General information
Part of Conflict: Burundi: Government
Date of first stated goals of incompatibility: 2015-12-23
Comment on date of first stated goal of incompatibility: "Our goal is to drive out Nkurunziza by force to restore the Arusha accord and democracy," Edward Nshimirimana
Date of first use of armed force: 2015-12-11
Comment on date of first use of armed force: When FOREBU officially announced its formation on the 23 December 2015 they also claimed responsibility for the attacks on three military barracks on 11 December.
First Battle Related Death: 2015-12-11
Comment on First Battle Related Death: When FOREBU officially announced its formation on the 23 December 2015 they also claimed responsibility for the attacks on three military barracks on 11 December, the first death occurred in these events.
Date when dyad reached 25 battle releated deaths: 2015-12-11
Comment on date when dyad reached 25 battle related deaths: When FOREBU officially announced its formation on the 23 December 2015 they also claimed responsibility for the attacks on three military barracks on 11 December, leading to 79 FOREBU killed, 45 captured and 97 weapons seized, and eight soldiers and policemen were killed and 21 wounded according to the army spokesman. According to Human Rights Watch many of the dead FOREBU were infact local residents.
Conflict issues
Conflict Goal Issues: The FPB (Forces populaires du Burundi – Popular Forces of Burundi) was an armed group previously known as Forebu (Forces républicaines du Burundi – Republican Forces of Burundi) formed in 2015 with the overarching conflict goal of restoring democracy to Burundi by ousting president Nkurunziza and thereby hindering him from running a third term and disrespecting the Arusha agreement and the Burundian constitution. A statement sent to various news agencies by Edouard Nshimirimana, the previous director of communications of the Burundian army, reads, "Our goal is to drive out Nkurunziza by force to restore the Arusha accord and democracy." The initially raised conflict goal issues reflect the general theme of conflict goal issues communicated by the group. The FPB frequently emphasized that they fought for democracy, the upholding of the Burundian constitution, and the ousting of president Nkurunziza. Furthermore, the group also claimed to be fighting for the reform of the Burundian military and the upholding of the rule of law. A 2016 statement reads, "We are calling on all Burundians who believe in the rule of law to join us." Based on the issues most frequently raised by the FPB and to what extent they were emphasized, the primary conflict goal issues were the ousting of president Nkurunziza and the upholding of the democratic process, the Burundian constitution, and the rule of law.
Conflict Dynamics Issues: The project has located two statements by the group raising conflict dynamics issues that share the same theme. First, the FPB claimed to be fighting to protect the Burundian civilians and protesters who were being collectively targeted, abused, and killed by the government because of their political stance against Nkurunziza running for a third term as president. Second, a statement by one of the group leaders in 2017 lifts armed resistance as the only way to stop the atrocities committed by the regime and accused them of continuing to "…kill, torture, imprison and force into exile all who dare to oppose…". Thus, based on the located conflict dynamics issues, the FPB's main conflict dynamics issues was the collective targeting of civilians and political opponents.
Conflict Resolution Issues: The initial conflict resolution issue raised by the FPB in 2015 was the upholding and re-implementation of the Arusha accord, which they accused Nkurunziza of violating by running for a third term. The conflict resolution issue of reinstating the agreements settled during the Arusha Agreement continued to be central to the movement's cause during the years of active conflict. Furthermore, the remaining statements regarding conflict resolution issues all concerned the structure and timing of negotiations. In statements from 2017, FPB called for negotiations and stated that dialogue was the only way forward. The movement vowed to continue to use force until the government recognized them and included them in negotiations and inclusive peace talks. However, in a different statement from 2016, one of the group leaders stated that the group opposed peace talks and would only accept the ousting of president Nkurunziza and his regime. Conclusively, based and the frequency and emphasis of the FPB's statements, the re-implementation of the Arusha accords, and the structure and timing of negotiations can be considered the movement's primary conflict resolution issues.
Type of conflict issues: Conflict Goal Issues: Constitutional issues, CPS: Democracy, Oust head of the executive, Reform judicial system, Restructure military forces, Rule of law
Conflict Dynamics Issues: Collective targeting: political
*Conflict Resolution Issues: Call for negotiations, Opposition to negotiations, Peace agreement implementation, Structure of negotiations
Annual information
This section contains annual information systematically collected by the UCDP.
1998
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Secondary Warring Support:
Side A (Government of Burundi): n/a
Side B (FPB): n/a
2015
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 96 |
| Best | 96 |
| Low | 96 |
Secondary Warring Support:
Side A (Government of Burundi): n/a
Side B (FPB): n/a
2016
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 10 |
| Best | 8 |
| Low | 8 |
Secondary Warring Support:
Side A (Government of Burundi): n/a
Side B (FPB): n/a
2017
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Secondary Warring Support:
Side A (Government of Burundi): n/a
Side B (FPB): n/a
2019
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Secondary Warring Support:
Side A (Government of Burundi): Government of DR Congo (Zaire)
Side B (FPB): n/a
Dyad Archive
This section contains annual information no longer systematically collected by the UCDP.
1998 Dyad Archive
Negotiations: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
2015 Dyad Archive
Comment on Active: The Government of Burundi and the rebel formation that became FPB/FOREBU entered into open armed confrontation in late 2015, after months of political crisis over President Pierre Nkurunziza’s third‑term bid. On 11 December, armed groups had attacked several military camps in and around Bujumbura. In the aftermath of the barracks attacks, security forces carried out arrests and hard‑line counter‑measures in the capital and rural Bujumbura, during which individuals perceived as opponents of the third term, such as residents in areas near Mujejuru camp, were reported killed following police round‑ups.
On 23 December 2015, former army and police officers who had participated in the failed coup earlier that year publicly announced the creation of Les Forces Républicaines du Burundi (FOREBU), later renamed FPB, and claimed responsibility for the 11 December attacks. Led by former senior officer Edouard Nshimirimana and drawing largely on defectors from the security forces and other armed opposition elements, FOREBU/FPB declared its objective to remove President Nkurunziza by force and to defend the Arusha Agreement, presenting itself as a force to “protect the population” and opposing what it depicted as violations of the peace accords.
Negotiations: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: YES
Type of termination: No or Low Activity
Date of termination: 2015-12-31
Comment on Termination: In late 2015, reports indicated that the group maintained an armed presence in rural Bujumbura province, with several hundred to around a thousand fighters equipped with small arms, machine guns and rocket‑propelled grenades, as confrontation with state forces continued in the wider context of the political and security crisis.
2016 Dyad Archive
Comment on Active: In 2016 The Government of Burundi - FPB/FOREBU dyad was not active. FPB/FOREBU’s actions in 2016 consisted mainly of sporadic armed attacks and targeted killings rather than sustained large‑scale engagements, the group continued operating in and around Bujumbura in the context of the post-third term violence.
Negotiations: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
2017 Dyad Archive
Comment on Active: On 27 August 2017 FOREBU was renamed FPB (Forces populaires du Burundi, Popular Forces of Burundi) as part of a wider re-organisation, the group maintained that their objectives had not changed.
Negotiations: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
2019 Dyad Archive
Negotiations: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
