General information
Type of Incompatibility: Territory
Comment on Type of Incompatibility: The incompatibility concerned the constitutional status of Northern Ireland. The British government considered this region to be part of the British territory. The central aim of the IRA was to end British control of Northern Ireland and to achieve the reunification of the island of Ireland.
With the ongoing peace process, the incompatibility has to a great extent developed into being an issue of decommissioning of weapons. The British government does not want to grant Northern Ireland self-rule as long as the IRA does not permanently reject the use of armed force. The IRA, for its part, does not want to decommission its arms before all Northern Irish local government institutions are functioning.
Territory: Northern Ireland
Date of first stated goal of incompatibility: 1970-04-05
Comment on date of first stated goals of incompatibility: On this date, a statement by the Northern Divisional command staff of the IRA was made in response to British General Freelands warning that people throwing petrol bombs were liable to be shot dead if persisting. The IRA responded by saying that "Irishmen throw petrol bombs in their own defence against a superior armed forces" and that "the British Army is a foreign army on Irish soil".
A weaker indication of the (P)IRA stating the goal of incompatibility can be discerned on 28 December 1969. On this date, a split in the IRA occurred. The breakaway group became known as the Provisional IRA (P)IRA and the remaining group as the Official IRA. The split in the IRA became public knowledge on 11 January 1970. On this date, Sinn Féin held a party conference in Dublin at which the party split into Provisional Sinn Féin and Official Sinn Féin. The latter were in favour of ending the abstentionist policy - of not taking part in the parliaments of Belfast, Dublin, and London, whereas the former wanted to continue the struggle but with an even more hard-line policy. This division mirrored the split that had occurred on 28 December 1969 when the IRA broke up into two organisations.
Date of first use of armed force: 1970-04-05
Comment on first use of armed force: The British Army was deployed in Northern Ireland in October 1969. From this date, the army was clashing on and off with the civil rights movement as well as with youth rioting. To a great extent, the participants of these riots consisted of Catholic inhabitants. The clashes became more and more serious with time. However, it is difficult to ascertain to what level the IRA was involved in the riots. Most likely, it played an inspiring rather than organisational role in the first few months of 1970. After 5 April, when the IRA had officially stated the goal of incompatibility, there was no doubt of its growing involvement in the riots.
Date of first battle related death: 1970-08-11
Comment on first battle related death: Several deaths occurred during or as a result of violence in riots since the deployment of the British Army in 1969. Due to the difficulty of differing between a civilian and an IRA member, there is no absolute certainty as for when the first battle-related death occurred. On 11 August 1970, two British policemen were killed by a booby trap bomb, attached to an abandoned car. The bomb was the work of the IRA.
Date of conflict reached 25 battle releated deaths: 1971-08-31
Comment on conflict reached 25 battle releated deaths: A year after the first battle-related death took place, the fighting between the British Army and the IRA had intensified with casualties occurring on a regular basis, thus reaching 25 battle related deaths by the end of August 1971.
Annual information
This section contains annual information systematically collected by the UCDP.
1975
Primary Parties: Government of United Kingdom - PIRA
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 25 |
| Best | 25 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1976
Primary Parties: Government of United Kingdom - PIRA
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 25 |
| Best | 25 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1977
Primary Parties: Government of United Kingdom - PIRA
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 25 |
| Best | 25 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1978
Primary Parties: Government of United Kingdom - PIRA
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 825 |
| Best | 825 |
| Low | 825 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1979
Primary Parties: Government of United Kingdom - PIRA
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 25 |
| Best | 25 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1980
Primary Parties: Government of United Kingdom - PIRA
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 25 |
| Best | 25 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1981
Primary Parties: Government of United Kingdom - PIRA
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 25 |
| Best | 25 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1982
Primary Parties: Government of United Kingdom - PIRA
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 25 |
| Best | 25 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1983
Primary Parties: Government of United Kingdom - PIRA
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 25 |
| Best | 25 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1984
Primary Parties: Government of United Kingdom - PIRA
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 25 |
| Best | 25 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1985
Primary Parties: Government of United Kingdom - PIRA
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 25 |
| Best | 25 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1986
Primary Parties: Government of United Kingdom - PIRA
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 25 |
| Best | 25 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1987
Primary Parties: Government of United Kingdom - PIRA
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 25 |
| Best | 25 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1988
Primary Parties: Government of United Kingdom - PIRA
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 25 |
| Best | 25 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1989
Primary Parties: Government of United Kingdom - PIRA
Dimension: Internal
Comment on Dimension: Being a disagreement between the British government and a non-governmental armed group based on the British territory, the conflict is classified as being of an intrastate character. The Republic of Ireland naturally plays a crucial role for the overall conflict situation and has strong connections to the conflict origins. However, it must be emphasised that the Irish government did not give any military support to the IRA.
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 40 |
| Best | 39 |
| Low | 39 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1990
Primary Parties: Government of United Kingdom - PIRA
Dimension: Internal
Comment on Dimension: Being a disagreement between the British government and a non-governmental armed group based on the British territory, the conflict is classified as being of an intrastate character. The Republic of Ireland naturally plays a crucial role for the overall conflict situation and has strong connections to the conflict origins. However, it must be emphasised that the Irish government did not give any military support to the IRA.
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 46 |
| Best | 44 |
| Low | 44 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1991
Primary Parties: Government of United Kingdom - PIRA
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 28 |
| Best | 27 |
| Low | 27 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1992
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 18 |
| Best | 18 |
| Low | 18 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1993
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 16 |
| Best | 16 |
| Low | 16 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1994
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 7 |
| Best | 7 |
| Low | 7 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1995
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1996
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 2 |
| Best | 2 |
| Low | 2 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1997
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 4 |
| Best | 4 |
| Low | 4 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
1998
Primary Parties: Government of United Kingdom - RIRA
Dimension: Internal
Comment on Dimension: Being a disagreement between the British government and a non-governmental armed group based on the British territory, the conflict is classified as being of an intrastate character.
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 30 |
| Best | 30 |
| Low | 30 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
Peace agreements
Name of peace agreement: The Good Friday Agreement
Date when warring parties signed the agreement: 1998-04-10
Comment of peace agreement: Full peace agreement
After a long series of negotiations, all eight Northern Irish parties participating in the multi-party talks agreed on the content of the Good Friday Agreement (also called the Belfast Agreement). The first part of the agreement, crucial for the Unionists, stated that Northern Irelands constitutional status could only be changed if a majority of the Northern Irish people so desired. It was decided that a referendum would be held every seventh year to establish whether the majority wished to unite with the Republic of Ireland or not. Next in the agreement were the clauses of Strand One, which included the establishment of a Northern Irish parliamentarian assembly (with mechanisms guaranteeing influence from both catholic and protestant parties) and a coalition government (with both catholic and protestant parties).The clauses of Strand Two of the peace agreement involved the establishment of a North-South Ministerial Council (with representatives from the Irish government and the Northern Irish government) It was mentioned that the council had the right to consider to establish a joint parliamentary forum.The clauses of Strand three established a British-Irish Council (including also representatives from the regional institutions in Northern Ireland). A permanent British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference was to replace the institutions of the Anglo-Irish Agreement.
Apart from the regulation of the constitutional issues, the agreement also read that the paramilitary groups should be disarmed within two years, under the monitoring of the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning (IICD). Another controversial part of the agreement was the release of those prisoners charged with terrorist acts that belonged to groups that had declared a ceasefire. The IRA issued a statement saying that it would judge the agreement "against its potential to deliver a just and durable peace". On 22 May, referenda were arranged in both Northern Ireland and in the Republic of Ireland, on whether or not the peace agreement should be ratified/adopted. More than 71% voted yes in Northern Ireland and the peace agreement could thereby be adopted. Both a majority of the Northern Irish Protestants (51%) and of the Catholics (99%) supported the agreement. In the Republic of Ireland (where the yes percentage was 94,4), a referendum was also arranged on constitutional changes concerning Irelands legal claim on Northern Ireland.
Signatories: The British-Irish Agreement was signed by: Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern. The Multipary agreement was negotiated by eight Northern Irish parties: the Ulster Unionist Party, the Social Democratic and Labour Party, Sinn Féin, the Alliance Party, the Progressive Unionist Party, the Northern Ireland Women’s Coalition, the Ulster Democratic Party and Labour
Comment of signatories: Dyadic peace agreement
Sinn Féin said they needed a "period of consultation" with their membership before they could sign the Good Friday Agreement. On 6 May, the Sinn Féin leadership confirmed its support for the peace agreement. As was the case during the negotiations, Sinn Féin was generally seen as a proxy for the IRA. In an IRA statement of 30 April, the group commended the efforts of Sinn Féin. The IRA further said that Sinn Féin could be sure that the IRA desire was to see all republicans engage in the ongoing process in a constructive and positive way. Yet, in the same statement the IRA made clear that any matters affecting the IRA was a matter only to be decided upon by itself.
Third parties: The US President Bill Clinton, Ireland, George Mitchell, IICD (Independent International Commission on Decommissioning)
Comment of third parties role in peace agreement: George Mitchell was significantly involved in bringing about the peace agreement, chairing the negotiations leading to the agreement. Bill Clinton, President of the USA, promised to visit Northern Ireland if that would help ensure the success of the agreement. President Clinton also issued a statement and personal messages urging people to recognise the opportunities offered by the agreement and to vote yes to its adoption. Ireland had a crucial role in achieving the peace agreement, i.e. by issuing a draft agreement in January. The Irish government/parliament also made sure all preparations were taken to change the part of the constitution concerning Irelands legal claim on Northern Ireland.
According to the peace agreement, the IICD, led by the Canadian John de Chastelain, was tasked to monitor the decommissioning of paramilitary weapons.
Comment of Duration: The peace agreement cannot be considered as ended. None of the parties have stated their wish to give up the agreement. The violence between the parties has also been reduced, apart from a limited number of attacks carried out by breakaway factions of the IRA. Furthermore, most of the clauses of the agreement have been fulfilled.
On the other hand, there were serious problems with one of the dimensions of the implementation of the agreement. This concerned the decommissioning of paramilitary weapons. Already on 30 April 1998, the IRA issued a statement saying that "the agreement falls short of presenting a solid basis for a lasting settlement" and "let us make it clear that there will be no decommissioning by the IRA". This approach was recurrent in the following years. At the same time, the IRA confirmed its "definitive commitment" to the peace process and at times cooperated with the weapons inspectors. Sinn Féins approach was that nothing in the Good Friday Agreement stipulated that decommission has to occur before an Executive coalition government could be formed. The Unionist parties, on the other hand, rejected the formation of the Executive before the decommissioning started. May 2000 was set as the deadline for the completion of the decommissioning. On 7 August 2001 IRA agreed on a method for decommissioning their weapons arsenal and on 23 October IRA begun the process that was finished on 26 September 2005.
Between 14 October 2002 and 7 May 2007, the Northern Irish institutions were (for the fourth time) suspended and put under direct rule from London.
Nevertheless, there were constant efforts to make the peace agreement survive. Several clauses from the agreement have been implemented. Thus, the Good Friday Agreement is considered as ongoing.
Full-text peace agreement
1999
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2000
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2001
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2002
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2003
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2004
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2005
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2009
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 3 |
| Best | 3 |
| Low | 3 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2011
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 1 |
| Best | 1 |
| Low | 1 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2012
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2016
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2019
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 1 |
| Best | 1 |
| Low | 1 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2021
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Internal
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
Conflict Archive
This section contains annual information no longer systematically collected by the UCDP.
1975 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The Provisional IRA announced a ceasefire on 20 December 1974, with all its operations in Britain and Ireland suspended from midnight on 22 December, to midnight on 2 January the following year. According to statements made by the IRA, the intention with the truce was to offer the British Government an opportunity to consider and reply to peace proposals for an end of the war.
The truce had been terminated on 16 January, followed by a number of incidents of bombings and killings in Northern Ireland involving members of IRA. These violent incidents continued until the renewed IRA ceasefire began on 10 February, when it was resumed indefinitely. The renewed ceasefire went on during a six-month period between April and September 1975. Temporary resumption of IRA bombings and shootings throughout the province took place in September, followed by shootings and bombings in Belfast carried out by the UVF (Ulster Volunteer Force). Violence escalated with Provisional IRA bombings and shootings, Protestant violence, and sectarian and inter-factional murders, and was to be continued in a six-month period. By December 1975 it was obvious that the ceasefire had ended, although it wasn’t made officially until the formal announcement in January 1976.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: An alleged deal was made between the British Government and Sinn Féin during the ceasefire in the beginning of the year. According to Sinn Féin and the IRA they had agreed upon a 12 point plan, some elements of the alleged deal became known, as the construction of ‘incident centers’. The British Government and the Northern Ireland Office denied that any deal with the IRA had been made.
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1976 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The pattern of violence established by all parties during the conflict continued, with Provisional IRA bombings and shootings, Protestant violence, and sectarian and inter-factional murders.
The Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF), one of the Loyalist paramilitary groupings, announced on 22 May, the beginning of a three months cease-fire. The ceasefire was to be broken on several occations, the first time on 5 June when five civilians where killed.
Negotiations: NO
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1977 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The violence followed the same patterns as previous years during the conflict.
Negotiations: NO
Third party involvement: NO
Third party involvement names: President of the US, Jimmy Carter.
Comment on Third Party Involvement: Although no further involvement took place from the US it is worth noting a speech given in August by Jimmy Carter, then president of the United States. The speech declared that the American government would support any initiative that led to a form of government in Northern Ireland which had the support of both sections of the community. Special attention would be given actors that would create jobs in the region. He also called on Americans not to provide financial and other support for groups using violence in Northern Ireland. The latter was an indirect request to the NORAID foundation (see on IRA secondary support).
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1978 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The violence followed the same patterns as of previous years during the conflict. In November IRA made a statement warning that they were preparing themselves for a “long war”. In connection with this statement a serial of IRA renewed bombing attacks took place, during one week over 50 bombs were exploded across Northern Ireland.
Negotiations: NO
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1979 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The violence followed same patterns as of previous years of the conflict. In August the IRA killed 18 British soldiers in a single attack, which represented the greatest lost of life in one attack for the British Army in Northern Ireland. The attack took place at Warrenpoint, County Down.
Negotiations: NO
Third party involvement: NO
Third party involvement names: the Unites States of America
Comment on Third Party Involvement: An event of great concern for the British Government took place in August when the United States State Department halted a firearms shipment on its way to Northern Ireland. The private shipment contained firearms bound for RUC. This action was part of a campaign established to find a solution to the conflict in Northern Ireland brought by the US in order to try to bring pressure on the British Government to undertake new political initiative in Northern Ireland. This was the first time during the conflict that the US department was not uncritical of the British policy in Northern Ireland.
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1980 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The violence followed same patterns as previous years during the conflict.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: In May, the resent appointed Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister), Charles Haughey met with Thatcher in London and according to a communiqué released after the meeting, greater political co-operation was promised between the two governments.
Haughey also argued in an interview on the BBC that it was in the interest for Britain as well as for Ireland if Britain withdrew its troops from Northern Ireland. Haughey further argued that some kind of federation could be a possible solution to the conflict, in the event of a withdrawal of British troops. He had also, during a conference in Dublin the same year, called for a joint initiative, on behalf of the Irish and British Governments, to find a political solution to the conflict.
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1981 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: As a consequence of the hunger-strike in the beginning of March, the Republican movement endured greater international sympathy for their cause. The events eventually led to the emergence of Sinn Féin as a significant political force in Northern Ireland. In connection to the hunger strike it had also been an upsurge of violence outside the Maze prison.
1981 became a year with marked increase of terrorist activity in comparison to the previous year. However, the dyad followed the same pattern of violence as previous years.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: A round of meetings began during the year between Garret FitzGerald, then the Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister), and Margaret Thatcher, then British Prime Minister, which led to improved relationship between the two governments. The Anglo-Irish Inter-Governmental Council was established in which ministers and officials from the two governments regularly would meet too discuss matters of common concern.
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1982 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: Around the time of the elections, from October 1982 to early May 1983, there was a sharp increase in sectarian violence and assassination attempts of several Assembly candidates and their families. Beside this period the violence followed patterns of previous years during the conflict, however, a lower level of violence compared to previous year could be noted.
Negotiations: NO
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1983 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The violence followed the same patterns as previous years during the conflict.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: Informal meeting between Thatcher, then British Prime Minister, and FitzGerald, then Taoiseach, took place in England in order to improve relations between the governments.
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1984 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The parties followed the same pattern of violence as previous years during the conflict.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: In November, resumption of bilateral meetings between the British and the Irish governments took place in England within the framework of the Anglo-Irish Intergovernmental Council (AIIC). During the meeting Thatcher, then British Prime Minister, and FitzGerald, then Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister) discussed the ‘New Ireland report’ that had been published earlier the same year- setting out possible solutions to the conflict. The report set out three possible options for the future of Northern Ireland: join with the Republic in a United Ireland; joint authority over the region by the Republic of Ireland and Britain; a federal or confederal arrangement. The report rejects the use of violence to achieve political change in Northern Ireland.
Third party involvement: NO
Comment on Third Party Involvement: In March, Garret FitzGerald, then Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister), had called on the United States Congress to urge Britain to accept the proposals that were emerging from the New Ireland Forum. After the report had been published, both houses of Congress in the USA unanimously backed the Report of the New Ireland Forum.
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1985 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: In November the Irish and British government signed the Anglo Irish agreement, this lead to general discontent and violent clashes in Northern Ireland. 1985 was to be characterized by political instability and sectarian violence. However, the parties followed similar pattern of violence established previous years of the conflict.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: : Although no negotiations took place between the warring parties it is worth noting a cooperation agreement between the British and the Irish government. The Anglo-Irish agreement was signed at Hillsborough, County Down by Margaret Thatcher, then British Prime Minister, and Garret FitzGerald, then Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister), on behalf of the two governments. The first part of the document stated "The two Governments affirm that any change in the status of Northern Ireland would only come about with the consent of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland.". The Agreement also stated that the two governments would support any future wish by the people of Northern Ireland to enter into a united Ireland. The Unionists were bitterly opposed to the agreement for giving Dublin a voice in Northern Irelands’ affairs, whereas the nationalists saw this part as an important development. The agreement was criticized for not including local politician. Loyalist paramilitaries also reacted and the Ulster Freedom Fighters (UFF) declared all members of the Anglo-Irish Conference and Secretariat to be legitimate targets.
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1986 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The parties followed the same pattern of violence established previous years during the conflict.
Negotiations: NO
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1987 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: In May, Special Air Service (SAS) ambushed a group of IRA members in the process of attacking a police station at Loughgall. This incident was the highest loss of IRA members in one attack as the SAS soldiers shot dead eight members of the IRA and one civilian that unfortunately drove through the village. Further, during the annual Remembrance Day ceremony in Enniskillen, County Fermanagh, IRA carried out a bomb attack resulting with the death of 11 people and 64 injured.
Negotiations: NO
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1988 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: An event in Gibraltar was to become the spark of increased violence and a chain of events resulting in several deaths and killings. It was in March that three unarmed Irish Republican Army (IRA) members were shot dead by undercover members of the Special Air Service (SAS) in Gibraltar. This incident led to great controversy and investigations. In Northern Ireland the violence escalated.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: Although no negotiations took place between the warring parties, it is worth noting a series of meetings that was initiated in January between the leader of Sinn Fein, Gerry Adams, and the leader the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP). The last meeting took place on 30 August the same year. These meetings are by some, considered to mark the beginning of the Irish peace process.
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1989 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The IRA stepped up its bombing campaigns to mark the 20 years of presence of the British troops. Apart from increased strikes on the British mainland, attacks were initiated also on British targets in West Germany and in the Netherlands. Army barracks and police stations were frequent goals. Being so called softer and more accessible targets, off-duty police officers were also targeted to a greater extent than previous years. The armed violence was also manifested by an increase in the secterian killings. Revenge attacks came in the form of punishment of individual civilians who were members of paramilitary organisations. However, mistakes where innocent civilians being killed often occurred. Reprisals often took place by shootings, and by the use of car bombs. The British governments policy was to contain the terror, for instance by the use of internments. However, there were also incidents where the security forces shot IRA men as well as Sinn Féin members. In July, the British Government appointed Peter Brooke as a new Northern Ireland secretary. Brooke was by many Catholics considered to be less defensive and more equable than his predecessor.
Comment on Yearly Battle Related Deaths: The sources used were reliable and detailed. Yet, the number of battle-related deaths can be considered to be somewhat uncertain, as there at times were difficulties in deciding whether the violence was directed against the British state, Protestant civilians or members of the Loyalist paramilitaries. In the same way, it was not always possible to determine whether the victims were IRA members or Catholic civilians. The estimation of battle-related deaths was also rendered difficult because of the alleged collusion between British security forces and active Loyalist groups. A high number of deaths in the region occurred in violence between the IRA and the Loyalist paramilitaries. In total, 61 people died in Northern Ireland during the year. The figure 32 deaths concerns people killed in clear attacks between the IRA and the British troops.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: No negotiations took place between the primary warring parties. In July, a new Northern Ireland Secretary, Peter Brooke, was appointed in the British government. He appeared to have a more equable approach than his predecessor and seemed to be committed to bring about talks between the Northern Irish political parties. In November, Brooke said that Sinn Féin could be invited to future talks if the IRA renounced violence. This statement gave rise to strongly negative reactions among the Unionist parties in Northern Ireland. Sinn Féin, however, asserted that it was not prepared to enter a discussion under the British governments preconditions.
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1990 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: To a great extent, the dyad followed the same pattern as the previous year. However, some indications of escalation as well as of descalation could be seen. Concerning the British government, Peter Brooke stated in one of his major speeches that Britain had no selfish economic or strategic interest in Northern Ireland and would accept the unification of Ireland by consent. At the same time, the British troops continued to be active in the conflict. The British government also took further measures to step up the security and defence "against the IRA guerrilla warfare". A statement by Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher indicated that the British approach was to "fight them within the civil law". The British government strategy continued to be to arrest IRA members under the Prevention of Terrorism Act.
Thatcher also emphasised that the real question was "whether we can do anything for protection and also assure ourselves that the Republic of Ireland is doing all it can to track down terrorists and their stores of weapons." As for the IRA, the group seemed to adopt a new tactic this year- the use of civilians as "human bombs" to drive booby-trapped cars into British Army checkpoints. The major gun and bombing campaign on the British mainland, that had been ongoing since the last two years, also continued. British detectives believed the IRA had two "active service units" in Britain maintaining an element of surprise with tactics ranging from car and letter bombs to brazen gun attacks in broad daylight. Targets ranged from low-level security establishments such as Army recruiting offices to a car bomb that killed parliamentarian Ian Gow. In August, a Sinn Féin spokesman said that the IRA would keep up pressure on Britain by diversifying their targets and continuing to attack also outside the country.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: No negotiations took place between the primary warring parties. The IRA (and Sinn Féin) claimed to be ready to negotiate with the British government and the Ulster loyalists at any time. The IRA declaring a ceasefire was however not enough for the British government to agree on talks. Peter Brooke, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, was ready to bring Sinn Fein into talks, but only if Gerry Adams, Sinn Féin leader, would renounce his support of the IRA. As this approach did not result in any success, Peter Brooke instead sought to break the political stalemate by encouraging a fresh round of talks between other Northern Irish parties. The first step was to make Northern Irish Unionist politicians resume contact with the British government. Initially, the Unionist claimed to be only interested in talks if the Anglo-Irish Agreement was suspended. Throughout the year, the Unionists partially changed this standpoint as Peter Brooke showed that it was possible to use gaps in the Anglo-Irish Conference for political negotiations to take place. There were a few meetings of Anglo-Irish Intergovernmental Conference during the year, focusing on setting a date for the political talks to begin. In May, Peter Brooke finally held meetings with Unionist leaders. Brooke also undertook talks with the SDLP (the biggest Northern Irish Catholic party) and with the Irish Prime Minister. The main disagreements between the parties were when and under what conditions the Irish government could be formally involved in the negotiations. For a long period throughout the year, the talks initiative was on hold. However, in the end of December, Brooke said he believed that there had been "real advances" during the year. Although admitting that no substantial progress had taken place, he pointed to the fact that there had at least been "new thinking about difficult issues, re-analysis of positions and goals, and re-evaluation of the validity of traditional aims". Nelson Mandela, Vice-President of the ANC, was the first high-level authority to officially suggest that there should be talks between the British government and the IRA. Mandela expressed his opinion while on a visit to Dublin in July.
Third party involvement: YES
Third party involvement names: Vice-President of the ANC Nelson Mandela, Republic of Ireland; Prime Minister Charles Haughey
Comment on Third Party Involvement: Even though the Irish state traditionally, and also during 1990, acted as a non-warring secondary party to the IRA, there was a tendency that Ireland started to revaluate its position in the incompatibility. In April, the Charles Haughey made the first official visit by a prime minister to Northern Ireland since 1965. In November, in a surprise result, Mary Robinson was elected as President of Ireland having won on the second count. Many commentators saw her election as symptomatic of a change in the Republic of Ireland to a more liberal, tolerant society. Later the same month, an arrested IRA member was extradited from Ireland to Britain. Nelson Mandela, Vice-President of the ANC, was the first high-level authority to officially suggest that there should be talks between the British government and the IRA. Mandela expressed his opinion while on a visit to Dublin in July.
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1991 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The British government stepped up intelligence activities. Undercover commandos in Britains SAS (Special Air Services) regiment was put in the front line. The IRA concentrated on a bombing campaign against economic targets and on retaliating in "tit-for-tat" shootings with Protestant extremists.
Comment on Yearly Battle Related Deaths: "Even though the number of battle-related deaths was decreasing, the civilian death toll in the province soared to 94, the highest figure in the conflict for 15 years. These deaths occurred as a result the sectarian violence and a bloody ""tit-for-tat"" dynamics."
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: No negotiations took place between the primary warring parties. Nevertheless, Peter Brooke, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, continued his efforts to make the four main political parties (UUP), (DUP), (SDLP), (APNI) participate in talks on the future of Northern Ireland. Differences over the proposals for talks between the parties, the British Northern Ireland Office and Irish ministers made Brookes efforts time-demanding. On 14 March, Brooke announced that the talks would take place during a gap in the (throughout the year ongoing) Anglo-Irish Conference meetings. On 25 March, all parties agreed to the arrangements for political talks. Brooke announced that the talks (later known as the Brooke/Mayhew talks) would involve a three-strand process. The first strand would include relationships within Northern Ireland and achieve a devolved government, the second strand would address the relation between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, and the third strand would focus on the relations between the British and the Irish governments. It was decided that the three strands must form a complete agreement - "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed". On 30 April, preliminary rounds of talks began by a series of bilateral meetings between Brooke and the representatives for the parties. Problems soon arose over where the discussions should be held and who should subsequently chair the later stages of the talks. On 17 June, direct all-party talks began. However, the Unionist parties stated that they would withdraw from the talks as soon as preparations for the Anglo-Irish Intergovernmental Conference would restart in the beginning of July. On 3 July, Brooke announced that he was bringing talks to an end.
In September and again in December, Brooke held a series of meetings with leaders of the political parties in an effort to restart the all-party talks. However, no progress was reached. Shortly after, John Major, the British Prime Minister, met with Charles Haughey, the Irish Prime Minister. An agreement was made to hold biannual meetings. In August, Sinn Féins leader Gerry Adams - the party had been excluded from the talks due to their support for the IRA - wrote a letter where he sought open-ended discussions between British and Irish governments as well as with political and church leaders in Northern Ireland.
Third party involvement: YES
Third party involvement names: South African Bishop Desmond Tutu, Sir Ninian Stephen, US government, Ireland, The Opsahl commission
Comment on Third Party Involvement: In April, when attending an Anglican conference in Newcastle, Northern Ireland, Desmond Tutu expressed his opinion that Sinn Féin should be invited to attend the forthcoming talks on the future of Northern Ireland. The same view was stated the previous year by the Vice-President of the ANC, Nelson Mandela. In June, (Sir) Ninian Stephen, then an Australian High Court judge and a former Governor-General of Australia, was named as the independent chairman for the strand of the forthcoming talks (later known as the Brooke / Mayhew talks) involving relationships between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
Later in the autumn, the US government called on its citizens to stop providing financial support for NORAID, an organisation which was suspected of giving funds to the IRA. A delegation of American politicians also arrived in Northern Ireland for a fact-finding visit. Tom Foley, the leader of the delegation refused to meet representatives of Sinn Féin until it had renounced the use of violence.
The tendency of the Irish state to change its role from being an indirect secondary supporting party to a third party was visible also this year. Dublin city council voted for a resolution not to allow Sinn Féin to use the Mansion House for its annual meeting. The reason given was Sinn Féins support for the IRA. Later in the year, the Irish Minister of Justice confirmed that there would be changes to the laws on extradition. The Irish state actively participated in the talks about Northern Irelands future, in efforts to regulate the behaviour and the incompatibility in the conflict. Thus, Ireland did not support the IRA in any way. On the other hand, Ireland could not be seen as having a completely neutral position in the incompatibility. According to its constitution (article 2 and 3), Ireland has a legal claim over all of its national territory - Northern Ireland included. Due to its connections to the origins of the conflict, the Irish state was seen as a biased third party.
In December, a meeting was held to announce the launch of the Initiative 92. The initiative was designed to seek the opinion of a broad cross section of individuals and organisations in Northern Ireland on the "ways out of the violent deadlock" of the previous 25 years. The Opsahl Commission was established to conduct oral hearings, to collect written submissions, and to write a report on the findings.
Victory: NO
Terminated: YES
Type of termination: No or Low Activity
Date of termination: 1991-12-31
Comment on Termination: According to the detailed Sutton battle-related death index, 24 people were killed in battle-related fights 1992. Consequently, the conflict stopped being active in 1991. A ceasefire was declared by the IRA (and by a number of protestant groups) in autumn 1994. This ceasefire was partially a result of several years of contacts by between British and Irish governments. On 10 April 1998, a peace agreement was signed between the British government and Sinn Féin (acting as a proxy for the IRA)
Comment on Termination Date: According to the detailed Sutton battle-related death index, 24 people were killed in battle-related fights in 1992. Consequently, 31 December 1991 was the last date when the conflict was active. On 10 April 1998, a peace agreement was signed between the British government and Sinn Féin (acting as a proxy for the IRA)
1992 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: Less than 25 battle-related deaths occurred this year between the primary parties. Consequently, the conflict was not active in 1992. According to detailed sources, 24 battle-related deaths occurred. Seeing to this figure, it should be reminded that the conflict was very close to being classified as active. The violence between the paramilitaries continued throughout the year and resulted in a high death toll.
Comment on Yearly Battle Related Deaths: The sources used were very specific and credible. 20 representatives for the British government were killed by the IRA, while four IRA members were killed by the British troops and the RUC. In total, 84 deaths occurred as a result of the violence in Northern Ireland.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: No negotiations took place between the primary warring parties. During the first three months of the year, Peter Brooke, Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, held meetings with the leaders of the four political parties that had been participating in talks the previous year. On 11 April, Patrick Mayhew replaced Peter Brooke as Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. By the end of the same month, a break of the Anglo-Irish Intergovernmental Conference was announced in order to allow for the Brooke/Mayhew talks to recommence. In June, the four political parties involved in the talks started to work on Strand Two and Strand Three of the process, even though discussions on Strand One were at standstill (SEE NEG 1991). Representatives from the British and the Irish government also met to discuss an agenda for Strand Two. During a meeting in London in July, some progress was made as the two Unionist parties agreed to talk with Irish politicians. However, during the autumn, the DUP and later also the UUP withdrew from the Brooke/Mayhew talks and thereby brought the process to an end. Their action was provoked by the restart of the work of the Maryfield secretariat, set up as a result of the Anglo-Irish Agreement. In December, Mayhew gave a speech in which he said that Sinn Féin could be included in future talks if the IRA ended its violent campaign.
Third party involvement: YES
Third party involvement names: US President (candidate) Bill Clinton, Ireland
Comment on Third Party Involvement: During his election campaign, Clinton suggested a number of measures to be carried out in Northern Ireland. In April, Clinton gave a speech to the American-Irish Presidential Forum in New York. He undertook, if elected President, to: appoint a peace envoy to Northern Ireland; reverse the ban on Gerry Adams (the leader of Sinn Féin) entering the USA; support the MacBride Principles (a corporate code of conduct for US companies doing business in Northern Ireland, aiming at avoiding American discrimination of Protestants); and raise the issue of human rights violations with the British government. Earlier during the year, other signs of the pro-Catholic US attitude changing could be noticed. In February, a former member of the IRA was deported from the US to Northern Ireland.
The Irish state actively participated in the talks about Northern Irelands future, in efforts to regulate the behaviour and the incompatibility in the conflict. Thus, Ireland did not support the IRA in any way. On the other hand, Ireland could not be seen as having a completely neutral position in the incompatibility. According to its constitution (article 2 and 3), Ireland has a legal claim over all of its national territory - Northern Ireland included. Due to its connections to the origins of the conflict, the Irish state is seen as a biased third party.
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1993 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: Less than 25 battle-related deaths occurred this year between the primary parties. Consequently, the conflict was not active in 1993. According to detailed sources, 15 battle-related deaths occurred. The violence between the paramilitaries continued throughout the year and resulted in a high death toll.
Comment on Yearly Battle Related Deaths: The 17 battle-related deaths occurred to British soldiers, RUC policemen and civilians working for the military or the RUC. 1993 was the first year since 1969 where no cases were reported in which the British security forces killed people in disputed circumstances. In all, 86 died as a result of the Northern Irish conflict in 1993.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: No negotiations took place between the warring parties. Also, the formal political talks from the previous years were not restarted. Instead, informal and bilateral talks between several different parties increased. By the end of the year it was revealed that the British government, Sinn Féin and the IRA had had secret talks since February. The details of the talks were however not given. John Hume, leader for SDLP and Gerry Adams, leader for Sinn Féin met several times throughout the year. A Hume-Adams initiative, aiming at creating a peace process, was presented in September. The IRA issued a statement welcoming the Hume-Adams initiative. Parts of the initiative found its way into the Downing street declaration, which was the result of a series of meetings between John Major, British Prime Minister and Albert Reynolds, Irish Prime Minister. The Downing street declaration, presented 15 December, opened the doors for participation in political talks by all parties - Sinn Féin and the IRA included - that renounced violence. The Republican wordings the right of self-determination of the Irish people were employed together with the assertion that the constitutional status of Northern Ireland could only change if the majority of its people so wish. The declaration also contained the British government’s claims of lacking strategic interest in Northern Ireland and of being prepared to participate in the bringing about of a unified Ireland. Lastly, the Irish government said that it was be open about changing those paragraphs in the Irish constitution that concerned its legal claim over Northern Ireland. Sinn Féin responded by demanding more promises that the British government would act towards, not only talk about, the unification of Ireland. The IRA said that it would consider the Downing street declaration, but that it intended to continue their fight. The Unionist parties reacted by rejecting the possibility of participating in talks including Sinn Féin and the IRA,
Prime Minister Major, as well as Patrick Mayhew, Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, held several bilateral meetings with the leaders of those four Northern Irish political parties that had been involved in talks the previous years. Also the Irish Prime Minister met with the different parties. The increased contact between different parties during 1993 prepared the ground for further negotiations with the inclusion of Sinn Féin.
Third party involvement: YES
Third party involvement names: Ireland; Prime Minister Albert Reynolds, Deputy Prime Minister Dick Spring, the Opsahl Commission
Comment on Third Party Involvement: The Irish Prime Minister Albert Reynolds and Deputy Prime Minister Dick Spring, made several attempts to regulate the behaviour and the incompatibility in the conflict. In October, Spring outlined a proposal based on six democratic principles for Northern Ireland. The Irish government also carried out bilateral talks and presented the Downing Street declaration together with the British government. Bilateral talks were held with Northern Irelands political parties as well. Furthermore, Reynolds tried to convince the IRA to put down its weapons. However, Ireland could not be seen as having a completely neutral position in the incompatibility. Its constitution (article 2 and 3) still contained a legal claim over all of its national territory - Northern Ireland included, even though the government clearly was prepared to make changes of these articles. Due to its connections to the origins of the conflict, the Irish state could not be seen entirely as a third party.
The Opsahl Commission published its report A Citizens Inquiry. The Commission was established as part of Initiative 92 with the intention of seeking a wide range of views on the future of Northern Ireland.
In September, a American fact-finding group, led by Bruce Morrison held talks with Sinn Féin and other political leaders in Dublin and Belfast. On the other hand, there were no measures taken by President Bill Clinton as opposed to his promises the previous year.
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1994 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: Less than 25 battle-related deaths occurred this year between the primary parties. Consequently, the conflict was not active in 1994. According to one source, 17 battle-related deaths occurred.
Comment on Yearly Battle Related Deaths: The vast majority of the battle-related deaths occurred as a result of IRA violence, and targeted British soldiers and RUC policemen. Around 60 people died in the violence between the paramilitaries.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: No negotiations took place between the primary warring parties. However, Sinn Féin, the political party being closely allied with the IRA considered the Downing Street Declaration resulting from British-Irish talks the previous year. Sinn Féin were largely critical towards the document and considered it too unspecific. Secret talks took place between the British government and Sinn Féin in December. Even though the IRA declared a ceasefire on 31 August, the talks remained at standstill. The IRA refused to disarm, and the British government and the Unionist parties said no to including Sinn Féin in negotiations before a permanent and explicit rejection of the use of violence had been uttered on their behalf. Sinn Féin and the IRA, on their side, suspected that the British governments promises about talks were not sincere. In their view, decommissioning of the weapons could not start until after the negotiations had begun. The Irish government and John Hume, leader of the SDLP, had a more positive approach towards the IRA cease-fire. In October, John Major, the British Prime Minister, consented to hold exploratory talks with Sinn Féin before the end of the year. An official meeting took place between the British government and a Sinn Féin delegation (led by Martin McGuinness) in December. Nevertheless, no negotiations were initiated in 1994.
Third party involvement: YES
Third party involvement names: Ireland, American President Bill Clinton
Comment on Third Party Involvement: Ireland continued its involvement in finding a solution to the conflict. The Irish government carried out bilateral talks with the British government and with Northern Irelands political parties. Albert Reynolds, the Irish Prime Minister, pledged that there would be a referendum in both Northern Ireland and Ireland on any constitutional settlement. In December, the Irish government held meetings with the Unionist parties and the British government. After the IRAs declaration of a ceasefire, Reynolds openly showed his support for the groups decision. Despite these peace making efforts, Ireland could not be seen as having a completely neutral position in the incompatibility. Its constitution (article 2 and 3) still contained a legal claim over all of its national territory - Northern Ireland included, even though the government clearly was prepared to make changes of these articles. Due to its connections to the origins of the conflict, the Irish state could not be seen entirely as a third party. During the year, also the American President Bill Clinton began to show his interest for the situation in Northern Ireland. In January, he granted a visa for Gerry Adams, leader of Sinn Féin, to enter the USA to address a peace conference. While in the US, Adams met with senior US State Department officials, marking the first official contact between the United States government and Sinn Féin. By the end of the year Clinton announced that he was appointing George Mitchell, the former Senate majority leader, as a special economic adviser on Ireland from January 1995. Regardless of title, Mitchell was in effect the peace envoy Clinton had promised during his election campaign in April 1992. The US government also decided to expand the role of the US Agency for International Development in Northern Ireland.
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1995 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: No battle-related deaths occurred this year between the primary parties. Consequently, the conflict was not active in 1995.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: No negotiations took place between the warring parties. Patrick Mayhew, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, stressed once again that Sinn Féin could only enter into substantive negotiations when there was a willingness by the IRA to disarm progressively; when there was an agreement on the method of decommissioning; and when there had been a start to the process of decommissioning. These three conditions became known as the Washington 3 conditions. This statement signalled a period of deadlock over the issue of decommissioning of the IRA weapons. Meanwhile, secret, informal and later also official meetings were held between the British government and Sinn Féin. Meetings also took place between the British and Irish governments. In February, the Framework for Agreement was launched on the initiative of the two prime ministers. The Framework documents dealt with, among other things, North-South institutions. In November, the British and the Irish government issued a joint communiqué stating that they had launched a "twin-track" process to make progress in parallel on the decommissioning issue and on all-party negotiations". The governments hoped to have all-party negotiations begin by the end of February 1996. They also invited the parties to intensive preparatory talks. Furthermore, the governments undertook to establish an international body to provide an independent assessment of the decommissioning issue. George Mitchell, a former American Senator, was asked to lead this body.
Third party involvement: YES
Third party involvement names: Ireland, American President Bill Clinton, International Body on Decommissioning of Weapons: George Mitchell (American), John de Chastelain (Canadian), Harri Holkeri (Finnish).
Comment on Third Party Involvement: Ireland continued its involvement in finding a solution to the conflict. Irish Prime Minister John Bruton carried out bilateral talks with the British government. Together, the two governments launched the Framework for Agreement and a joint communiqué (SEE NEGOTIATIONS). Despite these peace making efforts, it was doubtful whether Ireland had a completely neutral position in the incompatibility. Its constitution (article 2 and 3) still contained a legal claim over all of its national territory - Northern Ireland included, even though the government clearly was prepared to make changes of these articles. Due to its connections to the origins of the conflict, the Irish state could not be seen entirely as a third party.
In November, the American President Bill Clinton visited Northern Ireland. Clinton gave a speech commenting on the latest agreement between the British and the Irish governments, the twin-track initiative. The American president also held talks with the leaders of the five main political parties in Northern Ireland. Through the twin-track initiative, Clintons special economic adviser on Ireland, George Mitchell, was appointed to lead the International Body on Decommissioning of Weapons. Together with John de Chastelain and Harri Holkeri, Mitchells task was to investigate the decommissioning issue further.
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1996 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: Less than 25 battle-related deaths occurred this year between the primary parties. Consequently, the conflict was not active in 1996. According to one source, 4 battle-related deaths occurred. In total, 14 deaths occurred related to the conflict situation in Northern Ireland during this year.
Comment on Yearly Battle Related Deaths: The IRA was responsible for causing all four deaths.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: No negotiations took place between the primary warring parties. On 24 January, the report of the International Body on Arms Decommissioning, the Mitchell report, was published. The Body suggested that decommissioning should be initiated parallel with the negotiations, instead of being a condition for participation in them. It was also suggested that the parties must adhere to the Mitchell principles: respect for democracy and negotiated agreements, renounce of the use of violence as well as commitment to total disarmament. The British Prime Minister, John Major, rejected the Mitchell report. Instead, an election was arranged for the 30 May, where the Northern Irish people could elect what parties should participate in the negotiations. Majors response to the Mitchell report resulted in the IRA breaking its ceasefire. On 10 June, the all-party negotiations began. Even if having been elected to join the negotiations, Sinn Féin was again excluded because of the absence of an IRA ceasefire. In the first round of negotiations, it was agreed that the Framework for Agreement (SEE NEG 1995) would be used as a point of departure, and that the negotiations should take place in three strands (SEE NEG 1991) However, the disagreement about the conditions for participation of Sinn Féin caused a standstill in the negotiations. At the same time, discord between the Unionist parties contributed to hampering progress towards addressing the substantive issues in the negotiations.
Third party involvement: YES
Third party involvement names: Ireland, American President Bill Clinton, International Body on Decommissioning of Weapons: George Mitchell (American), John de Chastelain (Canadian), Harri Holkeri (Finnish).
Comment on Third Party Involvement: Ireland continued its involvement in finding a solution to the conflict. Irish Prime Minister John Bruton carried out bilateral talks with the British government and with Sinn Féin. Dick Spring, Deputy Irish Prime Minister, met a number of the other Northern Irish parties. Despite these peace making efforts, it was doubtful whether Ireland had a completely neutral position in the incompatibility. Its constitution (article 2 and 3) still contained a legal claim over all of its national territory - Northern Ireland included, even though the government clearly was prepared to make changes of these articles. Due to its connections to the origins of the conflict, the Irish state could not be seen entirely as a third party.
George Mitchell, appointed to lead the International Body on Decommissioning of Weapons, was chairing the all-party talks. The Body presented its report and recommendations in January (SEE NEGOTIATIONS 1995) Also the Clinton administration remained actively involved in the peace process throughout they year. The US government made settling the Northern Ireland conflict a top priority and claimed to do all it could to keep the peace process on track. In December, during a meeting with the Irish prime minister, Clinton urged the IRA to declare a cease-fire and said that would pave the way for Sinn Fein to enter the ongoing peace talks. President Clinton also argued that substantive and inclusive negotiations are the only way to resolve Northern Irelands troubles.
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1997 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: Less than 25 battle-related deaths occurred this year between the primary parties. Consequently, the conflict was not active in 1997. According to one source, 3 battle-related deaths occurred. In total, 19 deaths occurred related to the conflict situation in Northern Ireland during this year.
Comment on Yearly Battle Related Deaths: One soldier and two RUC policemen were shot dead by the IRA. Another 16 deaths related to the conflict occurred, including killing of civilians and paramilitary revenge attacks.
Negotiations: YES
Comment on Negotiation: Negotiations took place between the primary warring parties for the first time this year, with Sinn Féin acting as an implicit proxy for the IRA. The peace talks were however on a standstill for the first six months of the year. The issue of whether the IRA must start decommissioning before Sinn Féin was let in to the negotiations was being discussed without any sign of progress. A change in the peace talks was brought about with the election of the Labour party in Britain. Tony Blair, new prime minister and Marjorie Mo Mowlan, new Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, visited Belfast in May. They promised that Sinn Féin after six weeks would be allowed into the negotiations even without the decommissioning having started, on condition that the IRA would call a new ceasefire. Blair also gave the go ahead for exploratory contacts between the British government and Sinn Féin. The IRA declared a new ceasefire on 20 July. A month later, Sinn Féin was invited to the peace talks. The party signed up to the Mitchell principles and entered the negotiation table. However, the DUP (the more hardline Unionist party) left the talks in protest. Also the UUP (the more moderate Unionist party) protested, but decided to participate in negotiations on condition that it was not forced to sit at the same table as the Sinn Féin representatives. On 24 September, the agreement on talks procedures was taken after having been discussed during a period of 16 months. The issue of decommissioning was side-stepped with the parties agreeing to move to "substantive issues" on 29 September. The substantive talks, which would take place in "three strands" (SEE NEGOTIATIONS 1991) began in October. A deadline for the negotiations, May 1998, was also established. Later the same month, Gerry Adams, leader of Sinn Féin and Martin McGuinness, vice-President of Sinn Féin, met Tony Blair for the first time. A Sinn Féin delegation was also invited to the Prime Ministers residence in December.
Third party involvement: YES
Third party involvement names: Ireland, American President Bill Clinton, the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning (IICD): John de Chastelain (Canadian), Tauno Nieminen (Finnish), Donald Johnson (American).
Comment on Third Party Involvement: Ireland continued its involvement in finding a solution to the conflict. In June, the Irish government issued proposals on decommissioning together with the British government. Later in the year, the British Prime Minister Blair and the Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern issued a joint appeal to all Unionists to join the multi-party talks. Despite these peace making efforts, it was doubtful whether Ireland had a completely neutral position in the incompatibility. Its constitution (article 2 and 3) still contained a legal claim over all of its national territory - Northern Ireland included, even though the government clearly was prepared to make changes of these articles. Due to its connections to the origins of the conflict, the Irish state could not be seen entirely as a third party. In August, the IICD was established to oversee the decommissioning of paramilitary weapons. British Prime Minister Blair was supportive of the earlier Mitchell report, suggesting that decommission could start parallel with negotiations. The purpose of establishing the IICD was to be able to deal with the crucial issue of decommission without blocking the negotiations. American President Clinton continued his active involvement in the Northern Irish peace process. Pressure was put on Sinn Féin and the IRA for there to be a permanent end to violence. Clinton continued to say publicly and privately to Sinn Fein that first they had to keep the ceasefire and that if they returned to violence, there would be consequences. The president also encouraged the Northern Irish political parties to reach an outcome firmly based on democratic principles. Clinton met with David Trimble, leader of the UUP (the moderate Unionist party). He then maintained that the ongoing talks were the last opportunity for the republican movement.
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
1998 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: In a bombing carried out by the real IRA, 28 people died. The bomb was intended to explode near the Omagh courthouse. Due to various circumstances, such as the terrorists being inexperienced, the bomb exploded near the market street instead. The attack caused the highest death toll in one and the same bombing since the conflict broke out.
Comment on Yearly Battle Related Deaths: All battle-related deaths in 1998 occurred in the Omagh bombing.
Negotiations: YES
Comment on Negotiation: Negotiations took place between the primary warring parties in the first dyad, with Sinn Féin continuing to act as an implicit proxy for the IRA. In the dyad the rIRA - British government, there was no dialogue. The British and the Irish government issued a concrete proposal for a peace agreement, the "Propositions of Heads of Agreement" to attempt impetus to the multi-party talks. Gerry Adams, leader of Sinn Féin, also had bilateral meetings with Tony Blair, British Prime Minister. Sinn Féin was suspended from the multi-party talks for two weeks because of the assessment of the RUC police that the IRA had been involved in the deaths of two civilians. On 6 April, George Mitchell, the independent chairman of the multi-party talks, gave his version of a possible draft agreement based on the Frameworks Document from 1995 and on the talks to that date. Four days later, on 10 April, all parties taking part in the negotiations signed the Good Friday Peace Agreement. Yet, talks and meetings continued after the agreement was signed and the Northern Irish Assembly elected. The main issue of discussion was the decommissioning of the paramilitary weapons. The parties disagreed strongly on whether the formation of a Northern Irish coalition government could take place before the decommissioning had started.
Third party involvement: YES
Third party involvement names: Ireland, American President Bill Clinton, George Mitchell, the IICD (International Independent Commission of Decommissioning)
Comment on Third Party Involvement: Ireland continued its involvement in finding a solution to the conflict. The Irish government issued together with the British government a a concrete proposal for a peace agreement, the "Propositions of Heads of Agreement". By preparing for removing those articles 2 and 3 in its constitution containing legal claim over all of its national territory - Northern Ireland included -, Ireland showed clearly that it wished to have no biased position in the incompatibility. American President Clinton continued his active involvement in the Northern Irish peace process. Clinton had regular telephone contact with party leaders and tried to encourage them to reach a settlement. Both George Mitchell and the IICD continued their tasks throughout the year. Mitchell acted as the independent chairman of the multi-party talks, while the IICD oversaw the issue of decommissioning paramilitary weapons.
Victory: NO
Terminated: YES
Type of termination: Ceasefire
Date of termination: 1998-08-18
Comment on Termination: The real IRA declared ceasefire following their bomb attack in Omagh. In a statement, the real IRA said "as a direct result of the Omagh tragedy and also in response to the appeals of Bertie Ahern (Irish prime minister) and others we are currently embarking on a process of consultation of our future direction.
Comment on Termination Date: The real IRA issued a statement telephoned to the Irish News in Belfast, declaring a ceasefire.
1999 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
2000 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
2001 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
2002 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
2003 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
2004 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
2005 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
2009 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
2011 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
2012 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
2016 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
2019 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
2021 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
