General information
Type of Incompatibility: Government and Territory
Territory: Crimea
Date of first stated goal of incompatibility: 2014-02-23
Comment on date of first stated goals of incompatibility: Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his special services and the defence ministry to 'begin the work to bring Crimea back into Russia' on 23 February 2014, according to his own account.
At the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that the goal of the 'special military operation' was to 'demilitarise and denazify Ukraine' in order to stop the Ukrainian nationalists from trying to 'bring war to Crimea just as they have done in Donbass'. He further declared that Russia would support the 'right to self-determination' of 'all the peoples living in today’s Ukraine[...] to make a free choice[...] in favour of being with their historical homeland, Russia'.
Date of first use of armed force: 2014-02-27
Comment on first use of armed force: On 27 February, unidentified armed men seized the local parliament and local government buildings in Crimea, raising the Russian flag. Among them were regular Russian soldiers without military insignia, who were later dubbed the "little green men".
Date of first battle related death: 2014-03-18
Comment on first battle related death: One Ukrainian soldier and a Russian paramilitary member were killed during a raid by pro-Russian forces on a Ukrainian military base in the city of Simferopol, in the recently occupied Crimea. The attack occurred on 18 March, the same day that Crimea was formally annexed by Russia.
Date of conflict reached 25 battle releated deaths: 2022-02-24
Comment on conflict reached 25 battle releated deaths: In the morning of 24 February 2022 Russia began a full-scale assault on Ukraine. By the end of the day, 150-500 people had been killed.
Annual information
This section contains annual information systematically collected by the UCDP.
2013
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Interstate
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2014
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Interstate
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 3 |
| Best | 3 |
| Low | 3 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2015
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Interstate
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2016
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Interstate
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 2 |
| Best | 2 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2017
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Interstate
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2020
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Interstate
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2021
Primary Parties: -
Dimension: Interstate
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 0 |
| Best | 0 |
| Low | 0 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2022
Primary Parties: Government of Russia (Soviet Union) - Government of Ukraine
Dimension: Interstate
Comment on Dimension: Although more than 50 countries have provided military, financial, and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, no country has provided secondary warring support in the form of combat troops on the ground. There have been allegations of both Belarusian and Iranian troops on the ground supporting Russia, but these reports have been denied by the respective countries.
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 172537 |
| Best | 99658 |
| Low | 72639 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2023
Primary Parties: Government of Russia (Soviet Union) - Government of Ukraine
Dimension: Interstate
Comment on Dimension: Although more than 50 countries have provided military, financial, and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, no country has provided secondary warring support in the form of combat troops on the ground. There have been allegations of both Belarusian and Iranian troops on the ground supporting Russia, but these reports have been denied by the respective countries.
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 135838 |
| Best | 76958 |
| Low | 71769 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2024
Primary Parties: Government of Russia (Soviet Union) - Government of Ukraine
Secondary Warring Parties Side A: Government of North Korea
Dimension: Interstate
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 126998 |
| Best | 102120 |
| Low | 80950 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
2025
Primary Parties: Government of Russia (Soviet Union) - Government of Ukraine
Secondary Warring Parties Side A: Government of North Korea
Dimension: Interstate
| Estimated Fatalities | |
|---|---|
| High | 140890 |
| Best | 94742 |
| Low | 87322 |
Numbers include fatalities for all dyads both active and inactive for this year
Conflict Archive
This section contains annual information no longer systematically collected by the UCDP.
2013 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
2014 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
2015 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
2016 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
2017 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
2020 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
2021 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
2022 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: Following a period of heighten tension, military buildups, and diplomatic threats, Russia began a full-scale assault on Ukraine on February 24 2022. The Russian government claimed the 'special military operation' aimed to ‘de-nazify’ and ‘de-militarize’ Ukraine, in an attempt to justify what was an unprovoked full-scale invasion of a neighboring country. Russian battle groups around Ukraine crossed the border and began an invasion with the probable goal of capturing Kyiv, toppling the government, and occupying most, if not all, of Ukraine. Despite having a smaller military than its attacker, Ukraine managed to halt the Russian advances in the coming days. Weeks into the war, Russian forces were still unable to advance in northern Ukraine, forcing Russia to retreat from its positions north of Kyiv and Kharkiv as Ukrainian forces pushed back. However, in the south Russia was able to capture large areas as it advanced towards the Black Sea-city of Mariupol from the east and the west. A three-month long siege on Mariupol led to the killing of tens of thousands of civilians as well as Russian and Ukrainian soldiers.
Its apparent inability of advancing in northern Ukraine prompted Russia to focus on capturing more territory in eastern Ukraine. An offensive in Luhansk during the summer pushed Ukrainian forces out of Luhansk oblast (province). In late August 2022, Ukraine announced that it had initiated a counteroffensive in Kherson. Russia responded by moving troops and equipment to the southern Kherson front, leaving troops in the northeast thinly spread. On 6 September 2022, Ukraine launched a major counteroffensive in the Kharkiv oblast in the northeast. Taking the remaining Russian forces by surprise, Ukraine managed to regain control of most of the occupied territory in Kharkiv during the first few days of the offensive. As Ukraine reclaimed areas that Russia had temporarily occupied, reports of widespread violence against civilians committed by Russia became available. In Kherson, Ukrainian successes were initially slower than in the northeast, but in early October, Ukrainian forces started to advance rapidly along the Dniepr, putting Russian supply lines at risk. Fighting its way southwest towards Kherson city, Ukrainian troops finally entered the provincial capital on 11 November, after Russian forces had withdrawn from the city the previous day. After the Russian retreat from Kherson and Kharkiv, fighting intensified heavily around the small town of Bakhmut in eastern Donetsk oblast. The Battle of Bakhmut became the bloodiest and longest battle of the war in 2022.
During the year, numerous countries have provided major military and humanitarian support to Ukraine, which changed the course of the conflict.
Comment on Yearly Battle Related Deaths: Military deaths during the war have been subject to extensive propaganda and misinformation. The UCDP best estimate includes about 30 500 members of Russia’s military and militias, 13 500 Ukrainian military personnel, 19 000 civilians and 19 000 of unknown identity, the vast majority of which are likely to be civilians, as almost 17 000 of these were recorded in Mariupol. UCDP’s high estimate for Ukraine is almost double its current best estimate.
Negotiations: YES
Comment on Negotiation: During the first month of the war, Russia and Ukraine held several rounds of talks, without reaching any agreement. The main goal of the talks was the cessation of hostilities and to facilitate humanitarian corridors. Russia continued to push for Ukraine adopting a neutral status and not to join NATO, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that any peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia must include Ukraine's demilitarization. Following the Russian annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson in September 2022, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine was officially applying for NATO membership and said that there could be no negotiations with Russia as long as Putin remained President. In January 2023, Putin's press secretary said that there were no prospects for settling the conflict through diplomacy.
Third party involvement: YES
Third party involvement names: Turkey
Comment on Third Party Involvement: Turkey hosted and mediated peace talks between delegations from Ukraine and Russia in March 2022.
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
Type of termination: Not terminated
2023 Conflict Archive
Comment on Activity: Following a period of heighten tension, military buildups, and diplomatic threats, Russia began a full-scale assault on Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Throughout 2023, the conflict persisted with unabated intensity.
During the first months of the year, the Battle of Bakhmut caused tens of thousands of deaths. Fighting in and around the small town of Bakhmut in eastern Donetsk oblast has been described as a meat grinder, a quagmire of carnage, and as resembling World War I. The main force fighting for Russia in Bakhmut was the Wagner group, a private military company led by Yevgeny Prigozhin. According to Prigozhin, the Wagner group had recruited 50 000 convicts from Russian prisons to fight in Ukraine, of which at least 10 000 died in the battles. In addition, 10 000 of the contracted fighters were killed. Following heavy fighting, Prigozhin announced that his forces had captured the central part of the town on 20 May 2023, and that they would hand over control to regular Russian troops by early June.
After months of planning and speculations about when and where a Ukrainian counteroffensive would be launched, Ukraine begun its summer offensive in June 2023. Focusing on the southeastern frontlines in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions, Ukrainian troops met strong Russian defense lines in these areas. Boosted by weapons, equipment, and training from its western allies, Ukraine aimed to break through the Russian defense lines and secure access to Russian-occupied cities of Melitopol and Berdyansk. The overarching strategy aimed to reach the Sea of Azov, effectively dividing the Russian troops stationed in southern Ukraine. Despite these efforts, Ukrainian forces encountered significant obstacles and failed to achieve notable progress.
Fighting also continued on the southern Dnipro (Dnieper) front. In early June 2023, the Kakhovka Dam was destroyed, flooding large parts of the Dnipro delta in Kherson region. Russia was widely accused of blowing up the dam to hinder Ukrainian advances across the river, a claim denied by Russia. By the end of 2023, Ukrainian troops had crossed the river into Russian-controlled territory, and heavy fighting was going on around the village of Krynky in Kherson region.
In October 2023, Russia intensified its assault on Avdiivka, a small city just north of the regional capital Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. Serving as a gateway to Donetsk city, Avdiivka had a strategic value and was heavily fortified. Although intermittent fighting had been ongoing in the area since the onset of the war, October 2023 saw the initiation of one of the bloodiest battles of the entire war. After four months of fierce fighting, resulting in heavy death tolls for both sides, Ukrainian troops withdrew from the city in mid-February 2024. This was the most important Russian territorial victory since the capture of Bakhmut in May 2023.
Comment on Yearly Battle Related Deaths: Military deaths during the war have been subject to extensive propaganda and misinformation. Consequently, UCDP’s high estimate for Ukraine is double its current best estimate.
Negotiations: NO
Comment on Negotiation: Following the Russian annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson in September 2022, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine was officially applying for NATO membership and said that there could be no negotiations with Russia as long as Putin remained President. In January 2023, Putin's press secretary said that there were no prospects for settling the conflict through diplomacy. In June 2023, Zelenskyy said that peace talks with Russia would be possible only after Moscow withdraws its forces from the entire occupied territory. "To allow any negotiations with Russia now while the occupier is on our land is to freeze the war, to freeze everything: pain and suffering," "We need real peace, and therefore, a real withdrawal of Russian troops from our entire independent land."
Third party involvement: NO
Victory: NO
Terminated: NO
Type of termination: Not terminated
2024 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
2025 Conflict Archive
Terminated: NO
