SUMMARY
When ULFA launched its armed insurgency for independence in 1988 (active in UCDP data for the first time in 1990) the group was a highly popular outfit in Assam, with a vast network of civilians supporting the movement. The main explanation for this support was ULFA's promise to establish an uncorrupted government, loyal only to the people of Assam and not the "vices of corruption and greed". Firmly supported by a large portion of the populace ULFA's combat strategy consequently targeted mainly the government forces of the state of Assam and India and not civilians. These conditions were however altered as the conflict dragged on, and when ULFAwas struck by severe military pressure by the Indian government's army -and the surrender of thousands of cadres- during the mid and late 1990s. Many analysts point towards these events as being the causal factors behind the shift of ULFA's strategy; the shift towards targeting civilians on a larger scale as of the year 2000. Three goals for the new strategy are the most often mentioned; (1) increase in killings due to the need to extort funds from businesses, (2) attempts at making its presence felt in the face of severe pressure (both military and diplomatic pressures), and (3) to force the Indian government to come to talks.
These explanations can however not account for the different types of groups that are targeted in ULFA's one-sided attacks on civilians. The civilian groups most commonly attacked are political activists and Hindi-speaking settlers, businessmen, and other people with financial resources, and cadres that have surrendered to the government. A number of civilians are also killed as ‘collateral’ during ULFA's attacks on civilian infrastructure, or for being thought to be government informers.
Political activists are believed to be attacked so as to influence the electoral processes in Assam through terror and secure victory for political parties sympathetic to the cause. The motives behind attacks on non-Assamese settlers are likely to be linked to ULFA's perception that they are in essence tools for colonization by the Indian government. Businessmen and tea-estate owners are targeted due to extortion rackets, and several are shot dead for not paying the outfit what it demanded. Surrendered cadres are thought to be targeted due to the threat they pose to ULFA, or for being suspected government informers. ULFA attacks on infrastructure (such as gas and oil pipelines and trains) begin on a larger scale in 1996, but escalate from that point on, claiming the lives of many bystanders. Some analysts point to these deeds being carried out both for purposes of terror, and as a tool for embarrassing and weakening (economically) the government of Assam.
ULFA first became active as a one-sided actor in UCDP data in 2000, when one-sided violence resulted in at least 25 civilian deaths. The threshold was reached in October that year when the group attacked a market in Assam state, killing ten civilians.
