General information
Part of Conflict: Afghanistan: Islamic State
Date of first stated goals of incompatibility: 2015-01-26
Comment on date of first stated goal of incompatibility: The Islamic State (IS) has its origins in Iraq (for more information about the group see Iraq: Islamic State). In late June 2014, IS announced that it had established a caliphate in parts of Syrian and Iraq. The leader of the group, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was appointed caliph. Sharia law was imposed in areas under its control and governors (wālī, or wulāt in plural) were appointed for different geographical locations.
During the autumn of 2014, several groups pledged allegiance, bay’ah, to IS. On 13 November 2014, al-Baghdadi accepted the bay’ah from groups based in Yemen, Libya, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. IS stated that by accepting the pledges from the groups, al-Baghdadi became “the imam and khalīfah for the Muslims everywhere”. Furthermore, it stated that the “legality of all emirates, groups, states, and organizations, becomes null by the expansion of the khilāfah’s authority and arrival of its troops to their areas”.
During 2014, reports emerged of the presence of the IS in Afghanistan and Pakistan. By the end of the year, some local commanders had pledged allegiance (bay’ah) to IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
On 10 January 2015, six former TTP (Tehrik-I Taliban Pakistan) leaders released a video in which they again pledged allegiance to IS and nominated Hafiz Khan Saeed as the leader of the group. Two weeks later, on 26 January, IS accepted the bay’ah. In the official audio statement “Say, Die in your rage!”, the IS spokesman Abu Muhammad al-Adnani announced the expansion of the Islamic State, creating Wilayah Khorasan (Khorasan Province). Khorasan refers to an historical region covering parts of modern-day Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The statement appointed Hafiz Khan Saeed as Khorasan Province’s governor (wali), and Mullah Abdul Rauf as his deputy.
Date of first use of armed force: 2015-02-09
Comment on date of first use of armed force: The first event that has been possible to connect to the IS in Khorasan took place in early February 2015, when a US drone targeted the deputy leader of the IS in Afghanistan, Mullah Abdul Rauf, in Hilmand province. Six militants, including the deputy leader, were killed in the attack.
First Battle Related Death: 2015-02-09
Comment on First Battle Related Death: In early February 2015, a US drone targeted the deputy leader of the IS in Afghanistan, Mullah Abdul Rauf, in Hilmand province. Six militants, including the deputy leader, were killed in the attack.
Date when dyad reached 25 battle releated deaths: 2015-03-03
Comment on date when dyad reached 25 battle related deaths: IS grew stronger in Afghanistan during the first months of 2015, and by early March fighting between the Afghan government, supported by US airstrikes, and IS Khorasan had resulted in at least 25 battle-related deaths.
Conflict issues
Conflict Goal Issues: Islamic State, al-Dawla al-Islamiya, (IS) was a Salafist-Sunni Islamist global rebel group that emerged in Iraq and Syria in 2004. The group originally emerged with the goals of toppling the Iraqi regime and replacing the government with an Islamic state with Sharia law as well as ousting the occupying forces currently residing in the country, but its goals drastically shifted as it grew in size to wish to establish a global Islamic caliphate governed by Sharia law. Whilst the group was international for the majority of its existence, IS is considered a rebel group involved in several dyads as the group fought against, and attempted to overthrow, several individual governments as part of its international aims, and has been coded as such. However, many IS statements were not pertaining to specific countries, and the project has, hence, chosen to code them as pertaining to all countries with significant IS presence. Finally, whilst various groups have claimed allyship and adherence to IS, only statements from official IS groups have been coded by the project as legitimate sources for interpreting conflict issues. The Afghanistan-IS dyad became active in 2015, following its declaration of intent to establish a global caliphate, and the group pronounced several conflict goal issues during its first active year. During this year, they stated its intent in reclaiming ‘the land of Khorasan’ (an area encompassing parts of Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Pakistan, and Afghanistan) calling for the establishment of jihad and the Shariah. Apart from changing the political and judicial system in Afghanistan, and Khorasan as a whole, the group also called for the restriction of non-Muslim religious rights: "Know that the Islamic Caliphate is not limited to a particular country. These young men will fight against every disbeliever, whether in the west, east, south, or north."
As the conflict progressed, IS would continuously emphasize its intent to establish an Islamic State in Afghanistan and Khorasan and frequently mentioned its discontent with ‘apostates’ (Muslims who do not adhere to Islamic faith) calling for the religious rights of non-Muslims to be restricted. In 2017, the last coded year of conflict, the group also called for Muslim religious rights to be respected and for the ousting of, among others, the Afghan government. Apart from its first year of existence, IS were not interpreted as reemphasizing its intent to establish Sharia law, although this does not imply intentions to not do so, as Sharia law was continuously emphasized as a vital part of the establishment of an Islamic State by IS in other countries.
Throughout the coded conflict, IS continuously noted its intentions to establish an Islamic State in Afghanistan and Khorasan and called for the restriction of religious rights of non-believers and apostates. These are to be considered the main conflict goal issues of the group, as they were also continuously stated with heavy emphasis.
Conflict Dynamics Issues: During the first year of conflict, IS released one statement pertaining to conflict dynamics issues against the Afghan state. They called for the removal of foreign influence from Khorasan, particularly mentioning "the crusaders, the Jews and tyrants." This also indicates calls for collective targeting of Jewish people and of occupiers in Afghanistan.
These issues were stated once more each as the conflict progressed. The group also called for the collective targeting of people who supported the Afghan government. Finally, IS called for the withdrawal of foreign military intervention as it stated its plan to "clear the sacred land of Khorasan of apostate hirelings of CIA, ISI and KGB intelligence networks."
Whilst certain issues were pronounced continuously through the conflict, no main conflict dynamics issue was interpreted for IS in this particular dyad as no issue was particularly emphasized in communications.
Conflict Resolution Issues: The project coded no statements from IS in Afghanistan pertaining to conflict resolution issues.
Type of conflict issues: Conflict Goal Issues: Change judicial system, CPS: Islamic state, Oust full executive, Religious rights, Restrictions on religious rights
Conflict Dynamics Issues: Call for collective targeting: political, Call for collective targeting: religious, DFI: Removal of foreign influence, DFI: Withdrawal of military intervention/foreign forces
Conflict Resolution Issues:
Annual information
This section contains annual information systematically collected by the UCDP.
2014
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Secondary Warring Support:
Side A (Government of Afghanistan): n/a
Side B (IS): n/a
2015
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 855 |
| Best | 679 |
| Low | 615 |
Secondary Warring Support:
Side A (Government of Afghanistan): Government of United States of America, Government of Pakistan
Side B (IS): n/a
2016
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 2544 |
| Best | 2141 |
| Low | 2100 |
Secondary Warring Support:
Side A (Government of Afghanistan): Government of United States of America, Government of Pakistan
Side B (IS): n/a
2017
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 3009 |
| Best | 2795 |
| Low | 2738 |
Secondary Warring Support:
Side A (Government of Afghanistan): Government of United States of America
Side B (IS): n/a
2018
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 5149 |
| Best | 2842 |
| Low | 2770 |
Secondary Warring Support:
Side A (Government of Afghanistan): Government of United States of America
Side B (IS): n/a
2019
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 1435 |
| Best | 1075 |
| Low | 1045 |
Secondary Warring Support:
Side A (Government of Afghanistan): Government of United States of America
Side B (IS): n/a
2020
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 356 |
| Best | 316 |
| Low | 279 |
Secondary Warring Support:
Side A (Government of Afghanistan): Government of United States of America
Side B (IS): n/a
2021
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 322 |
| Best | 264 |
| Low | 206 |
Secondary Warring Support:
Side A (Government of Afghanistan): Government of United States of America
Side B (IS): n/a
2022
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 411 |
| Best | 258 |
| Low | 181 |
Secondary Warring Support:
Side A (Government of Afghanistan): n/a
Side B (IS): n/a
2023
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 238 |
| Best | 163 |
| Low | 109 |
Secondary Warring Support:
Side A (Government of Afghanistan): n/a
Side B (IS): n/a
2024
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 155 |
| Best | 105 |
| Low | 76 |
Secondary Warring Support:
Side A (Government of Afghanistan): n/a
Side B (IS): n/a
2025
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 85 |
| Best | 56 |
| Low | 27 |
Secondary Warring Support:
Side A (Government of Afghanistan): n/a
Side B (IS): n/a
Dyad Archive
This section contains annual information no longer systematically collected by the UCDP.
2014 Dyad Archive
Terminated: NO
2015 Dyad Archive
Comment on Active: On 26 January 2015, IS officially announced the creation of Wilayat Khorasan, Khorasan province, in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Former TTP commander Hafiz Khan Saeed was appointed the group's governor, and former Taleban commander Mullah Abdol Rauf Ahmadi his deputy. However, Abdol Rauf was killed in a US drone strike in early February.
IS recruited most of its members from the Taleban movement and other groups operating in the border area between Afghanistan and Pakistan. In August, the originally Uzbek group IMU, which had been fighting under the Taleban for many years, pledged allegiance to IS and announced that they were now members of the Khorasan province.
Besides fighting the Afghan government, IS was also involved in numerous clashes against the Taleban, trying to take control over territory in the eastern parts of the country. During the second half of 2015 they managed to seize parts of Achin district in Nangarhar, an area in which they have continued to be strong. By the end of the year, IS had also set up its own radio station in Nangarhar province, the "Voice of the Caliphate".
One of the most fatal attacks carried out by IS in Afghanistan during 2015 was a suicide attack outside a bank in Jalalabad city in April. The group striked when government employees were collecting their salaries, killing at least 32 people.
Negotiations: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
2016 Dyad Archive
Comment on Active: Fighting between the Afghan government, supported by US airstrikes, and IS escalated in 2016, causing at least 2000 fatalities. The group was also involved in clashes against the Taleban, trying to take control over areas in the east.
Negotiations: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
2017 Dyad Archive
Terminated: NO
2018 Dyad Archive
Comment on Active: Fighting between the government of Afghanistan, supported by US airstrikes, and IS continued on a high level in 2018, causing at least 2800 fatalities. IS was pushed back in parts of Nangarhar province and there were signs of the group being weakened in their previous strongholds. Increasingly turning to 'soft targets', however, IS carried out several large-scale suicide attacks during the year, both against state installations but also targeting civilians. In August 2018, the IS-Khorasan emir Abu Saad Erhabi was killed in an Afghan-US joint operation. This was the fourth local leader of the group to die since the start of the conflict in Afghanistan.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiations: No negotiations took place in this conflict during the year
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
Type of termination: Not terminated
2019 Dyad Archive
Comment on Active: Fighting between the government of Afghanistan, supported by US airstrikes, and IS continued in 2019, but on a lower level, causing just over 1,000 fatalities. IS was pushed back in parts of Nangarhar province and there were signs of the group being weakened in their previous strongholds. Increasingly turning to 'soft targets', however, IS carried out several large-scale suicide attacks during the year, both against state installations but also targeting civilians. Many attacks were directed towards the Shiite community in Kabul city.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiations: No negotiations took place in this conflict during the year
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
Type of termination: Not terminated
2020 Dyad Archive
Comment on Active: Fighting between the government of Afghanistan, supported by US airstrikes, and IS continued in 2020, but on a lower level, and for the first time since 2015 the conflict did not reach the intensity level of war, as fatalities did not pass the threshold of 1,000 battle-related deaths. Increasingly turning to 'soft targets', however, IS carried out several large-scale suicide attacks during the year, both against state installations but also targeting civilians. Many attacks were directed towards the Shiite community in Kabul city.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiations: No negotiations took place in this conflict during the year
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
Type of termination: Not terminated
2021 Dyad Archive
Comment on Active: Fighting between the government of Afghanistan, supported by US airstrikes, and IS continued in 2021, but on a lower level. IS intensified its attacks following the Taleban victory on 15 August 2021, increasingly targeting Taleban security forces in both Nangarhar and Kabul. IS also continued to carry out large-scale suicide attacks during the year, both against state installations but also targeting civilians. Many attacks were directed towards the Shiite community in Kabul city.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiations: No negotiations took place in this conflict during the year
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
Type of termination: Not terminated
2022 Dyad Archive
Comment on Active: IS continued to fight the Taleban regime in 2022, attacking Taleban members in several areas of the country. Most attacks took place in Nangarhar and Kabul, but there was also fighting in provinces such as Herat and Takhar.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiations: No negotiations took place in this conflict during the year.
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
Type of termination: Not terminated
2023 Dyad Archive
Terminated: NO
2024 Dyad Archive
Negotiations: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
Type of termination: Not terminated
2025 Dyad Archive
Negotiations: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
Type of termination: Not terminated