SUMMARY
Paraguay has not experienced a civil war in the modern era, but it has a long history of authoritarianism, state repression, and localized insurgency. While the country has remained relatively stable since its democratic transition in 1989, it has experienced non-state and one-sided organized violence, particularly linked to rural guerrilla activity, land conflict, and state abuses. Furthermore, the Ejército del Pueblo Paraguayo (EPP, “Paraguayan People's Army”) has carried out small-scale armed attacks since the early 2000s, prompting militarized state responses. However, Paraguay has not recorded sustained intrastate conflict above the 25-death threshold used by the UCDP to define active conflict.
Since 1989 Paraguay has experienced the intrastate, non-state and one-sided categories of UCDP organized violence.
2024
In 2024, Paraguay remained politically stable, with no active armed conflict recorded by UCDP. Nevertheless, security forces continued to monitor and respond to sporadic activity from the EPP and its offshoots, particularly in the northern departments of Concepción, San Pedro, and Amambay. These groups, although significantly weakened in recent years, have been responsible for kidnappings, arson, and occasional deadly ambushes, primarily targeting landowners, police, and military personnel.
The country also experienced a surge in organized crime activities, reinforcing its reputation as a critical hub for drug and arms trafficking in South America. One of the most significant events was the seizure of over four tons of cocaine concealed in sugar shipments at a port in Asunción – the largest drug bust in the country’s history. The Paraguay River remained a key trafficking route, used by transnational cartels to transport cocaine to Europe.
Inside the penitentiary system, the government extended a state of emergency to combat the dominance of powerful prison gangs, such as the Rotela Clan. In response to these growing threats, Paraguay signed a cooperation agreement with the FBI in March 2024 to strengthen its fight against organized crime and also deepened its collaboration with Italy to improve criminal investigations and prison intelligence under the “El PacCto 2.0” initiative.
The Paraguayan state has also come under scrutiny for heavy-handed counterinsurgency operations and accusations of extrajudicial killings, particularly in rural areas with weak institutional presence. In parallel, violence linked to organized crime, especially in border regions, has intensified, with Brazilian gangs like PCC (Primeiro Comando da Capital, “First Capital Command”) increasingly involved in drug trafficking and arms smuggling through Paraguay’s porous frontiers.
Despite this, overall levels of violence remained below UCDP thresholds and the country was not categorized as experiencing active armed conflict.
Organized violence in Paraguay
Paraguay’s main instance of organized armed violence in recent decades has involved the Ejército del Pueblo Paraguayo, a small Marxist guerrilla group active since the early 2000s. Emerging in rural northern Paraguay, the EPP has carried out a series of kidnappings, bombings, and attacks on security forces, sometimes overlapping with criminal operations like extortion and cattle theft.
The Paraguayan state has responded with militarized security operations, including the formation of the Joint Task Force (FTC), composed of police and military personnel. These operations have led to clashes, the deaths of EPP members, and the rescue of some hostages, but also prompted human rights concerns, particularly regarding civilian casualties, arbitrary arrests, and poor oversight.
At its peak in the 2010s, the EPP was considered a threat to rural security, especially in Concepción and San Pedro, but by 2023 it had largely fragmented into smaller groups with limited capacity for sustained conflict. The group's ideological dimension has eroded and its activity has become increasingly criminal.
In parallel, land conflicts between Indigenous communities, peasant organizations, and agribusiness interests have occasionally turned violent. These tensions have historical roots in unequal land distribution, dating back to the Stroessner dictatorship and its clientelist land policies. However, such violence remains sporadic and localized.
A history of instability
Paraguay’s modern political history has been marked by violent power struggles, particularly during the first half of the 20th century. Between 1904 and 1954, the country saw thirty-one presidents, most of whom were ousted by force, reflecting deep political instability and the rising influence of the military.
A major turning point came in 1947, when a coalition of Febreristas, Liberals, and Communists led by Rafael Franco launched a rebellion against President Higinio Morínigo, whose authoritarian rule had lasted seven years. Though Morínigo had briefly attempted to open politics by forming a coalition with former opposition parties, this move backfired, leading to a failed coup in late 1946 and full-scale civil war by spring 1947. The conflict ended in August with Morínigo’s victory, backed by the National Republican Association–Colorado Party (Asociación Nacional Republicana–Partido Colorado), a force that would remain in the background for many years.
Despite this, Morínigo was soon overthrown in 1948 by Colorado Party officers, who established a one-party state plagued by internal divisions. By 1950, the moderate democratic faction rose to prominence, and its leader, Federico Chaves, assumed the presidency.
Chaves' government was short-lived and in 1954, a coup led from within the Colorado Party – backed by General Alfredo Stroessner – forced him out. Stroessner became interim president and, with the support of the military and a prolonged state of siege, remained in power for the next 35 years.
Pre-1989 conflict: Stroessner’s 35-year dictatorship
The dictatorship of Alfredo Stroessner, known as the “Stronismo”, began with a coup in 1954 and marked one of the longest and most repressive periods in both Paraguay and Latin America’s history. Stroessner's regime combined military control, political patronage, censorship, and systemic repression to consolidate power. He quickly gained complete control over the Colorado Party, eliminating opponents and silencing dissent. By the early 1960s, opposition parties were either legitimizing the regime by participating in fraudulent elections or had been effectively neutralized. Civil liberties were severely restricted and those who opposed the regime faced continuous harassment and persecution.
Despite the authoritarian nature of his government, the regime oversaw a certain degree of modernization: the construction of the massive Itaipú hydroelectric dam on the Paraná River in the 1970s injected billions into Paraguay’s economy. This development helped lift segments of the rural poor, fostered the emergence of a middle class, and ended the country’s long-standing isolation.
Nevertheless, the “Stronismo” was flawed by extensive human rights violations, systemic corruption, and political violence. Elections were routinely rigged and the regime made methodical use of intimidation, torture, kidnappings, and political assassinations to suppress dissent. These tactics extended even to members of the ruling party deemed disloyal. The regime treated the economy as its own domain, tightly controlling it and leaving little space for independent private enterprise, which drove many entrepreneurs to leave the country.
During Stroessner’s dictatorship, the regime employed widespread and systematic violence to suppress dissent and maintain control. Under the pretext of safeguarding national security and combating communism, the government targeted a broad spectrum of individuals – including alleged terrorists, criminals, political opponents, and leftist dissidents. Repression was carried out through surveillance, arbitrary arrests, torture, enforced disappearances, and extrajudicial executions.
While early claims suggested tens or even hundreds of thousands of deaths during Stroessner’s rule, human rights organizations have documented over 400 forced disappearances and estimate that thousands more were unjustly imprisoned, tortured, or exiled. Prominent opposition movements such as the Movimiento 14 de Mayo (“May 14th Movement”) were dismantled through heavy-handed tactics and constant surveillance, effectively erasing organized resistance in the early years of the regime.
The state’s use of fear and violence was not incidental but it was a core mechanism of governance, signaling the regime’s absolute intolerance of any challenge to its authority.
A particularly brutal component of this repression was Paraguay’s active participation in Operation Condor, a clandestine alliance among South American military regimes aimed at eliminating opposition across borders. Through this transnational campaign, political refugees and exiles were tracked, abducted, and, in many cases, murdered with the cooperation of neighboring dictatorships.
By the 1980s, demands for democratic reform intensified. The Partido Liberal Radical Auténtico (PLRA, “Authentic Radical Liberal Party”), led by Domingo Laíno, became the leading opposition force, despite attempts to silence it through exile and arrests. Protest tactics such as mítines relámpagos – quick, rural demonstrations – emerged, though many activists were still detained.
In 1989, Stroessner was overthrown in a military coup led by General Andrés Rodríguez, marking the end of the “Stronismo”. In 1993, the country held its first free elections in decades, electing Colorado Party candidate Juan Carlos Wasmosy as Paraguay’s first civilian president in nearly 40 years. The election, recognized by international observers as free and fair, marked a turning point in the nation’s history, even though the dictatorship’s legacy – such as military dominance, elite entrenchment, and land inequality – continued to shape politics, fueling rural unrest and public distrust in state institutions until today.
