SUMMARY
The conflict over government in Nepal began in 1996, when CPN-M (Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist) launched its armed struggle to overthrow the monarchy and install a communist government. The conflict escalated in 2001, and in 2005, the king seized power in what was perceived as a royal coup. Following mass demonstrations and mounting international pressure, the government was eventually reinstated and a peace agreement was signed in 2006, which marked the end of the armed conflict.
IN DEPTH
Onset of the conflict in 1996
The roots of the Nepalese insurgency originate in the turbulent transition from an absolutist system of monarchy to a constitutional monarchy under multi-party democracy. The present system was introduced in 1990, following protests for democracy by a broadly supported “people’s movement.” Due to reluctance among the ruling forces to embrace more open economic and political systems, vague constitutional power-sharing arrangements between the king and the parliament, and a deeply divided political landscape, the system has been flawed by a lack of stability and unrealized expectations. The political vulnerability has been aggravated by the enormous poverty in the country.
It was against this political backdrop that CPN-M (Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist) publicly launched its armed struggle for a revolutionary transformation of the society. The stated goal of incompatibility of the “People’s War,” launched on 13 February 1996, was to overthrow the constitutional monarchy and install a communist government in its place. The announcement was followed by a series of attacks on political, military and commercial targets all over the country. The violence marked the onset of an insurgency that by 1999 affected half of Nepal’s 75 districts. In some of them the Maoist outfit practically ran parallel administrations, enforced their own taxation system and had burned land-ownership records, all of which made them immensely popular among the poor segments of the rural population. The anti-imperialist, anti-monarchist and anti-feudalist rhetoric of the Maoists also attracted lower castes and rural families that felt neglected by the Nepalese government. Popular sympathy for the insurgents was furthermore strengthened by the crude force used in police reprisals that failed to discriminate between the civilian population and suspected “Maoist rebels.”
CPN-M also demonstrated its military superiority in several guerrilla battles with the Nepalese security forces. The outfit received secondary support in the form of training and military hardware from a number of Indian Maoist insurgency movements, among them the Maoist Communist Center and the People’s War Group.
Fighting escalates and a state of emergency is declared in 2001
In mid 2001, the deteriorating security situation in the country was further aggravated by the June killing of the royal family. The incident itself had no connection with the Maoist revolt, but its impact on the conflict was seen in a general weakening of the monarchy as the new king failed to garner the same amount of public support. Furthermore, the Maoists used the general sense of disorder as an opportunity to further destabilize the government by stepping up their attacks and intensifying propaganda, and the conflict escalated to unprecedented levels in November 2001. Faced with the crisis, the Nepalese government declared a nationwide state of emergency and for the first time deployed the army to counter the insurgents. In early 2002 the government took major steps to strengthen the army crackdown, announcing a large jump in military expenditure and adding approximately 10 000 soldiers to the armed forces. The Nepalese government also secured considerable amounts of foreign aid, both in the form of military hardware, training, and financial funds from England, USA and India. The major crackdown put the rebels on the defensive. The state of emergency was extended twice, up until August 2002. It gave extended powers to police and army, which led to a major restriction of civil rights in Nepal. Furthermore, restrictions on freedom of the press strongly inhibited independent media reporting from the areas of turmoil.
Negotiations in 2001 and 2003
There have been two serious attempts to terminate the conflict through political negotiations, one in July 2001 and one in March 2003 (prior to the negotiations in 2006 which eventually terminated the conflict, see section on Peace agreement). The two ensuing phases of relative calm and encouraging signs of accommodation between the warring parties have, however, been followed by unprecedented levels of violence and intensification of the conflict. A ceasefire between the government and the CPN-M was in place on July 2001. Three rounds of talks were held between August and November, by the third of which the rebels indicated a willingness to drop their calls for abolishing the monarchy. On 22 November 2001 the rebels still decided to unilaterally pull out of the talks, announcing that the peace process was over since the government failed to accommodate any of their central demands. What followed were a series of coordinated attacks on government buildings and a rapid deterioration of the security situation. The end of 2001 saw the worst fighting since the beginning of conflict in 1996.
In late 2002, there were new signs that the rebels were willing to enter into negotiations with the government, as they announced a halt in attacks on civilian infrastructure in an attempt to create a conductive atmosphere for further talks. An initial ceasefire was surprisingly announced on 29 January 2003. A 22-point code of conduct was signed on 13 March that, among other things, committed both sides to halt violent activities, allow free movements within their area of control, and release detainees. In the period that followed both of the parties moderated their more absolutist demands. The first round of peace talks was held on 22 April, the next on 9 May and a third round of talks was initiated on 17 August 2003. The talks ended in impasse, as the government stated that it would not make concessions on the country’s multi-party constitutional monarchy, while the rebels turned down a government proposal for an interim administration that would include rebel representation. The parties declared a willingness to meet again, but on 27 August 2003 the Maoist surprisingly decided to withdraw from the peace talks and to break the ceasefire that had been in place since January. The rebels immediately stepped up attacks against security forces, and the conflict escalated rapidly.
At the end of 2004, the government as well as the international community asked the rebels to start peace talks. Although preparations have been made (within both parties) to start negotiations, no peace talks took place during the year 2004 despite offers for mediation by the UN and the EU.
The king seizes power in 2005
The Nepalese government threatened to push ahead with planned elections if the Maoist rebels would not respond by 13 January 2005 to an offer for peace talks, made by the government. The offer was rejected by the rebels on 27 November 2004. The Prime Minister issued a "fresh appeal" for talks on 1 December, without any result. On 17 December the government said it was willing to hold peace talks with the rebels, even after the January deadline.
On 1 February 2005, the king seized power and arrested democratic leaders. In what was widely seen as a royal coup, the rule of law was suspended as hundreds of political leaders, activists, journalists and rights workers were arrested to stifle dissent and suppress opposition. The king's actions met with widespread international condemnation, even by traditional allies such as India, the UK and the US. The state of emergency that was put in place during the coup was eventually lifted on 29 April after intense international pressure, but human rights activists pointed out that the king had not restored political freedom or released all politicians from jails.
The coup led to an escalation in violence which continued until 3 September 2005, when the Maoists declared a unilateral three-month ceasefire as they held talks with political parties. This ceasefire was not reciprocated by the king and while violence dropped dramatically during the ceasefire, small skirmishes continued to take place.
Nepal's mainstream political parties – embodied in the Seven Party Alliance – and the Maoists engaged in talks throughout the ceasefire and eventually came to an agreement in November 2005 on mutual goals and cooperation. The king refused to negotiate with the rebels until they lay down their arms and thus was not involved in the talks between the parties and the Maoists.
Peace agreement in 2006
2006 started precariously, as the ceasefire which ended on 2 January was not extended by CPN-M, leading to a return to active conflict throughout the country between January and April. After a prolonged series of countrywide mass demonstrations throughout April, however, the king reinstated Parliament. In May, CPN-M and the new government quickly reached a new ceasefire agreement regulated by a 25-point code of conduct. A series of negotiations eventually led to the signing of CPA (Comprehensive Peace Agreement) on 21 November, which held through the end of 2006.
CPA continued to hold throughout 2007, but the ongoing peace process was fraught with problems. Elections to the Constituent Assembly, a key aspect of CPA, were twice cancelled due to disagreements regarding the electoral system and whether Nepal should be declared a republic prior to the elections. CPN-M joined the interim government in April 2007 only to withdraw in September after reaching loggerheads with other parties. It returned to the government at the end of the year. 2007 also saw the rise of identity politics in the southern Terai area of Nepal, where Madhesi groups began agitating for autonomy and more access to political power. While this did not escalate into armed conflict, the proliferation of armed Madhesi groups raised the alarm that even if CPA holds, a new armed conflict may break out.
Elections to the Constituent Assembly finally took place in April 2008 and were declared free and fair by international monitors. The CPN-M subsequently led the government in an alliance with UML and MJF parties, with rebel leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) as Prime Minister. Political bickering remained commonplace, and concerns arose about the violent activities associated with the youth wings of various political parties, most notably CPN-M's Young Communist League. None of these violent activities constituted armed conflict by UCDP definitions. UNMIN's mandate was extended in December 2008 for another six months as the parties continued to work on the issue of security sector reform. During the course of 2009 the UN mission’s mandate was again extended twice.
In May 2009, while the conflict remained terminated, a political crisis erupted centering on General Rookmangud Katawal’s, the Chief of Armed Forces, refusal to admit ex-Maoist fighters into the national army. CPN-M thus attempted to have him removed from office; however, this move was countered by the President. This led Prime Minister Prachanda to resign his post. The Maoists promised to launch protests in the streets and disrupt the governmental and parliamentary proceedings until the President went back on his decision to let Katawal remain in office. Throughout the remainder of the year, protests were launched by the Maoists, and the political situation remained largely deadlocked.
