General information
Part of Conflict: Ethiopia: Ogaden
Date of first stated goals of incompatibility: 1990-12-31
Comment on date of first stated goal of incompatibility: Aiming to create a pan-Somali, Salafist emirate, and from the time of its inception in Somalia in the 1980s asserting that Islam could not be separated from politics, AIAI initially strove towards its goal by peaceful means. However, with during the last year of the Barre regime and the chaos that ensued AIAI evolved into a jihadist group, under the logic that its religious mission could only be assured by taking up arms.
AIAI’s venture in the Ogaden region of Ethiopia and its initiation of an armed struggle there suggests that the early goal of creating a pan-Somali, Salafist emirate was not restricted by state borders. This is confirmed by many knowledgeable analysts and researchers, who agree that AIAI looked to create not only an Islamic Republic within Somalia, but also a union of all Muslim nationalities in the Horn of Africa. It is unclear exactly when, but at the latest in 1990, the Ethiopian branch of AIAI began to agitate for the liberation of the “Muslim Ogaden” from “a Christian, highland oppressor”. Furthermore, it stated that it intended to establish a political order based on the Koran and the Sunna.
Date of first use of armed force: 1993-09-09
Comment on date of first use of armed force: On 9 September 1993 Ethiopian soldiers and Al-Itihad fighters clashed in the vicinity of a village called Da’rduur in the Ogaden region. It is unclear if there were any fatalities.
It should be noted that it is very likely that fighting had erupted even before this date. However, due to poor reporting this cannot be substantiated.
First Battle Related Death: 1993-10-13
Comment on First Battle Related Death: On 13 October 1993 Al-Itahad forces launched an attack in the Segeg area of Ogaden region in which 23 Ethiopian soldiers and 6 rebels were killed.
Date when dyad reached 25 battle releated deaths: 1993-10-13
Comment on date when dyad reached 25 battle related deaths: On 13 October 1993 Al-Itahad forces launched an attack in the Segeg area of Ogaden region in which 23 Ethiopian soldiers and 6 rebels were killed.
Conflict issues
Conflict Goal Issues: Al-Ittihad Al-Islami, Islamic Unity, (AIAI) was an Islamist rebel group fighting against the government of Ethiopia to establish a pan-Somali Salafist emirate. The group emerged in 1994, stating several conflict goals issues. They called for the establishment of an Islamic state governed by Sharia law and for the right of self-determination to be respected for the Somali people living in ‘Region Five’, which is where the group operated.
As the conflict progressed, AIAI did not reiterate its intentions of establishing an autonomous Islamic state with Sharia law. Instead, the group called for the protection of heritage sites of cultural and religious significance, stating that the “Ethiopian army would destroy mosques in Somali towns unless they were stopped”, and also called for the cessation of parts of Somalia to Ethiopia. As no issues were stated with frequency nor continuity, no main issue was interpreted for AIAI.
Conflict Dynamics Issues: The project coded no statements from AIAI pertaining to conflict dynamics issues.
Conflict Resolution Issues: AIAI were only interpreted as stating one issue pertaining to conflict resolution, when the group stated its opposition to a peace agreement as it was “unacceptable because it is not based on Islamic teachings” in 1997.
Type of conflict issues: Conflict Goal Issues: Autonomy, Change judicial system, CPS: Islamic state, Geographical status quo, Protection of cultural heritage
Conflict Dynamics Issues:
Conflict Resolution Issues: Opposition to peace agreement
Annual information
This section contains annual information systematically collected by the UCDP.
1990
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Secondary Warring Support:
Side A (Government of Ethiopia): n/a
Side B (AIAI): n/a
1993
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 36 |
| Best | 36 |
| Low | 36 |
Secondary Warring Support:
Side A (Government of Ethiopia): n/a
Side B (AIAI): n/a
1994
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 1 |
| Best | 1 |
| Low | 1 |
Secondary Warring Support:
Side A (Government of Ethiopia): n/a
Side B (AIAI): n/a
1995
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Secondary Warring Support:
Side A (Government of Ethiopia): n/a
Side B (AIAI): n/a
1996
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 325 |
| Best | 186 |
| Low | 186 |
Secondary Warring Support:
Side A (Government of Ethiopia): n/a
Side B (AIAI): n/a
1997
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Secondary Warring Support:
Side A (Government of Ethiopia): n/a
Side B (AIAI): n/a
1999
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 92 |
| Best | 25 |
| Low | 25 |
Secondary Warring Support:
Side A (Government of Ethiopia): n/a
Side B (AIAI): n/a
2007
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Secondary Warring Support:
Side A (Government of Ethiopia): n/a
Side B (AIAI): n/a
2010
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Secondary Warring Support:
Side A (Government of Ethiopia): n/a
Side B (AIAI): n/a
Dyad Archive
This section contains annual information no longer systematically collected by the UCDP.
1990 Dyad Archive
Terminated: NO
1993 Dyad Archive
Comment on Active: In 1993 the conflict fought over the Ogaden region became active for the first time in ten years. Much had changed since 1983; WSLF, the rebel group fighting for independence in the 1970s and 1980s had virtually disintegrated and did not maintain any significant military force any longer; the regimes in both Addis Ababa and Mogadishu had been toppled and in Ethiopia a so-called ethnic federation was being established.
Processes in both Ethiopia’s Ogaden region and in Somalia led to the renewed outbreak of violence in 1993. In Somalia, the Islamic movement AIAI (Al-Itahad al-Islami) had emerged in the 1980s, aiming to spread political Islam and establish a pan-Somali, Salafist emirate. With the opening up of the political space in Ethiopia after the fall of the Derg regime in 1991, an Ethiopian branch of AIAI, al-Itihaad al-Islaami ee Soomaaliya Galbeed (the Islamic Union of Western Somalia), present in the country since 1990, was registered as an official political party and its members were granted the right to campaign and express their views in the media. However, in parallel, the group continued to build up its military wing, convinced that its ultimate goal of liberating the Muslim population of the Ogaden region from what they viewed as a Christian, highland oppressor, could only be achieved by force. Training camps were set up across the region and military instructors from al-Qaida were brought in for assistance.
In late 1992, the Ethiopian wing of AIAI was joined by a large group of Somali AIAI fighters. The mother movement had left its main base at Laas Qoray and split into several groups, one of which crossed the border into Ethiopia, and another establishing a large presence in the Somali Gedo region, near the Ethiopian border.
During the year AIAI escalated its guerrilla activities and the Ethiopian government responded in kind, by stepping up ground and air attacks on the rebels along the Somali border. Furthermore, the group also claimed responsible for bombings and assassination attempts.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiations: There were no negotiations between AIAI and the Ethiopian government in 1993.
Victory: NO
Terminated: YES
Type of termination: No or Low Activity
Date of termination: 1993-12-31
Comment on Termination: In 1994 activity in the conflict between AIAI and the Ethiopian government decreased and while fighting still took place, it did not cross the 25 battle-related deaths threshold, wherefore this dyad is coded as not active in 1994.
1994 Dyad Archive
Comment on Active: While some intermittent fighting was reported in 1994, it did not cross the 25 battle-related deaths threshold.
Negotiations: YES
Comment on Negotiations: In December AIAI agreed to meet with both ONLF, the Ogadeni political party in power in the region, and the transitional government. The parties subsequently met in Kebridehar, with AIAI represented by Deputy Chairman Abdillahi Omar. The government’s main demand was that the rebels disavow all ties with the movement in Somalia, but the group was reported to maintain that they had no relationship with the Somali branch. Also disarmament was discussed, but no progress was made since the AIAI delegation refused to hand over their weapons to anybody but clan elders.
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1995 Dyad Archive
Terminated: NO
1996 Dyad Archive
Comment on Active: In 1996 AIAI became active again, after two years of low activity. During the year the group claimed responsibility for a number of bombings and assassination attempts in Ethiopia. Abdulkadir Mohamud Dhaqane, AIAI’s spokesman in Mogadishu, at a press conference, stated that the group would continue attacking senior Ethiopian officials and pursue its guerrilla attacks in the Ogaden until the region became independent. Apart from stepping up military operations in Ogaden, the Ethiopian government in August responded by launching a military assault on the Somali AIAI branch’s main base area in Gedo region. In heavy fighting the group’s main base at Luuq was destroyed. Further fighting was announced in Dolow, Somalia, in September, and again in December.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiations: There were no negotiations between AIAI and the government in 1996.
Victory: NO
Terminated: YES
Type of termination: No or Low Activity
Date of termination: 1996-12-31
Comment on Termination: After the Ethiopian offensives in both Ogaden and Somalia, AIAI was weakened to the point that it had ceased to be able to present a military challenge to the Addis Ababa regime. While some intermittent fighting was reported in 1997 it did not cross the 25 battle-related deaths threshold and the conflict between the Ethiopian government and AIAI was thus not coded as active.
1997 Dyad Archive
Negotiations: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1999 Dyad Archive
Comment on Active: In 1999 the conflict between the Ethiopian government and AIAI became active again after two years of low activity. Apart from fighting inside Ethiopia, there were reports of Ethiopian troops crossing the border and attacking joint ONLF-AIAI camps in Somalia.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiations: There were no negotiations in the conflict in 1999.
Victory: NO
Terminated: YES
Type of termination: No or Low Activity
Date of termination: 1999-12-31
Comment on Termination: No fighting involving AIAI was reported in 2000, wherefore the conflict between the rebel group and the Ethiopian government is coded as terminated by low activity by 31 December 1999.
2007 Dyad Archive
Negotiations: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
2010 Dyad Archive
Negotiations: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
