General information
Type of Incompatibility: Government
Date of first stated goal of incompatibility: 2014-11-09
Comment on date of first stated goals of incompatibility: In a tweet in November 2014, Ayatollah Khamenei described how Israel should be "eliminated." While the rhetoric of destruction and elimination was congruent with the rhetoric in the past, all of the statements were subject to controversy: language suggestive of destruction was clouded in metaphorical interpretations. However, in the tweet, Khamenei calls for a referendum in the territories under Israeli influence, i.e., Israel, the West Bank and Gaza to determine what type of regime the population wants, while qualifying that the Jewish migrants, the non-original population of that territory, should not be allowed to participate in the territory. While this rhetorical sleight of hand is, again, in line with previous statements and would not qualify for the first stated goal of incompatibility, according to the UCDP, a qualifying statement later in the tweet changes that: Khamenei states that the only way to resist Israel is through armed resistance. This call to arms qualifies as an incompatibility in the UCDP sense.
Date of first use of armed force: 2018-02-10
Comment on first use of armed force: Israeli warplanes targeted the outskirts of T4 Airport from the side of Al-Bayyarat area in Homs Desert, in which Iranian forces, the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Syrian government forces were located, with the aim of destroying ground-to-air defence systems.
Date of first battle related death: 2017-03-19
Comment on first battle related death: The Israeli air force targeted a military base on Syrian territory. Iranian forces were among the troops operating at the T4 base in Homs governorate, Syria.
Date of conflict reached 25 battle releated deaths: 2018-04-29
Comment on conflict reached 25 battle releated deaths: Following an airstrike by the Israeli air force targeting a military base in Hama governorate, Syria, a large number of Iranian soldiers died. In line with previous and subsequent operations by the Israeli air force, weapons depots and air defense systems were targeted, which were operated mainly by Iranian forces. UCDP recorded that at least 26 people were killed on 29 April 2018.
Annual information
This section contains annual information systematically collected by the UCDP.
2011
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Interstate
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2014
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Interstate
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2015
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Interstate
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2017
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Interstate
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 2 |
| Best | 2 |
| Low | 2 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2018
Primary Parties: Government of Iran - Government of Israel
Dimension: Interstate
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 127 |
| Best | 111 |
| Low | 111 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2019
Primary Parties: Government of Iran - Government of Israel
Dimension: Interstate
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 153 |
| Best | 138 |
| Low | 113 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2020
Primary Parties: Government of Iran - Government of Israel
Secondary Warring Parties Side B: Government of United States of America
Dimension: Interstate
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 473 |
| Best | 461 |
| Low | 398 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2021
Primary Parties: Government of Iran - Government of Israel
Secondary Warring Parties Side B: Government of United States of America
Dimension: Interstate
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 176 |
| Best | 166 |
| Low | 161 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2022
Primary Parties: Government of Iran - Government of Israel
Secondary Warring Parties Side B: Government of United States of America
Dimension: Interstate
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 92 |
| Best | 56 |
| Low | 56 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2023
Primary Parties: Government of Iran - Government of Israel
Secondary Warring Parties Side B: Government of United States of America
Dimension: Interstate
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 160 |
| Best | 160 |
| Low | 160 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2024
Primary Parties: Government of Iran - Government of Israel
Secondary Warring Parties Side B: Government of United States of America
Dimension: Interstate
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 549 |
| Best | 549 |
| Low | 548 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2025
Primary Parties: Government of Iran - Government of Israel
Secondary Warring Parties Side B: Government of United States of America
Dimension: Interstate
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 1224 |
| Best | 1222 |
| Low | 1094 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
Conflict Archive
This section contains annual information no longer systematically collected by the UCDP.
2011 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
2014 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
2015 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
2017 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
2018 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: In 2018, Israel carried out targeted strikes against Hezbollah in Syria and against Iranian positions operated by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in Syria. These positions, mainly weapon depots and air-defense systems, were located in several Syrian governorates. This signified a change from combating Iran's proxy to targeting Iranian troops directly. As a result, the interstate conflict between the Government of Iran and the Government of Israel became active for the first time in the UCDP data.
Terminated: NO
2019 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The interstate conflict between the Government of Iran and the Government of Israel kept being active in 2019, after being active for the first time in the previous year. The Israeli forces hit Iranian posts in several governorates of Syria, primarily the weapon and ammunition depots as well as the intelligence centers of the Iranian forces.
Terminated: NO
2020 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The interstate conflict between the Government of Iran and the Government of Israel kept being active in 2020. The Israeli forces hit Iranian posts in several governorates of Syria, primarily the weapon and ammunition depots as well as the intelligence centers of the Iranian forces. In 2020, the United States acted as a secondary warring party to Israel in the conflict after outrage over the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' support for proxy militias that conducted attacks on Israel and the US presence in the Middle East.
Terminated: NO
2021 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The interstate conflict between the Government of Iran and the Government of Israel remained active in 2021. The Israeli forces hit Iranian posts in several governorates of Syria, particularly Deir ez Zor. They primarily targeted Iranian weapons and ammunition depots, along with intelligence centers. Meanwhile, the United States maintained its role as a secondary warring party to Israel in 2021.
Terminated: NO
2022 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
2023 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
2024 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: The interstate conflict between the Government of Iran and the Government of Israel remained active in 2024. The Israeli forces hit Iranian posts in several governorates of Syria. They primarily targeted Iranian weapons and ammunition depots, along with intelligence centers. Meanwhile, the United States maintained its role as a secondary warring party to Israel.
Terminated: NO
2025 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: In 2025, the interstate conflict between the Government of Iran and the Government of Israel escalated into direct interstate warfare in June, during the so-called Twelve Day War. Israel carried out extensive strikes against military and nuclear targets in Iran, while Iran launched large-scale missile and drone attacks against Israel. The fighting ended with a ceasefire on 24 June, but tensions between the two countries remained high throughout the remainder of the year.
Terminated: NO
