudan Democratic Movement/ Army) and SSLM/A (South Sudan Liberation Movement/Army) subsiding, the fighting did not end. On the contrary, the fighting over governmental power saw two new groups entering the stage. These were the SSDM/A – Cobra faction and SPLM/A in Opposition (SPLM/A - IO).
The SSDM/A – Cobra faction, led by David Yauyau fought in Jonglei state, fighting reaping between 70 and 130 fatalities. A cease-fire was agreed upon in early January 2014, and no further fighting took place between the government and SSDM/A - Cobra faction. Negotiations continued and a final peace agreement was signed on 9 May 2014, stipulating the establishment of a territorial administration in Jonglei called the Greater Pibor Administrative Area.
Violence of higher intensity was recorded in the fighting between the Government of South Sudan and the second rebel group, the SPLM/A - IO. This conflict started in mid-December 2013 with a battle between different factions within the Presidential guard in the capital Juba. One of the factions was loyal to the sitting president, Salva Kiir, and the other faction was loyal to the former vice-president Riek Machar, who had been ousted from the government in July 2013.
The fighting started in Juba but quickly spread to other areas. Battles were particularly fierce in Bor, Malakal, and Bentiu, three strategically important towns. According to the South Sudanese government, the fighting started after a coup attempt. However, this claim was denied by the rebels, and international experts tended to support this denial.
There was an ethnic dimension to the fighting, such that Salva Kiir belonged to South Sudan's largest ethnic group, Dinka, whereas Riek Machar was from the second largest group, Nuer. However, seeing the violence from a purely ethnic perspective disregards the high complexity of ethnicity in this context, and some rebels fighting against Kiir were Dinka, whereas some rebels fighting within government ranks were Nuer. With this in mind, it should be said that the aspiration of these two leaders to rule the country also led to attacks between Nuer and Dinka.
Although the fighting started as late as mid-December, over 800 people were killed before 2013 ended. The situation at this time was very chaotic with several different types of violence going on simultaneously. For that reason, it is possible that the number of people killed was even higher. Unfortunately, there have been great uncertainties regarding the number of deaths throughout the conflict in South Sudan, the widespread dire security situation in the country resulted in a lack of body counts and few possibilities to verify the information from the start. The UCDP fatality estimate should, therefore, be interpreted as a conservative baseline of the number of deaths.
The conflict between the South Sudanese government and SPLM/A - IO, loyal to Riek Machar, continued in 2014 and clashes took place in nearly all regions of the country. The fighting continued to be especially intense in the key oil cities Malakal, Bor, and Bentiu, which changed hands multiple times during the year. Negotiations between the two parties took place throughout the entire year, in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa, and was led by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). The talks were interrupted and restarted on several occasions. Despite that several ceasefires and peace agreements were signed, the efforts were not successful in bringing a political solution to the conflict.
Troubled negotiations and continued fighting (2015–2017)
In 2015, negotiations were held in two main tracks, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development led negotiations in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, and an Intra-SPLM dialogue in Arusha, Tanzania. In addition to these two negotiation processes, several smaller initiatives were taken. One of them took place in Khartoum, Sudan, under the leadership of the Chinese Foreign Minister in January. In August 2015, negotiations led by IGAD resulted in a comprehensive peace agreement between the Government of South Sudan and SPLM/A - IO. The levels of violence subsequently dropped in South Sudan in 2015, but neither this nor the agreement lasted after clashes broke out in Juba in July 2016, killing hundreds. As violence spread to the Greater Equatoria region of the country, negotiations continued throughout 2016 and 2017. By the end of 2017, the IGAD led talks resulted in a ceasefire being declared, but further progress failed as the negotiations stalled.
Revitalizing an Agreement (2018)
In 2018, freshly-elected Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed instigated a new bilateral negotiation process between the Government of South Sudan and SPLM/A - IO. When his efforts failed to gain meaningful ground, he handed over the process to Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir. With the support of Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni, the two leaders brokered a revitalized peace agreement called the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS), which the Government of South Sudan and SPLM/A - IO signed 12 September with IGAD and the African Union as guarantors. However, skepticism remained between the parties as the partial peace agreement failed to address the contentious, yet critical issues, of security and internal boundaries. Clashes between the signatories continued after the signing, but the level of violence was lower than in the months preceding the agreement, which included an intense campaign across Unity state in April through June.
Creation of a unity government and new fighting grounds (2019-2020)
Negotiations continued in 2019 between the Government of South Sudan and SPLM/A - IO after the signing of the R-ARCSS peace deal in September 2018. The agreed formation of a unity government was postponed several times throughout 2019. The main stumbling blocks were how the security of the opposition leaders would be guaranteed upon returning to Juba, and the issue of how many administrative states South Sudan would have. A new unity government was finally formed after multiple rounds of negotiations on 22 February 2020. Salva Kiir remained president, and Riek Machar, leader of SPLM/A - IO was appointed first vice president, four additional vice presidents were appointed representing different political factions in the country.
Scattered clashes took place between the Government of South Sudan and SPLM/A - IO during 2019 and 2020, mostly due to personal differences between different generals, however the fighting did not meet the UCDP threshold to become active.
A new fighting ground was established between the government and NAS (National Salvation Front) led by Thomas Cirillo, in the Greater Equatoria region of South Sudan, when clashes escalated in 2019. Fighting between the two parties continued, mainly in Central Equatoria state, despite negotiation efforts during 2020.
