General information
Type of Incompatibility: Territory
Comment on Type of Incompatibility: The incompatibility concerns the territorial status of the predominantly Muslim state of Jammu and Kashmir situated in northwestern India, bordering Pakistan. Kashmir insurgents dismiss the legality of J&K's accession to India in 1947 and thus the legitimacy of India's claim to the territory.
The parole to end Indian rule in the state appears, however, to be the one thing that unites the insurgents. The movement is fragmented and lacks any central command, and the perception of the incompatibility differs between the separate outfits on whether it advocates Jammu and Kashmir's independence or accession to Pakistan. Several of the outfits have been deliberately vague on the issue, as Pakistan's patronage has dependent on adhering to the latter stand.
Territory: Kashmir
Date of first stated goal of incompatibility: 1977-05-29
Comment on date of first stated goals of incompatibility: JKLF (Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front) was established on 29 May 1977 in the UK, with the basis in an already existing undergroud militant network based in the UK. The primary aim of the group was "to struggle against foreign occupation, gain independence and attain an honourable position amongst free nations of the world."
Date of first use of armed force: 1984-02-03
Comment on first use of armed force: Even before the establishment of JKLF in 1977 its leaders, under other banners, had participated in violent activities, such as the highjacking of an Indian airplane in 1971. In the 70s and early 80s, the UK based JKLF was mainly confined to agitation on the political and diplomatic front. The first use of armed force by JKLF members that can be separately confirmed was the kidnapping of "Indian Deputy High Commissioner in Birmingham" Mr. Mahtre, on 3 February 1984. The kidnappers demanded the release of one of the co-founders of JKLF, Mr. Butt. The demand was turned down and on 6 February Mr. Mahtre was killed.
The armed struggle was, according to JKLF's own historical account, launched on 31 July 1988 with two bomb-blasts in the city of Srinagar.
Date of first battle related death: 1984-02-06
Comment on first battle related death: The first battle related death in the conflict that can be separately confirmed was the kidnapping and subsequent killing of "Deputy High Comissioner in Birmingham" Mr Mahtre, on 6 February 1984. The kidnappers originally demanded the release from jail of one of the co-founders of JKLF, Mr Butt. When the demand was turned down, Mr Mahtre was killed.
Date of conflict reached 25 battle releated deaths: 1990-02-12
Comment on conflict reached 25 battle releated deaths: It is difficult to find reports on the separate incidents of violence in the early phases of the conflict. By 12 February 1990, over 100 people had been killed in clashes in Jammu and Kashmir state.
Annual information
This section contains annual information systematically collected by the UCDP.
1977
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1984
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 1 |
| Best | 1 |
| Low | 1 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1989
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 19 |
| Best | 19 |
| Low | 7 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1990
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 703 |
| Best | 474 |
| Low | 452 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1991
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 551 |
| Best | 330 |
| Low | 330 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1992
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 337 |
| Best | 265 |
| Low | 265 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1993
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 1159 |
| Best | 846 |
| Low | 845 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1994
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 1148 |
| Best | 958 |
| Low | 955 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1995
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 894 |
| Best | 687 |
| Low | 687 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1996
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 1232 |
| Best | 489 |
| Low | 489 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1997
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 555 |
| Best | 533 |
| Low | 533 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1998
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 701 |
| Best | 576 |
| Low | 576 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1999
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 883 |
| Best | 864 |
| Low | 844 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2000
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 2422 |
| Best | 2356 |
| Low | 2330 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2001
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 3644 |
| Best | 893 |
| Low | 817 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2002
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 1499 |
| Best | 1499 |
| Low | 1499 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2003
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 1463 |
| Best | 1328 |
| Low | 1307 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2004
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 1404 |
| Best | 1404 |
| Low | 1227 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2005
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 1139 |
| Best | 1058 |
| Low | 1055 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2006
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 728 |
| Best | 705 |
| Low | 698 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2007
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 562 |
| Best | 550 |
| Low | 540 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2008
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 525 |
| Best | 500 |
| Low | 482 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2009
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 393 |
| Best | 361 |
| Low | 358 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2010
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 437 |
| Best | 370 |
| Low | 365 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2011
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 147 |
| Best | 140 |
| Low | 140 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2012
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 147 |
| Best | 144 |
| Low | 143 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2013
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 147 |
| Best | 146 |
| Low | 140 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2014
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 228 |
| Best | 179 |
| Low | 178 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2015
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 170 |
| Best | 165 |
| Low | 164 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2016
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 297 |
| Best | 282 |
| Low | 282 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2017
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 322 |
| Best | 322 |
| Low | 322 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2018
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 390 |
| Best | 386 |
| Low | 386 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2019
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 276 |
| Best | 267 |
| Low | 266 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2020
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 312 |
| Best | 311 |
| Low | 311 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2021
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 254 |
| Best | 250 |
| Low | 247 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2022
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 237 |
| Best | 235 |
| Low | 235 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2023
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 173 |
| Best | 119 |
| Low | 111 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2024
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 114 |
| Best | 112 |
| Low | 111 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2025
Primary Parties: Government of India - Kashmir insurgents
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 158 |
| Best | 93 |
| Low | 87 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
Conflict Archive
This section contains annual information no longer systematically collected by the UCDP.
1977 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
1984 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
1989 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: A series of anti-government demonstrations, strikes and violent attacks on government targets, launched from July 1988, marked the onset of the Kashmir insurgency. In the attempt to control the rise in "anti national acitvities" the Indian Government came increasingly to rely on use of security forces.
The JKLF was the single dominant rebel movement in 1989, and as the year proceeded its violent campaign of daily bombings, assasinations and general strikes gained momentum. It also enforced an effective boycott of the national elections in November 1989. It culminated in December in the kidnapping of the daughter of the Indian Interior Minister. The rebels demanded the release of five JKLF members to save her life. Amid widespread attention the incident developed into a major political confrontation between the Indian government and the insurgents. The government ultimately ascended to the rebel-demand, but the incident marked the onset of a rapidly escalating circle of violence that reached unprecedented heights in January 1990.
Comment on Yearly Battle Related Deaths: It is difficult to find reports on the separate incidents of violence. The estimate of battle related deaths must thus be based on the general accounts available, which clearly convey an impression of a mounting insurgency. By 11 December 1989 over 80 persons are said to have been killed in clashes with police, bombing and assassinations during JKLFs campaign. The circumstances are not further specified, but other news reports confirm that several of these are killed by the police during general strikes or demonstrations or in indiscrimminate attacks by the insurgents. A conservative estimate of battle-related deaths in 1989 can thus not be put higher than 25.
Negotiations: NO
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1990 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: In a situation of growing tension, the Indian government strengthened the armys presence in Kashmir in January. After a government crack-down on the Muslim Separatists was intiated on 20 January, clashes between Indian troops and the separatists became a daily afffair. Also the political front hardened, as the local government resigned in protest and a Governor, responsible directly to the central government, was installed in its place.
In the end of June the rebels stepped up their activity: intimidation of Hindu residents, kidnapping and assasinations of Government officials and suspected informers, sabotage and bombings. By then the activity had also spread geographically beyond the Kashmir valley. Some of the militant outfits were even active outside the state and claimed responsibility for bomb blasts in Bombay and New Dehli.
On 19 July Presidential rule was imposed on the province.
Negotiations: NO
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1991 Conflict Archive
Comment on Yearly Battle Related Deaths: In October it was reported that 1000 militants and 290 security personnel were killed during the year. Journalists claimed that several of the alleged militants were in reality civilian bystanders.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: The government offered talks "within the framework of the constitution", but this was rejected by the rebels who reiterated their determination for an armed struggle.
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1992 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: Throughout 1992 the government continued to seek a military solution to the trouble, employing the army and paramilitary forces. During the spring and summer the conflict escalated further and in mid-1992 the government launched a "catch and kill" policy to execute captured rebels. The government-forces was blamed for gross human rights violations in Kashmir.
Negotiations: NO
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1993 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: Several disturbing trends could be noticed in the latter half of the year. There was a marked upsurge in violence, and the casualty numbers were more than doubled. Secondly, the fighting spread geographically, from the city of Srinagar to the more rural parts of the Kashmir valley. Thirdly, there was a clear tendency that both the number of troops and the sophistication of military equipment was on the rise.
In late 1993 the All Party Hurryiat Conference, an umbrella organisation where a majority of the leaders in the separatist organisation came together to act as a single political voice of the independent movement.
Comment on Yearly Battle Related Deaths: Best estimate of battle related death.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: On 1 March the Indian Government offered talks and promise of more autonomy to the rebels in exchange for disarmament and a return to civilian life. The militants rejected the offer and stated that nothing short of independence would be satisfying.
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1994 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The popular support for the insurgents among the civilian population in Kashmir was apparently on the wane - apparently following inter-group clashes and resort to criminality, kidnapping and extortion of money in the militants ranks. The army crack down operations also attempted to isolate the hardcore insurgents from the civilian population.
Towards the end of the year the situation appeared to deteriorate, with the Indian army on the defensive, while the militants gained control over key strategic positions in the mountains.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: To revive a democratic process the Indian government decided to release some of the militant leaders detained, but no further steps were taken and following a large-scale armed encounter in February 1995 the planned election was postponed.
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1995 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: A two month long standoff between the Indian army and militants at a Sufi shrine ended with total destruction of shrine and most of the town burned down. The two parties blamed each other and again international attention was directed at the human rights situation in Kashmir. The negativ focus was further enhanced by kidnapping of foreign tourists by a militant group called Al Faran. A norwegian hostage was executed by his captors in August 1995.
Negotiations: NO
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1996 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: In 1996 India decided to re-introduce a democratically elected government in Jammu and Kashmir. The state-assembly election was carried out under heavy surveillance in the presence of armed forces. There was widespread intimidation both by the military and the militants, and the election was furthermore hampered by severe restrictions on freedom of the press. Farooq Abdullah, who had been chief minister in Kashmir in the period proceeding the armed insurgency, formed a new government.
The main policy platform of Abdullah was a reintroduction of article 370 in the constitution on Kashmir- providing the territory with special status, i.e. autonomy, within the Indian Federation. The attempts at collaboration with the Indian government failed, and so did the attempts to improve the security situation on the ground. (Abdullah was defeated in the 2002 elections.)
Negotiations: NO
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1997 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: There was a clear increase in cross-border infiltration by militants joining the separatist insurgency. During the year an estimated 400 militants, many of them veterans from the Afghan war, crossed the border from Pakistan.
Negotiations: NO
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1998 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: Separatist violence increased in 1998 . Much of it was blamed on the activity of foreign insurgents in Jammu and Kashmir as cross-border infiltration by non-Kashmiri militants continued on a larger scale than earlier. Also inside Kashmir the inclination to support and join the militants seemed to be on the rise.
Negotiations: NO
Third party involvement: NO
Comment on Third Party Involvement: The government of India continued to insist that the Kashmir conflict was an internal concern for India, and that no parties should be allowed to take part in the negotations.
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1999 Conflict Archive
Negotiations: NO
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
2000 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: At the beginning of the year the situation deteriorated, but in April there were more positive indications that talks were underway between the parties. Leaders of the All Hurryiat Conference were released in April and in May. In July one of the most active rebel groups, Hizb-ul-Mujahideen declared a unilateral ceasefire, that the army reciprocated the move and suspended all offensive operations against the Kashmir militants in 11 years. Other militants criticized the Hizb-ul Mujahideen for taking such unilateral steps, and continued the violent agitation in an attempt to disrupt the peace effort. The ceasefire ended in August as the parties failed to agree on Pakistans role in possible talks. Following the collapse the violence intensified markedly, and security was heightened.
The Indian government took unilateral steps to facilitate a dialogue, as they suspended all offensive militar operations again in November - during the month of Ramadan. The unilateral ceasefire was extended on several occasions, last time on 22 February 2001. The important APHC welcomed the move and offered to enter into negotiations with the government. Hizb-ul Mujahideen and other of the more militant groups, especially those organizing the foreign rebels, rejected. Another hinder for negotiations to take place was the resistance of the Indian government to involve the Pakistan government in tripartiate talks.
Negotiations: YES
Comment on Negotiation: On 24 July the Hizb-ul-Mujahideen declared a unilateral ceasefire. They were widely criticized by other insurgency groups for taking unilateral steps. The Indian government reciprocated the move and suspended all offensive operations against the Kashmir militants in 11 years. Hizb-ul-Mujahideen and Indian representatives met once, but the preliminary talks broke down over the issue of Pakistan participating in possible talks. The Indian government also stated that talks should take place within the framework of the Indian constitution. Any negotiation on Hizb-ul-Mujahideens goal of accession to Pakistan was thus ruled out from the beginning. After two weeks the Hizb-ul Mujahideen decided to end its ceasefire.
The Indian government took unilateral steps to facilitate a dialogue, as they suspended all offensive militar operations again in November - during the month of Ramadan. The unilateral ceasefire was extended on several occasions, last time on 22 February 2001. The important APHC welcomed the move and offered to enter into negotiations with the government. Hizb-ul Mujahideen and other of the more militant groups, especially those organizing the foreign rebels, rejected. The period was marked by a number of attacks on security forces and civilians. Another hinder for negotiations to take place was the resistance of the Indian government to involve the Pakistan government in tripartiate talks.
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
2001 Conflict Archive
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: A positive sign that is perhaps increasing the chances of negotiations with the government is the increased gap between the more moderate and more extremist elements in the Kashmir insurgency movement. Hurryiat leaders have explicitly taken distance from the more extremist elements, especially those dominated by foreign mercenaries.
The APHC has also allegedly given up its demand for tripartiate talks between the Indian government, the Pakistan government and the Hurriyat. Instead it has proposed a bilateral dialogue with each of the two governments.
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
2002 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The state-assembly election in 2002 took place amid widespread violence and intimidation from both militants and the army. Militant Islamic groups carried out attacks both on candidates and polling stations. Farooq Abdullahs National Conference lost power.
Comment on Yearly Battle Related Deaths: "Best estimate: 1500
Low estimate: 1500
High estimate: 3000"
Negotiations: NO
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
2003 Conflict Archive
Comment on Yearly Battle Related Deaths: "Best estimate: 1246
Low estimate:1246
High estimate: 1447"
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: On 22 October, the Indian cabinet authorized the Deputy Prime Minister to hold talks with Kashmiri group All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC), in the first high-level contact between the secessionist leaders and the government, and on 21 November, it was reported that APHC leaders had agreed to enter into negotiations with India, although no date was set for the talks. If talks were to take place, they would constitute the first high-level contact between the government and separatist political leaders in Jammu and Kashmir.
A number of obstacles to talks remained: APHC wanted to discuss the dispute with Pakistan as well, but India was opposed to three-way talks, and APHC wanted talks focus not on decentralization as India suggested, but instead on Kashmiris’ demand for autonomy. APHC is a legal political alliance and does not use armed force (though some of its constituents are believed to be allied with armed militants); it split in 2003 reportedly either over the issue of engaging in talks with India or because divisions between pro-independence and pro-Pakistan factions came to a head.
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
2004 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: In the shadow of improved Indian- Pakistan relations, violence in Kashmir declined somewhat compared to previous years. Rebel activity remained, however, at a high level claiming more than 1000 battle related deaths.
The government this year launched an unprecedented dialogue with the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) . On a meeting 22 January, the parties stated their commitment to find an "honourable and durable solution” to the Kashmir problem through dialogue, calling for an end to all violence. This was the first high level political contact between the Indian government and the seccessionist leaders during the 15 years of insurgency.
A continuation of the talks were slowed down by a change of government in India. The new government later this year re-launched the peace initiativ, offering talks, ceasefire and promises of a partial troop withdrawal. However, the negotiations remained on hold following disagreement over Pakistans involvement in the process.
Comment on Yearly Battle Related Deaths: "Best estimate: 1134
Low estimate: 1126
High estimate: 1738"
Negotiations: YES
Comment on Negotiation: The government this year launched an unprecedented dialogue with the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) – a legal political alliance of groups agitating for Kashmir’s autonomy - but also assumed to represent the main political voice for important segments of the insurgency movement in Kashmir. The alliance groups about two dozen political, religious and community groups but was somehow weakened when a hardline faction, supported by militants opposing talks, split in 2003.
In early January the Union Government formally invited the APHC for talks with the Deputy Prime Minister. On a meeting 22 January, the parties stated their commitment to find an "honourable and durable solution” to the Kashmir problem through dialogue, calling for an end to all violence. This was the first high level political contact between the Indian government and the seccessionist leaders during the 15 years of insurgency. The BJP government then said substantive talks would be held in June with APHC, but the ruling alliance was replaced by a Congress party-led coalition in an election and the dialogue was postponed.
The new government announced that talks were to take during the first months, but the peace processes remained flagged until November, when it regained some momentum following the prime minister’s visit to the area, the announcement of an Indian troop withdrawal and an invitation to unconditional talks and a cease fire with Kashmiri rebel groups. The APHC chairman rejected the Indian offer for talks, saying that there was nothing substantial in the proposal. The APHC criticized the Indian government of not being explicit on whether they were willing to include Pakistan in the dialogue. The APHC argued that they had initiated talks with the previous government on three conditions, firstly, that talks on Kashmir should be unconditional, secondly that they should be Kashmir-centric and thirdly that there should be the mandatory involvement of Pakistan in the talks. The insurgent leaders refused to engage further in the peace process until the Indian government openly acknowledged these as the starting point for talks. Further progress in the dialogue remained on hold throughout 2004, waiting for this issue to be settled.
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
2005 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: While the conflict continued, Indian officials reported that cross-border infiltration of insurgents from Pakitsan had dropped to extremely low numbers. This can be attributed to two causes: 1) the ceasefire with Pakistan means that rebels cannot cross the border under cover of cross-border shelling; and 2) India has recently built a fence that covers large parts of the Line of Control, in turn hindering insurgents ability to cross the border. The fence is also a result of the ceasefire, as India was able to build it after the secession of military hostilities.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: Talks were initiated between the government and the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC), an umbrella group for moderate Kashmiri religious and political groups. These talks are not considered negotiations according to UCDP criteria because they only involve one conflict party--the government of India. The APHC does not include any active Kashmiri insurgent group and does not represent the interests of the active rebels.
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
2006 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The level of battle-related violence in Kashmir continued to drop in 2006, leading to an increase in tourism and development aid projects in the state. The Indian army was quick to take credit, attributing the decrease to its "iron fist, velvet glove" counter-guerrilla strategy. Perhaps a more plausible explanation is the ongoing peace process between Pakistan and India, which has led to increased cooperation by Pakistan in stopping cross-border infiltration by insurgents.
Many Kashmiris nonetheless remained frustrated by the slow pace of progress in securing peace and security. Government negotiations with the moderate All Parties Hurriyat Conference produced no substantive results and which did not include the active insurgent groups. There were also disturbing indications throughout 2006 that civilians were increasingly becoming the target for militant violence, and that some groups were redirecting their energies towards large-scale attacks on soft targets outside of Jammu and Kashmir, such as the Mumbai train bombings of July 2006 which were reportedly committed by the Kashmiri insurgent group Lashkar-e-Toiba. There were also some indications that Kashmiri militant groups were becoming increasingly active in trying to incite communal violence.
Comment on Yearly Battle Related Deaths: "Low estimate: 702
Best estimate: 702
High estimate: 735"
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: Several rounds of talks were held between the Indias Prime Minister Singh and the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC), an umbrella group for moderate Kashmiri religious and political groups. During these talks, the two sides discussed the economic conditions in the region, trade, and the state of human rights, among other issues. The Hurriyat also pressed for a reduction in the army presence in Kashmir and for a release of political prisoners, but its chief demand is to be included in peace talks between India and Pakistan, a move New Delhi has consistently rejected.
These talks are not considered negotiations according to UCDP criteria because they only involve one conflict party--the government of India. The APHC does not include any active Kashmiri insurgent group and does not represent the interests of the active rebels.
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
2007 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The Kashmir conflict remained active in 2007, but the trend towards decreasing violence continued, with a sharp decline in fatalities since 2006.
Comment on Yearly Battle Related Deaths: Hizbul Mujahideen, a leading insurgent group, alleged that the government systematically underreports fatalities to its forces, claiming that only one in ten killings is reported to the media. The group did not provide any evidence to substantiate this claim.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: Negotiations with the non-violent Kashmiri group All Parties Hurriyat (Freedom) Conference broke down in mid-2007. No negotiations took place between the Indian government and any active rebel group.
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
2008 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The number of fatalities continued to decrease in 2008. This can be explained in part by several factors. First, the ceasefire between Pakistan and India has limited the opportunities for militants to enter Indian-controlled Kashmir from Pakistan because they can no longer cross under the cover of Pakistani shelling. Second, the ceasefire has allowed India to improve security along the border by putting in three-tier border fencing along the Line of Control. The effectiveness of the fencing on the LoC has led to decline in the rate of successful infiltration bids by militants, according to Indian military sources. Finally, US officials claim that a growing number of militants who earlier operated only inside of Pakistan and Kashmir are now joining the insurgency in Afghanistan.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: While bilateral talks continued to take place between India and Pakistan, they did not specifically address the status of Kashmir or include any Kashmiri insurgent groups; thus, they do not constitute negotiations according to UCDPs definition.
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
2009 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The conflict between Kashmir insurgents and the Indian government continued to deescalate during 2009, with the death toll in the conflict being the lowest during the decade. The Indian security forces claimed to be making progress against the insurgent, killing or capturing several militant commanders during the year. At the same time, there were concerns that the rebels were shifting their attention to “soft” targets, underscored by the allegation of Lashkar-e-Taiba’s responsibility for the November 2008 Mumbai attacks.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: In June, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh stated that the government was open to talks with separatist groups as well as with local political parties. In September, it was revealed that government representatives had conducted secret talks with parts of the insurgent movement since the latest negotiation process was abandoned in 2005. In October, Home Minister P. Chidambaram announced there would be "quiet dialogue, quiet diplomacy" with all concerned parties in Jammu and Kashmir. While the statement was welcomed by the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC), separatist leaders responded that the government should pull out its troops, release political prisoners and put an end to human rights violations before talks could be held. Informal talks with the APHC were initiated in late 2009, but did not constitute negotiations by UCDP definitions as the Kashmir insurgents were not represented in the talks. In an apparent attempt to derail the negotiations, the moderate APHC leadrer Fazl Haq Qureshi was shot and badly wounded by unknown gunmen in December.
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
2010 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The conflict continued throughout 2010 with similar death-tolls as in 2009, a marked decrease when comparing to previous years. Amid several arrests and reports of “neutralised” rebel hideouts, there was abundant reporting of militants attempting to cross the Line of Control, dividing the Pakistani- and Indian-controlled parts of Kashmir. These instances frequently led to violence.
Moreover it should be noted that the period between June and October also saw numerous clashes between stone-throwing demonstrators and security forces. However, as the protesters were not part of the Kashmiri insurgency per se, these events do not fall into the UCDP definition of the conflict.
Comment on Yearly Battle Related Deaths: The year also saw violent protests taking place in Kashmir. Starting in early June, demonstrators took to the streets in protest against India. The security forces often responded with violence. These clashes resulted in over 100 deaths between June and October. However, these figures are not part of the state-based death-toll, as the demonstrators were not part of the Kashmiri insurgency per se. As the demonstrators tended to be armed with stones, the incidents do not qualify as one-sided violence either.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: The Union Government repeatedly said it was prepared to hold talks with the various groups in Kashmir, provided they would stop their violent activities. In early December, the Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister also urged the insurgents to engage in dialogue with the Union Government. However, in spite of these attempts no talks were held.
Third party involvement: YES
Third party involvement names: Group of Interlocutors
Comment on Third Party Involvement: In early October the Union Government created a group of interlocutors whose main function would be to travel around the state to attempt to start up a process of dialogue. This process would include all sections of society, both separatists and civilians, and ultimately aim to change the climate of anger and violence.
Aside from the state-based conflict between the Government of India and the Kashmiri insurgents, the state also saw a few months of violent protests during 2010. Stone-throwing demonstrators clashed with the security forces on several occasions and a substantial number of people were killed. This dimension of the conflict is not part of the state-based conflict, nor does it qualify as a one-sided conflict, since the demonstrators were armed according to UCDP definitions. The group of interlocutors however, was appointed against a background of both the state-based conflict and these demonstrations, and thus it is hard to single out exactly which dimension of the very complex ongoings in Kashmir they were to regulate. However, since they were to engage with all sections of society and bearing in mind the Union Government’s calls for dialogue with the insurgents, the group is considered a Third Party to this conflict.
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
Comment on Termination: The conflict remains ongoing
Comment on Termination Date: The conflict is not terminated
2011 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: Violence continued throughout 2011, with lower death-tolls as in 2010, which was a marked decrease when compared to previous years. Amid several arrests and reports of “neutralized” rebel hideouts, there was abundant reporting of militants attempting to cross the Line of Control, dividing the Pakistani- and Indian-controlled parts of Kashmir. These instances frequently led to violence.
The intensity has been similar during the year, though with a peak in August. The casualties in each attack were most often only a few and the most casualties were recorded on the side of the insurgents.
Comment on Yearly Battle Related Deaths: The intensity and level of violence had been lower in 2011 compared to earlier years. The Indian army had said that the security situation in Jammu and Kashmir had come to a satisfactory level and that the number of militants operating in the area had fallen by half in the past years.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: The government of India planned to withdraw paramilitary troops from Kashmir during the year and also to make renewed efforts to hold talks in the region, however no distinct results had been seen.
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Comment on Victory: The conflict is ongoing.
Terminated: NO
Comment on Termination: The conflict remains ongoing
2012 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The conflict in Kashmir continued to smolder in 2012, resulting in well over 100 battle related deaths between the Government of India and Kashmir Insurgents. Though the fighting was slightly more intense in 2012 than in 2011, the level of violence remained very low compared to most years of the conflict.
The vast majority of fatalities in 2012 were suffered by Kashmir Insurgents. Many of these fatalities occurred as insurgents attempted to infiltrate across the Line of Control into Indian territory. On such occasions, Indian security forces often blocked infiltration attempts, or quickly tracked down and engaged successful infiltrators.
Despite the battle successes of Indian security forces, Kashmir Insurgents continued to influence local village leaders (members of the Government of India) with violence and the threat of violence.
Comment on Yearly Battle Related Deaths: The conflict between the Government of India and Kashmir Insurgents resulted in 149 battle-related deaths in 2012. This figure constitutes a slight increase from 2011, but remains consistent with an overall decline in the intensity of the conflict since 2002.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: No negotiations took place between the Government of India and Kashmir Insurgents during 2012.
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
2013 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The conflict remained active in 2013, and the level of intensity between 2012 and 2013 remained almost identical. Indian security forces continued to engage scores of insurgents attempting to cross the Line of Control between Indian- and Pakistani-controlled territory. Many engagements produced fatalities throughout the year.
Insurgents also carried out several attacks within Jammu and Kashmir which produced several fatalities. Insurgents assassinated several unarmed police officers in areas the Indian Army had deemed safe for law enforcement agents. Insurgents also successfully ambushed several patrols and outposts.
Comment on Yearly Battle Related Deaths: Fighting in Kashmir in 2013 generated over 140 Deaths. The intensity of the conflict changed very Little between 2012 and 2013, and remains very low compared to fighting in the 1990s and 2000s.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: No negotiations occurred in 2013.
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
2014 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The conflict remained active in 2014, at intensity levels similar to those in previous years. Indian security forces continued to engage scores of insurgents attempting to cross the Line of Control between Indian- and Pakistani-controlled territory. Many engagements produced fatalities throughout the year.
Comment on Yearly Battle Related Deaths: Fighting in Kashmir in 2014 generated over 170 deaths, a level similar with previous years. The intensity remains very low compared to fighting in the 1990s and 2000s.
Negotiations: NO
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
2015 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The conflict remained active in 2015, at intensity levels similar to those in previous years. Indian security forces continued to engage scores of insurgents attempting to cross the Line of Control between Indian- and Pakistani-controlled territory. Many engagements produced fatalities throughout the year.
Insurgents also carried out several attacks within Jammu and Kashmir which produced several fatalities. Attacks on police stations and military encampments were relatively common. Insurgents also successfully ambushed several patrols and outposts.
Comment on Yearly Battle Related Deaths: Fighting in Kashmir in 2015 generated over 160 deaths, a level similar with previous years. The intensity remains very low compared to fighting in the 1990s and 2000s.
Negotiations: NO
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
2016 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
2017 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The conflict over Kashmir continued to be active in 2014, with violence affecting a significant number of the state’s districts. For most of the 2010s, violence has remained at relatively low levels in the region. However, amid intensified efforts from Indian security forces to contain the various insurgent groups in Kashmir, violence escalated for two consecutive years in 2016 and 2017. Activity was registered both in areas along the Line-of-Control, separating Indian-controlled Kashmir from the Pakistani-controlled parts, as well as in other areas of Jammu and Kashmir state.
Negotiations: NO
Terminated: NO
2018 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The conflict over Kashmir has increased for the fourth consecutive year and thus continues to be active in 2018. The Pulwama district and Kupwara district were particularly affected; however, violence was recorded all over Jammu and Kashmir state. India continued to blame Pakistan for supporting the Kashmir insurgents groups, while Pakistan denies this. Moreover, India contends that the increase in violence and the claimed decrease in recruitment for the various insurgent groups shows the success of the security forces to combat the Kashmir insurgency.
Terminated: NO
2019 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: Though the intensity of the conflict over Kashmir has not reached the level of war since 2005, it had kept increasing steadily from 2014 to 2018. This trend was interrupted in 2019 with a drop in the number of battle-related deaths reaching the fatality figure lower than the one in 2016. Despite the fact that the violence was recorded all over Jammu and Kashmir state, Pulwama district was particularly affected in 2019. Meanwhile, India continued to blame Pakistan for supporting the Kashmir insurgent groups, while Pakistan denies this.
Terminated: NO
2020 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The conflict intensity increased again in 2020 amidst curfews and communication blackouts introduced in August 2019, following the revocation of Article 370 that granted autonomy to the region in 1947. While the violence was prevalent across Jammu and Kashmir State, Pulwama district was particularly affected in 2020. Meanwhile, India continued to blame Pakistan for supporting the Kashmir insurgent groups, which was yet again denied by Pakistan.
Negotiations: NO
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
2021 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: While the conflict intensity decreased slightly in 2021 when compared to 2020, violence was prevalent across Jammu and Kashmir State. The curfews and communication blackouts introduced in August 2019, following the revocation of Article 370 that granted autonomy to the region in 1947, were lifted in February 2021.
Negotiations: NO
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
2022 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: While the conflict intensity continued to slowly decreased in 2022, violence was prevalent across Jammu and Kashmir State, and the situation is still tense. The government of India remained focused on a mainly military solution to the Kashmir issue, and there has been continued criticism against the violence from security forces and human rights abuses in the region. Additionally, the Kashmir insurgents have carried out targeted killings of both Muslim and Hindu civilians. The insurgent groups most active in the conflict in 2022 were LeT, JeM and Hizbul Mujahideen.
Negotiations: NO
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
2023 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The conflict in the Jammu and Kashmir state remained active but continued the trend of decreased intensity that has been present for the past years. 2023 was the least fatal year in the conflict since it was first recorded as active in the UCDP. Despite this, the conflict in Jammu and Kashmir remains the most violent one in India.
Negotiations: NO
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
2024 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The conflict, while remaining active, has continued on a path of declining intensity, with 2024 recording the lowest number of fatalities since 1989. While the conflict's intensity continued to decrease, violence remained prevalent throughout Jammu and Kashmir state. The government of India remained focused on a mainly military solution to the Kashmir issue, and there has been continued criticism of the violence by security forces and human rights abuses in the region. As in previous years, the most active groups within the umbrella actor Kashmir insurgents in 2024 were Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM), and Hizbul Mujahideen (HM).
Negotiations: NO
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
2025 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: In 2025, a slight decrease in fatalities compared to the previous year was recorded, aligning with the last years trend on negative intensity. Although conflict intensity continued to decrease, violence remained prevalent throughout the state of Jammu and Kashmir. The government of India remained focused on a mainly military solution to the Kashmir issue, and there has been continued criticism against the violence from security forces and human rights abuses in the region. As in previous years, the most active groups within the umbrella actor Kashmir insurgents in 2025 were Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM).
Negotiations: NO
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
Type of termination: Not terminated
