UCDP Newsletter #5

Welcome to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) Newsletter!

 

I am glad to announce that UCDP released the UCDP Candidate Events Dataset (UCDP Candidate) version 22.01.22.06, covering the first half of 2022. As you might know, UCDP Candidate is based on UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset (UCDP GED), but published at a monthly release cycle. It makes available monthly releases of candidate events data with not more than a month’s lag globally. You may see the codebook for similarieties and differences between the two products.

 

UCDP data show that the intensity of organized violence worldwide remained high, with nearly 55 thousand fatalities in the first half of 2022. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022 led the trends in Europe to dominate the fatality estimates. Moreover, the regional shift of organized violence from the Middle East to the African continent continued throughout the first half of 2022. Violence in Asia decreased considerably after the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan. Read more on the trends in the first half of 2022 below.

 

Please feel free to contact us via ucdp@pcr.uu.se if you have any questions, suggestions, or comments.

Sincerely,

Magnus Öberg

UCDP Director

Mert Can Yilmaz, Uppsala Conflict Data Program

The war in Ukraine continued in June 2022 and intense fighting resumed in eastern Ukraine, causing nearly 2000 fatalities.

 

While the trends in Africa dominated the figures on the fatalities due to armed organized violence, we noted a downward trend in Europe and Americas when compared to May 2022. Meanwhile, the intensity of organized violence in Asia and the Middle East remained at a similar level.

 

The five deadliest state-based conflicts in June were Russia – Ukraine , Ethiopia: Oromiya , Mali: Government , Burkina Faso: Islamic State , and Somalia: Government .

 

Conflicts between unidentified non-state groups in Sudan dominated non-state violence in June 2022, causing nearly 150 fatalities in total. Similarly, the clashes between unidentified non-state groups in Nigeria were also among the deadliest non-state incidents. Non-state violence in DR Congo was also noteworthy during this month.

 

Nigeria and DR Congo were significantly affected by one-sided violence in June 2022, both witnessing over 300 civilian deaths in incidents deliberately targeting civilians. IS's one-sided attacks in Afghanistan, DR Congo, Mozambique, Nigeria and Syria caused over 350 fatalities in total during this month. One-sided violence by the government forces in Myanmar should also be noted.

Source: UCDP Candidate 22.0.6

Nanar Hawach, Uppsala Conflict Data Program

New data from the UCDP show that nearly 55 thousand people died in organized violence in the first half of 2022. This figure is noteworthy as we recorded almost 120 thousand fatalities in 2021, which was the highest yearly estimate since 2015.

 

Ukraine became the most conflict-affected country in the first half of 2022, followed by Nigeria and DR Congo. In February 2022, Russian forces invaded Ukraine from the North, South, and Eastern sectors. After facing fierce resistance, the Russian forces focused their operations in the East. Violence quickly reached the intensity level of war and Ukraine turned into the most conflict-affected country in 2022 as of July 2022, with nearly 30 thousand fatalities.

 

Ten most conflict-affected countries in the first half of 2022
1) Ukraine	6) Mexico
2) Nigeria	7) Myanmar
3) DR Congo	8) Burkina Faso
4) Yemen	9) Ethiopia
5) Mali	10) Syria

 

In Nigeria, JAS (commonly known as Boko Haram) struggled to reorganize following the death of its leader Shekau, in May 2021. After losing territory to ISWAP, JAS resurged in late 2021 and early 2022, escalating clashes between the two non-state actors throughout the first half of the year. Meanwhile, the third most conflict-affected country, DR Congo, continued to be the battleground for opposition groups, both domestic and from neighboring countries. The majority of violence was concentrated in Eastern Congo, specifically in the three provinces of Ituri, Nord Kivu, and Sud Kivu.

 

Five deadliest non-state conflicts in the first half of 2022
1) Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Sinaloa Cartel
2) IS - SDF
3) Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel
4) Arab – Masalit
5) Carteles Unidos - Jalisco Cartel New Generation

 

Violence between Mexican drug cartels dominated the list of deadliest non-state conflicts in the first half of 2022, with the conflict between the Jalisco Cartel New Generation and Sinaloa Cartel being the most violent one. Despite drug cartels being some of the most brutal non-state actors in the world, causing thousands of deaths yearly, they rarely receive the same attention as jihadist groups such as the Islamic State, Al-Qaeda, or Boko Haram. In recent years, Mexico's two biggest cartels have increased their influence in South America, with close ties to Colombian armed groups such as FARC dissidents, ELN, and Clan del Golfo. In Ecuador, Jalisco Cartel New Generation and Sinaloa Cartel support opposing gangs involved in the country's recent prison riots.

Source: UCDP Candidate 22.01.22.06

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