SUMMARY
Guatemala experienced a brutal and protracted civil war from 1960 to 1996. The vast majority of casualties in this conflict were civilians, mostly resulting from an extremely violent counterinsurgency campaign led by the Guatemalan government. Since the end of this intrastate conflict, the country has not seen any major armed conflict. However, non-state violence perpetrated by organized criminal groups has remained a persistent feature of the security landscape, fluctuating in intensity over time. The geographic proximity to Mexico, combined with the incorporation of Guatemalan nationals into Mexican criminal organizations, has facilitated the occasional extension of inter-cartel violence into Guatemalan territory.
Since 1989, Guatemala has experienced the intrastate, non-state and one-sided categories of organized violence, as defined by UCDP.
2025
In 2025, Guatemala continued to experience non-state violence involving M18 and MS-13, including targeted killings, executions, and violence in detention facilities. While the majority of recorded violence consisted of armed confrontations between organized criminal groups, reports also indicated instances of one-sided violence perpetrated by these same actors against civilians. Additional acts of violence against civilians were attributed to actors whose fatality counts do not yet reach the 25-death threshold for inclusion in UCDP data. Clashes between the Jalisco Cartel New Generation and the Sinaloa Cartel were also reported in December in the department of Huehuetenango.
Organized Violence in Guatemala
Guatemala experienced a brutal and protracted intrastate armed conflict from 1960 to 1996. The primary armed opposition group at the time of the conflict's resolution was the URNG (Unidad Revolucionaria Nacional Guatemalteca, Guatemalan National Revolutionary Unity), which operated across the country. A vast majority of casualties in this conflict resulted from acts of one-sided violence perpetrated by government forces in an attempt to eradicate popular support for insurgent groups. This violence was most intense in the early 1980s, with 1982 marking the deadliest year of the conflict. From 1991 onwards, violence declined, and in September 1996 the government and the URNG signed a peace agreement. The URNG subsequently demobilized and reorganized as a political party, ceasing to exist as an actor in the UCDP data.
Guatemala has recorded no major armed conflict since the end of this intrastate conflict, but has continued to experience non-state violence. Since 2005, constant violent clashes have been recorded between Mara 18 and MS-13, two rival gangs founded by Hispanic immigrants in the United States that relocated their operations to Central America following mass deportations in the late 1990s and early 2000s. In 2008, clashes between the Mexican Gulf Cartel and the Sinaloa Cartel resulted in 11 fatalities on Guatemalan soil. In 2011, the Mexican cartel Los Zetas killed 27 people in Guatemala.
Pre-1989 conflicts
Since 1946, Guatemala has experienced almost continuous political unrest. In 1949, a coup attempt by a faction of the army failed and resulted in a short intrastate conflict. Another violent coup followed in 1954, when the forces of Carlos Castillo Armas (supported by covert US action) seized power. Carlos Castillo Armas was assassinated in 1957, and an era of elected rightist governments and military dictatorships followed. During this period human rights abuses were rampant, with political dissenters being liquidated by the thousands by government-affiliated death squads.
In 1960, another failed coup attempt by a group of left-wing military officers led to the onset of the Guatemalan Civil War. Here, survivors of the coup attempt founded the armed group MR-13 (Movimiento Revolucionario 13 de Noviembre, Revolutionary Movement November 13). In 1962, MR-13 joined with the Guatemalan Labour Party PGT and student-led Movimiento 12 de Abril (12 April Movement) to form the umbrella organization FAR I (Fuerzas Armadas Rebeldes, Rebel Armed Forces). In later years, more armed actors would join in the civil war. In 1969, the PGT founded its own rebel movement called FAR II (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias, Revolutionary Armed Forces). In 1972, the EGP breakaway factions from the FAR I formed the EGP (Ejército Guerrillero de los Pobres, Guerrilla Army of the Poor) and ORPA (Organización del Pueblo en Armas, Organization of People in Arms), which both adhered to Marxist ideology and recruited many indigenous Maya people.
The government counterinsurgency campaign peaked in the 1980-1983 period, when over 100.000 civilians are estimated to have been killed. In what is now considered a genocide, most of this violence was directed at Maya communities who were perceived as providing vital support to the rebels. The four armed groups active in the 70s - FAR I, FAR II, EGP, and ORPA - would unite to create the URNG in 1982. The UNRG would continue to fight the Guatemalan government until the end of the Civil War in 1996.
